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October 2026 general discussion


Typhoon Tip
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18z Euro AI trying to develop something in the tropics but is kind of weak and goes east.. 18z GEFS have a few hits..  Gut feeling says we might get something big next weekend just looking at the set up..:weenie: but probably end up being sunny and 70 :lol:

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11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro AI trying to develop something in the tropics but is kind of weak and goes east.. 18z GEFS have a few hits..  Gut feeling says we might get something big next weekend just looking at the set up..:weenie: but probably end up being sunny and 70 :lol:

A big weenie 

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We try to convey this to the younger whippersnappers…but it’s hard when they didn’t live through the dry spells.  And they always feel that something has changed to cause it.  But it’s nothing like that..,it’s just the normal oscillation of what SNE goes through.  But alas…

I get that, but @CoastalWx has no excuse!

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Screenshot_20261016_182836_RadarScope.jpg

It seems over time, the size of warnings has grown, or they are issued earlier.  Special marine warnings for Chesapeake Bay this evening, and the line of storms was 1 hr out.  No OFB ahead yet either.

People are only willing to take so much time out of their day.  More is not always better.  Say one day we can give a spinner warnings 1 hr ahead.  So does that mean people need to go to their basement immediately?  That is absurd.  And say some do that, and nothing happens (which will for the majority), many will not be happy b/c it is a waste of time.

For large venue locations w/ lots of people, yes longer lead times are better, but that's the minority of the time.

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