Central PA Autumn 2026

[Voyager]

10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 1 historic storm & done type of Winter is on the table as well, such as 2016 or 1983.

Maybe we get lucky with extended periods of blocking, with several chances, such as 09-10 ?

Maybe it’s just too warm for much snow, such as the Winters of 97-98 or 19-20 ?

Hopefully we will have a chance of at least 1 block buster snowstorm in the heart of Winter!

Either way, I look forward to tracking it all with you guys on here again this season!

What I've bolded would work for me, as I'm not a fan of nickel and dime events that just slop up the roads with salt. I've always been a "go big or go home" guy, and as a driver I hate a dirty truck.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

43 when I left the house. Our perfect week marches on. 

[mahantango#1]

32 this morning.

[pawatch]

32 for the low this morning. Bumped the heat on…63in the house.

Was away for the day yesterday.

[mahantango#1]

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

What I've bolded would work for me, as I'm not a fan of nickel and dime events that just slop up the roads with salt. I've always been a "go big or go home" guy, and as a driver I hate a dirty truck.

I believe you'll see less salt on the roads. You might have to put chains on the truck this winter.

Yes, rock salt prices have significantly increased in Pennsylvania. Recent reports indicate that municipalities are facing sharp price hikes, with costs rising from approximately $88 per ton to around $160 per ton. This increase has prompted local governments to seek alternative suppliers and adjust their budgets accordingly. The surge in prices is attributed to various factors, including supply chain issues and increased demand during winter months

And now this too: https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania/experts-show-impact-of-road-salt-on-pa-waterways/

[mahantango#1]

13 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, I’ve been around on here a little bit during the offseason!

I really don’t do outlooks or predictions of my own, but I do read the upcoming Winter thoughts of pro forecasters & respected posters from the various regional forums on this website.

The main theme with this strong El Niño appears to generally show that above normal average temperatures are likely for December & possibly average above normal throughout the Winter. 

In terms of snow, there should be a greater chance of high impact coastal storms. Of course, the unknown is if we can time up some periods of at least normal seasonal cold, especially during the heart of Winter from mid January to mid February.

The hope for snow lovers is that we can time up an active subtropical jet with some periods of blocking with it being just cold enough. 

The 1 historic storm & done type of Winter is on the table as well, such as 2016 or 1983.

Maybe we get lucky with extended periods of blocking, with several chances, such as 09-10 ?

Maybe it’s just too warm for much snow, such as the Winters of 97-98 or 19-20 ?

Hopefully we will have a chance of at least 1 block buster snowstorm in the heart of Winter!

Either way, I look forward to tracking it all with you guys on here again this season!

I'm looking forward to your input on a potential storm this winter. 

[ChescoWx]

Today we should see highs from mid 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Saturday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday but by Friday we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Sunday. Of note 7 years ago today back in 2019 Chester County was at the start of a 3 day storm that left as much as 1.56" of rain at Coatesville 1E. This was the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor which tracked within about 190 miles of the county.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

I'm looking forward to your input on a potential storm this winter. 

Oh, there will be input from him.

And maps.

And more maps.

And even more maps. 

  

Love ya', @Blizzard of 93 Don't ever change. 

[ChescoWx]

Almost a 20 degree spread in morning low temperatures today within just a few miles across the area this morning. Elevation and terrain impacts.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh, there will be input from him.

And maps.

And more maps.

And even more maps. 

  

Love ya', @Blizzard of 93 Don't ever change. 

Thanks, I’m starting to get excited about the upcoming season.

Hopefully lots of short range tracking with plenty of maps that lead us to lots of shoveling snow for all of us!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks, I’m starting to get excited about the upcoming season.

Hopefully lots of short range tracking with plenty of maps that leads to lots of shoveling snow for all of us!

I'll be watching your back, you can be certain of it! 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll be watching your back, you can be certain of it! 

Hopefully our backs are sore from lots of shoveling this Winter!

[Voyager]

I know this is out of region, but interesting to me, and perhaps some others. Something to watch over the next 34-36 hours is an extremely rare severe outbreak potential over Central Arizona. From what I've heard and read, this is only the second time ever that the region was under an enhanced severe risk.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

39 upon leaving the home front this morning. Not much more can be said about this perfect week. 

[pawatch]

32 this morning, more white grass again this morning.

Good day fishing Monday.

[mahantango#1]

32 this moning.

[ChescoWx]

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Friday but this weekend we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Monday. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

[Voyager]

My niece was right in the middle of this one. Sounds like she and her property are ok. I'll let you know if she experienced anything bad or interesting.

[Voyager]

She didn't get the tornado, but did get a hail storm.

[Voyager]

Almost historical. Check out the radar presentation of this supercell in North Phoenix. and the hail it produced.

[WmsptWx]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Almost historical. Check out the radar presentation of this supercell in North Phoenix. and the hail it produced.

Tell us more about Poland Uncovered lol

[Voyager]

6 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Tell us more about Poland Uncovered lol

Lol...I saw that. I have no idea. It was supposed to be cropped out.

