October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Diggiebot]

8 minutes ago, DirtySnowDen said:

If you swinr your eyes. You can the eye form

 

Meanwhile Hawaii is about to get three hurricanes in one year 

[DirtySnowDen]

[DirtySnowDen]

It’s Spanish for “The Niño”

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Yeah something strange is going on. Probably happened back in the 1700s too. 

 

 

 

Crock of shit! 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Look at that first loop!!!

That's 100% tropical. Look at that convection wrap tightly around the center. Beautiful. Riding right along the Gulf Stream. Perfect location. 

Did I get @WxWatcher007 as pumped as @ineedsnow here? 

See what I am saying here?  My "rants" are not w/o merit as to NHC not acknowledging legit TCs.  The Jan 2023 event is perhaps the most glaring I have ever seen, and this is when they have long broaden the definition of a TC (2005 forced everyone too!) and declare them more.  This is good as we are calling things for what they are, but still, you get odd stuff like this that gets ignored operationally.  Yes, I know the Jan 2023 thing got included in post-season analysis, but that's not the point.

Why was it not declared operationally?  My guess is that they did not want to name something in Jan close the East Coast b/c the media would freak, and NHC would have been overrun w/ calls and inquires, so they just deferred to post-season analysis.  Sorry, that isn't an excuse.  It's your job to monitor and designate TCs in the Atlantic and EPAC in real-time.  The atmosphere doesn't care what the calendar says or about our rules or policies, it does what it does!

So you see my concern about this current storm and how it may evolve and what may or may not be done from authority.  This ST or T evolution is not a low-prob or far-fetched scenario, whether you look at it from a meteorological objective or subjective POV!
 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats an over performer here. 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.

Many outages in portions of CT if that verified. 

[DirtySnowDen]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Did I get @WxWatcher007 as pumped as @ineedsnow here? 

See what I am saying here?  My "rants" are not w/o merit as to NHC not acknowledging legit TCs.  The Jan 2023 event is perhaps the most glaring I have ever seen, and this is when they have long broaden the definition of a TC (2005 forced everyone too!) and declare them more.  This is good as we are calling things for what they are, but still, you get odd stuff like this that gets ignored operationally.  Yes, I know the Jan 2023 thing got included in post-season analysis, but that's not the point.

Why was it not declared operationally?  My guess is that they did not want to name something in Jan close the East Coast b/c the media would freak, and NHC would have been overrun w/ calls and inquires, so they just deferred to post-season analysis.  Sorry, that isn't an excuse.  It's your job to monitor and designate TCs in the Atlantic and EPAC in real-time.  The atmosphere doesn't care what the calendar says or about our rules or policies, it does what it does!

So you see my concern about this current storm and how it may evolve and what may or may not be done from authority.  This ST or T evolution is not a low-prob or far-fetched scenario, whether you look at it from a meteorological objective or subjective POV!
 

No Sandy was. Because it wasn’t tropical, NHC “threw hands up” saying it’s ET.

[DirtySnowDen]

[DirtySnowDen]

Really curious what the Goofus does 

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, DirtySnowDen said:

No Sandy was. Because it wasn’t tropical, NHC “threw hands up” saying it’s ET.

Don't even get me started w/ Sandy!    I'll spare you all a rant write-up on that!

One thing I will say, at a SNE conference I think 12 years ago, one of the BOX mets who is the resident WFO TC expert was talking about the reanalysis of big HUs that hit New England.  And Sandy came up.  He was asked if he thought it was still a TC at landfall, and he said, w/ his boss (MIC) on stage w/ him, "offline after a few beers, I say yes it was!"

[Torch Tiger]

0z NAM touches 979mb around 80-100mi south of LI

[Torch Tiger]

Love the RGEM track, basically Sandy -lite

[Diggiebot]

Winter storms we wait for the ticks east on game day 

[Spaizzo]

If you swing your eyes. You can the eye form
 

Next to the butt cheeks se of obx?


.

[DirtySnowDen]

Last post for the night; it’s looking worse and worse for us. All depends on if it does a 50/50 split or a 40/60.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, DirtySnowDen said:

Last post the nighr, it’s looking worse and worse for us. All depends on if it does a 50/50 split or a 40/60.

You’re talking about the High? 

[vortex95]

On Wed, five sites in ME/Quebec set all-time record high pressures for Sep. @CoastalWx take note. It's an exceptional pattern!
Frenchville
Montreal
Quebec City
Val D’Or
Chibougamau-Chapais. 
 

[DirtySnowDen]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re talking about the High? 

Yes.

[Hailstoned]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Crock of shit! 

trumpy, trumpy temper tantrum...

[DirtySnowDen]

25 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Next to the butt cheeks se of obx?


.

I’m thinking  a soft, yet strong landfall on LI, doing its dance and meandering around BIS as it kaboots in its feeble state Monday. 

[vortex95]

40-48 hr the 00z HRRR shows it taking on more ST characteristics w/ a more focused core wind field.  RRFS does this but it take more than 24 hr after this time, and the low just meanders around to the S of us for the entire 84 hr period!    Lots of time to do odds stuff!  @WxWatcher007 I know will be closely tracking the exact sfc low position relative to the SSTs!
 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

trumpy, trumpy temper tantrum...

Hailstoned hailstoned groan and boned….

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Crock of shit! 

Why so? Their methodology seems rock solid and makes logical sense.

[Torch Tiger]

love that hrrr - minimal impacts here through Sat pm.  

[OrangeCTWX]

0z NAM/ICON/GFS all show this turning left into NJ , sorta similar to what the EURO AI has been showing but slightly more south. Looks like we got our consensus.  Congrats NJ 

[DirtySnowDen]

Not done yet “doing the shuffle.”