Central PA Autumn 2026

[Voyager]

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

[mahantango#1]

43 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

indeed It will not be pleasant. 

[pawatch]

84 for the high…as mentioned a record here. Old record was 83.

57 degrees this morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

62 at the house, 57 through the low rurals. Got a muggy one to get through today. Onward. 

[Jonesy56]

shall we discuss the total and complete collapse of every single model and ensemble model for this past system. The HRRR literally had a negative skill score at 3 hours that's how bad it was. and it wasn't just the American the euro is just as bad I don't know what that hints for this winter time but that was the most epic and total failure I have seen by models in a long long time

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I’m a little late, but I finally got the chance to check out the CPA Weather Lab site you put together and wanted to say thanks. Really nice interface with a lot of useful info one place for our neck of the woods. Appreciate your efforts!


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[ChescoWx]

Of note 141 years ago today back in 1885 Chester County was on the last day of a 3 day storm that left as much as 2.48" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 100 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 70's to low 80's which is about 15 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the low to mid 50's. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 8 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.31" according to the ChescoWx model.

[canderson]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

The three Cleveland v TB games Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be pretty wild.  

[ChescoWx]

Extended Ensemble outlook (not a forecast) shows a cooler trend than normal for last week of October and into the first couple weeks of November.

 

[ChescoWx]

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear!

Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time.

ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even.

The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees.

For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7.

About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard.

Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next.

Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test!

The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here:
https://chescowx.com/current-weather/

Let me know if any questions!

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

The three Cleveland v TB games Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be pretty wild.  

Game 3 tomorrow was moved up from 6pm to 1pm to try and avoid some of the weather issues. 

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Game 3 tomorrow was moved up from 6pm to 1pm to try and avoid some of the weather issues. 

Which is insane. I'm sorry, but the American League Championship Series should not be played during the day for any reason. If the weather sucks, postpone. People are paying thousands of dollars for a game that may not happen very often, especially for the two clubs in question. There should never be a scenario in which a chair is without an ass to fill it because work gets in the way. 

[Mikeymac5306]

50 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Which is insane. I'm sorry, but the American League Championship Series should not be played during the day for any reason. If the weather sucks, postpone. People are paying thousands of dollars for a game that may not happen very often, especially for the two clubs in question. There should never be a scenario in which a chair is without an ass to fill it because work gets in the way. 

You do realize the majority of playoff games in the 70's and 80's and even some 90's were during the day? Like on Tuesday and what not? 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You do realize the majority of playoff games in the 70's and 80's and even some 90's were during the day? Like on Tuesday and what not? 

Game 5 in 1988 was the last time an LCS game started that early.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You do realize the majority of playoff games in the 70's and 80's and even some 90's were during the day? Like on Tuesday and what not? 

I went to ALCS games in Baltimore on weekday afternoons in 1979 and 1983. I miss afternoon postseason baseball. 

[Jns2183]

This makes me sad. I know it hasn’t been great but it’s still another data point to consider when trying to get a feel for a forecast. Plus it’s had its wins over the years. It’s being replaced by the RRFS, correct? Some other legacy models being replaced by this too, no?  Less weather models to check is never a good thing in my book. 

So now we get the RRFS, which is a hell of a lot more than just replacing the NAM with a newer model. NOAA is basically cleaning house, retiring the NAM, its 3km nests, SREF, HREF, and most of the HiResW models in favor of one massive 3km system covering most of North America, updating every hour and forecasting out to 84 hours. Along with it comes the REFS ensemble with 14 members, although there's a catch. Twelve of those members come from the same RRFS model family, with six being older runs, and the other two come from the HRRR. So while we're gaining resolution and coverage, we're also losing some of the diversity between completely different models. There's a difference between 14 models independently agreeing on something and 14 relatives all being confidently wrong at the same family reunion.

I'm pretty excited about what this thing could do, especially with mesoscale snowbands, convection, and heavy rainfall. But I'm also skeptical about how well it will handle those sharp thermal gradients that can turn 15 inches of snow into 3 inches of sleet over the distance of a few exits on I-81. The early verification has been encouraging, but we haven't seen it survive a full Pennsylvania winter yet. Hopefully we're getting a significant upgrade and not just replacing our one drunk uncle with an entire family of them. I highly doubt it can go anywhere near the entertainment value of the nam when it was wrong and that was the only redeeming part of being wrong Either way, November 3rd begins a pretty interesting new chapter in weather forecasting.



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[WmsptWx]

5 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

You do realize the majority of playoff games in the 70's and 80's and even some 90's were during the day? Like on Tuesday and what not? 

Yes and we also refused to let blacks play with whites. Not during the 70s - 90s, but it happened. Things change. Progress occurs. Stadiums have lights now. There's no need to be playing baseball during the day, especially during the league championship series.

[Voyager]

Anyone else seeing windy conditions right now (9:50pm)?

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Anyone else seeing windy conditions right now (9:50pm)?

Mid teens here 

[canderson]

48 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Yes and we also refused to let blacks play with whites. Not during the 70s - 90s, but it happened. Things change. Progress occurs. Stadiums have lights now. There's no need to be playing baseball during the day, especially during the league championship series.

It’s gonna rain all night there. Friday too. They have no choice. 
 

Thursday

A chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 62. East wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[mahantango#1]

 

US National Weather Service State College PA

 

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10/15/2026 5 AM: A cold front will drop across PA on Friday (Oct 16th), making thunderstorms as it does so. Some may make damaging winds. A tornado is not out of the question. The strongest storms will likely be right along the front as it passes

[pawatch]

50 degrees this morning. the last day before the fronts move in.