[pawatch]

27 for the low. 

[mahantango#1]

29 this morning.

[Voyager]

It was a balmy 36 for my low this morning.

[Jns2183]

WINTER ARRIVES LIKE A LION

Ten of Harrisburg's Most Wintry Starts to Winter, 1895–2026

TWO DECEMBERS. TWO VERY DIFFERENT WAYS TO REMEMBER WINTER.

Imagine it is December 1917, and Christmas is approaching in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The United States is at war. Headlines speak of battles overseas, troop mobilization, and a newly declared war against Austria-Hungary.

At home, people have a much more immediate concern: COAL.

For many families, coal is not a quaint old-fashioned detail or a decorative fireplace accessory. It is what keeps the house warm.

The warnings have been building for weeks.

On November 26, the Harrisburg Telegraph reports that city officials are considering coal cards to manage an anthracite shortage.

On December 4, it announces a 35-cent-per-ton increase in domestic anthracite prices.

By December 18, the paper is reporting promised coal-car shipments for Harrisburg and Steelton, while ice on the Susquehanna interferes with river coal deliveries.

Now think about what that means in a household with a coal-burning furnace.

It is not even Christmas.

The question is no longer whether the holiday will be white. It is whether the next coal delivery will come before the bin runs too low, and whether the household can afford it when it does.

And the weather is not cooperating.

Harrisburg records 6.6 inches of snow on December 8, followed by 7.0 inches on December 14.

Snow cover establishes itself on December 8 and survives 25 consecutive days through New Year's Day, every one of those days maintaining at least three inches on the ground.

There is a kind of winter that delivers a beautiful holiday scene.

And then there is a winter that takes possession of the landscape while the people living in it are wondering how they're going to keep warm.

Keep that December in mind for a moment.

Now jump forward almost a century, to December 19, 2009.

For many weather enthusiasts around central and southeastern Pennsylvania, the great pre-Christmas snowstorm is still a treasured memory.

The Harrisburg station in our study measured 8.8 inches from that storm, with far greater totals farther southeast.

For a little while, winter seemed to have arrived in spectacular fashion.

But our full Thanksgiving-to-New-Year's analysis tells a surprising second story.

Harrisburg accumulated 14.1 inches of snowfall during that 2009–10 scoring window, yet had only 11 days with at least an inch of snow on the ground, and its longest uninterrupted snow-covered stretch was seven days.

Warmth, rain, and rain falling on snow outweighed much of the snowfall's positive contribution.

Its final score was −4.88, placing it 44th among 130 eligible early winters.

The December 2009 storm was memorable.

The entire early-winter period was something else altogether.

THAT IS THE CONTRAST AT THE HEART OF THIS PROJECT.

One tremendous storm can make memories for a generation, while an older winter with less total snowfall can establish itself so thoroughly that the snow, the cold, the transportation problems, and even the fear of running short of heating fuel become part of everyday life.

We're not ranking which storm was the most spectacular.

We're asking something different:

WHICH YEARS DID WINTER TRULY ARRIVE LIKE A LION, TAKE HOLD BEFORE THE NEW YEAR, AND REFUSE TO LET GO?

HOW WE INVESTIGATED IT

We examined 131 Thanksgiving-to-New-Year's periods, from 1895–96 through 2025–26, and found 130 with sufficient Harrisburg-area observations for our primary ranking.

For consistency, each scoring window begins on the Monday before a standardized fourth-Thursday Thanksgiving and continues through January 1, inclusive. We use that calendar rule even in historical years when Thanksgiving was observed on a different day.

We developed the Early Winter Severity Index (EWVI-1).

Rather than simply adding up snowfall, it rewards three things.

SNOW COVER AND STAYING POWER (UP TO 55 POSITIVE POINTS)

Days with at least 1, 3, or 6 inches on the ground, plus the longest uninterrupted snow-covered run.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENTS (UP TO 30 POSITIVE POINTS)

Especially accumulating clusters of six inches or more. These clusters are defined from daily observations and are not automatically the same thing as individual meteorological storms.

PERSISTENT COLD (UP TO 15 POSITIVE POINTS)

Days when the high temperature remains at or below freezing, with additional credit for highs of 25°F or colder.

Then the index subtracts points for strong warm-ups, confidently classified rainfall, and rain falling on existing snow cover.

An otherwise impressive storm can belong to a disappointing overall early winter. Scores can even be negative, as our 2009 example shows.

We also developed a separate winter-arrival profile.

This examines the first measurable snow, the date by which 10% of the eventual October–May snowfall has accumulated, and the first confirmed seven-consecutive-day snowpack.

Those are different clocks.

A winter can deliver snow early without establishing lasting cover, and it can establish lasting cover before the bulk of the season's snow has arrived.

These timing measurements add insight without changing the original EWVI rankings.

This is a specific Harrisburg-area index, not a declaration about the ten greatest full winters in Pennsylvania history.

