Weather Will Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago WB 9Z NBM: models went south overnight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88". As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00" Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looking like first frost/freeze potential next week west of BR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Ji said: most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday HRRR hardly shows anything in same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 6z euro ai continues back north. Almost looks like the runs a couple days ago now with over 1” for DC 6z Eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? I know Ai was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 33 minutes ago, Ji said: most of the precip from the Euro is Friday night and Saturday smh. Its been very aggressive with Saturday Yeah it really likes the overnight Friday Into Saturday rain. Kinda the only model showing that. Not even AI is as enthusiastic. 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wasn't the EuroAi and Eps combo the winning team over the weekend? Yeah it really led the way on the nor’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Practicing for winter. Ukie ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah it really likes the overnight Friday Into Saturday rain. Kinda the only model showing that. Not even AI is as enthusiastic. Yeah it really led the way on the nor’easter. the NAM3K jumped on board with the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the NAM3K jumped on board with the euro Enjoy it for now. It's gone after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I was going to say, I haven't seen this much activity non Winter since 2005 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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