Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[wthrmn654]

Nam doesn't look to bad either.  Put it in the books. Tracks much better concrnsus tonight

[Prue11]

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous 

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

[Neblizzard]

0z Euro slams into NJ, widespread 2 inches of rain and strong winds for NYC/LI/NJ

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

0z Euro slams into NJ, widespread 2 inches of rain and strong winds for NYC/LI/NJ

Yep stronger run. Gfs also caved. 

[Neblizzard]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

If the 0z EURO is right , that’s exactly what will happen. 

[jm1220]

Big time beach erosion and flood risk with a track like that. 

[wthrmn654]

No change from Upton , already passed there usual time when they change/ issue things

[nycwinter]

upton continues to downplay the threat for the nyc area..

[TriPol]

40 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

upton continues to downplay the threat for the nyc area..

They're waiting for the GFS to decide what it wants to do. If the 12z GFS does what the 0z GFS did, then they'll change.

[TriPol]

The 06Z GFS is broadly similar to the 00Z run, but there are several important differences in timing, intensity and the eventual track of the coastal storm. The first notable change is that the 06Z GFS develops and deepens the cyclone somewhat faster. By Friday morning, the 06Z run has the low near 997 mb, roughly a couple of millibars deeper than the 00Z run at the same valid time. Through Friday night and early Saturday, that difference gradually shrinks. By Saturday morning and afternoon, both runs are clustered near 991 to 993 mb, showing remarkably good agreement on the storm's peak intensity.

The larger difference involves what happens after the cyclone reaches its mature stage. The 00Z GFS showed a clearer and more sustained westward retrograde, bringing the low back toward the New York and New Jersey coastline after it stalled offshore. The 06Z GFS still stalls the cyclone southeast of Long Island, but the westward motion is less pronounced. Instead, the system largely meanders near the 70°W longitude corridor while gradually weakening.

The 06Z run also produces a particularly intense northwest-side precipitation band Saturday, placing Long Island, New York City, northern New Jersey and southern New England beneath a prolonged rain shield. Overall, the 06Z run does not represent a major departure from 00Z. Both depict a deep coastal cyclone that moves north, stalls south of New England, and slowly weakens. The principal uncertainty remains how far west the trapped circulation ultimately drifts.