A wider five-region investigation exists, but only 28 of 131 seasons currently meet its full overlapping data requirements.

We'll use trustworthy regional observations to enhance the stories, without allowing missing early historical records to erase well-observed Harrisburg winters.

WHAT THE THREE OPENING INFOGRAPHICS SHOW

INFOGRAPHIC 1: THE HARRISBURG TOP 10

All ten ranked seasons, their EWVI scores, snowfall within the scoring window, number of snow-covered days, verified snowpack onset, and a glimpse of each year's historical setting.

The rankings are revealed upfront. The countdown articles will explain how each winter earned its place.

INFOGRAPHIC 2: HOW THE SCORING WORKS

The actual equations, event definitions, snow-cover thresholds, cold points, warmth and rain deductions, and a worked example for our highest-scoring winter.

It also shows how the separate onset measurements complement the main index.

INFOGRAPHIC 3: THE COUNTDOWN ROADMAP

Our plan is to travel from #10 to #1, one winter at a time, with four substantial high-resolution graphics for each year.

Every winter will receive:

1) AN INTEGRATED MASTER INFOGRAPHIC

Weather, historical setting, the exact score, and a coherent dated timeline woven together into one visually unified story.

2) A PENNSYLVANIA SNOWFALL, SNOW DEPTH, AND SWE PROGRESSION

Using a custom Pennsylvania digital elevation model, we'll show the evolution of snowfall and snow cover through dated observations.

Snow-water equivalent will be included where measurements or a defensible, clearly labeled model support it. Scattered station values will not be disguised as a fully observed statewide snowpack.

3) A HISTORICAL NARRATIVE GRAPHIC

We'll explore contemporary headlines, transportation, heating, prices, and the human experience of that particular winter.

4) A SPECIAL DEEP DIVE UNIQUE TO THAT YEAR

Whether it's a coal emergency, an extraordinary snow-cover streak, a succession of Christmas storms, or the flood risks lurking beyond the New Year, each winter will have its own distinctive story.

WEATHER DOESN'T HAPPEN OUTSIDE HISTORY

We will enter each year as though we do not already know what happens next.

We'll examine the previous winter, summer, and fall, then follow the weather one day at a time through the contemporary world people actually inhabited.

A family in 1902 had different heating problems, wages, travel options, and forecast information from a family in 1981 or a weather enthusiast online in 2002.

That matters.

So do the details.

What did a ton of coal cost?

What could a dollar buy?

Were streets and railroads passable?

What were families reading at breakfast?

What could they reasonably have expected from tomorrow's weather?

Original newspaper reporting and historical photographs will be distinguished from illustrations and narrative reconstruction.

Weather station readings will be distinguished from estimates.

Where the surviving records cannot support a claim, we'll say so.

AND NOW, THE COUNTDOWN

We begin with #10: 1981–82, a winter that gave Harrisburg nine consecutive snow-covered days in December before the snowpack retreated.

Eventually we will arrive at #1: 1917–18, where those wartime coal headlines and the extraordinary December snowpack await us again, in their full historical setting.

TEN WINTERS.
TEN JOURNEYS INTO THE PAST.
FORTY MAJOR GRAPHICS.

Some winters give you one great storm to remember.

Others take over your roads, your calendar, your landscape, and, in an era of fuel shortages, your thoughts about whether there's enough coal left to get through the next cold night.

Let's find out which winters really arrived like a lion.

RESEARCH AND SOURCE NOTES

The 1917 coal-shortage context comes from contemporary Harrisburg Telegraph reporting on November 26, December 4, and December 18, 1917.

These reports document rationing discussions, price increases, shipment efforts, and ice-related delivery difficulties. They do not establish that all or most Harrisburg households had exhausted their entire heating-fuel supply by Christmas.

Historical newspaper sources:

November 26, 1917:
https://newspaperarchive.com/harrisburg-telegraph-nov-26-1917-p-1/

December 4, 1917:
https://newspaperarchive.com/harrisburg-telegraph-dec-04-1917-p-1/

December 18, 1917:
https://newspaperarchive.com/harrisburg-telegraph-dec-18-1917-p-1/

Snowfall totals, snow-cover runs, EWVI scores, and the 2009–10 rank come from the project's Harrisburg station analysis and EWVI-1 scoring tables.

The three introductory posters contain interpretive winter and historical imagery. They are not archival photographs or measured statewide historical snow fields. Dated observations, reconstructions, and source methods will be documented throughout the series.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 hours ago, Voyager said:

Almost historical. Check out the radar presentation of this supercell in North Phoenix. and the hail it produced.

Makes me wonder if my grandma in Cave Creek, AZ got hit with anything noteworthy, I'll have to reach out to her.  Low of 39 here.  Onward.

[ChescoWx]

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. Temperatures will fall from the low 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's by morning. Our stretch of beautiful autumnal weather continues through at least the next week! With little to no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal through Sunday before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 3 degrees above normal. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

[canderson]

Really wish I could get out and enjoy this perfect autumn weather.