ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Early on but the GFS might get a clue this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 AI GFS looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 GFS is substantially stronger and farther to the west at 48H 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty much same environment. When it shows something good…it’s the same environment. When it doesn’t, you’re on pikes peak compared to them. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 GFS figured it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 That’s a cave by the GFS. What a way to ruin a whole weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 5 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said: That’s a cave by the GFS. What a way to ruin a whole weekend lol Yep we knew 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Now that it is semi locked in let's see if the intensity can ramp up some. If we're going to have a weekend of awful weather it should at least be interesting. A modelled 990mb is certainly a decent storm, especially with the high pressure gradient, but nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Should be fine imo. Thank you! My friend will be relieved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 GEFS also coming in west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: Good to see the GFS coming back to reality at 12z a bit. Probably will cave hard at 18z or 0z like clockwork 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Wow one thing I did notice. The winds at 925 and 950 aren’t much different on the NAM and GFS. Both models are impressive at 950. I can’t see that on the euro, but I assume it may also apply to other models and not just GFS and NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years. October 2021 is not walking through that door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: October 2021 is not walking through that door We just don’t know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: October 2021 is not walking through that door some members are really strong and a good high to the north.. there's a chance this beefs up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Author Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: I do feel like these hybrid early season events more often result in boredom than anything else. So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations. 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt. 925mb 18z GFS 12z Euro I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer Go hangout in an apple orchard with 60 mph winds, that wont be boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 18z CMC also west and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on . Uhhmmm...do you think everyone here has forgotten your posts from this past sunday????...lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: if this happens I'm definitely taking a drive to the coast.. I'm sick of the same boring shit this summer Got to see how winds time with the tides. May take a ride down to Marshfield Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: October 2021 is not walking through that door Yeah that was 70kt plus at 950. Don’t see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations. 925mb 18z GFS 12z Euro I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too. Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Sorry for the personal question, but any thoughts on what this looks like for the Lincoln, NH area? Supposed to be going up there this weekend with the family and have until tomorrow to cancel and get my money back. Not trying to pay to be stuck in a cottage with two kids under 8 for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Uhhmmm...do you think everyone here has forgotten your posts from this past sunday????...lol Not sure what you’re talking about unless it was the reverse psychology one . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there one person here who wasn’t expecting that to happen? I mean if so , raise your hand and head to the corner and throw the dunce cap on . On 9/19/2026 at 6:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That thing never had a chance . Couldn’t understand all the excitement and wildness 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low. There’s a fair amount of folks here who have no idea what the potential is with this. Vort95 nailed it . Glad we recognized and jumped on board early and often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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