Tropical Storm Edouard

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2026 in a nutshell? Yeah. I'm not flying down.  

As hurting as the convection is, at least it is nicely circularly-banded and looks more like a classic TC.  Did not have that at all w/ Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, or Dolly.  Shear was the big issue for those.  Edouard's issue is dry air, but you can do a bit better overall for max TC intensity when only dry air is an issue I have noticed empirically.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the 
center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and 
early evening hours.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed 
was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate 
advisory.  Since that time, there has been a pause in the 
organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the 
northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system 
this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to 
around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this 
afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two.  
The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the 
pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern
Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment
tonight and Tuesday morning.  As a result, nearly all of the
dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its
approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening
occuring in the final hours before landfall.  Given that the system
is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems
likely Tuesday morning.  The NHC forecast calls for intensification
during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result
in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge
Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast
with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is
expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast
points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak
intensity in the forecast points below.
 
Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the
next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore
along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern
Texas Tuesday night.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on
Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest
Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to
Cameron.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of
3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate
coast within the warning area.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and 
Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is 
likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding 
may also be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 28.6N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

[vortex95]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dry air definitely still looks to be an issue, and that was a clear limiting factor even when this was a lemon. I agree that there's no one size fits all for TCs, which is why the Twitter conversation sometimes gets frustrating because cold top convection does not automatically equal RI. You can see the dry air on the northern flank clearly, and it seems clear that it's having an impact, though I think the expanding outflow on the northern side of Edouard does limit it some. 

 

I've always been of the opinion that you need organization before substantial intensification so that's what I look for. Today we've seen substantial progress in that department. We went from a weak and elongated low this morning

To a much tighter wind field, with a meaningful pressure drop this evening on the first recon pass of the evening. 

I still think an overnight/morning convective burst aided by diurnal maximum given the developing inner core should allow for modest intensification, with an added boost from frictional convergence. Like someone else said earlier, I think this is one of those short fuse homebrew cases where we do say if this had more time it could have intensified more substantially. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch given the radar coverage we will have from now through landfall. Tonight I'll be watching to see 1) if the reduction in central convection leads to a collapse in the nascent inner core and if not 2) how soon we see the overnight convective burst I'm expecting. 18z HAFS has that happening around 5am. 

Some get *far* to impressed w/ large MCS areas w/ very cold cold tops for nascent TCs.  Yes it is intense convection, but that does not correlate well when it blows up very fast b/c that often mean it will dissipate just as fast.  And the collapsing convection hinders organization at low-levels, .It can also happen when a system of mdt TS status.  You get this immense area of very cold cloud tops, sometimes below -100 C, in a rather symmetric blob, calked a CCC, but there is no banding.  When this happens, the TC often is stunted in intensification until the CCC feature goes away.

If Edouard has a blow up of convection overnight, watch closely,  Does it form in a coherent band as we are seeing on the N side now, or is is just random blobs (zits!) expanding radially?  Also, you can have a combo of this.

Banding now on the N side is good, but nothing on the S side,  This implies dry air wrapping in.  Also, the banding on the N side may be due to frictional convergence from the LA coast.  Still, that can increase max winds b/c the stronger convection mixed down higher winds aloft better and the band is pushing against weak high pressure to the NE

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the 
center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and 
early evening hours.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed 
was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate 
advisory.  Since that time, there has been a pause in the 
organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the 
northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system 
this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to 
around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this 
afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two.  
The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the 
pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern
Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment
tonight and Tuesday morning.  As a result, nearly all of the
dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its
approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening
occuring in the final hours before landfall.  Given that the system
is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems
likely Tuesday morning.  The NHC forecast calls for intensification
during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result
in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge
Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast
with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is
expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast
points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak
intensity in the forecast points below.
 
Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the
next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore
along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern
Texas Tuesday night.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on
Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest
Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to
Cameron.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of
3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate
coast within the warning area.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and 
Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is 
likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding 
may also be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 28.6N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

IMHO, I think they are really pushing the limit for  HU watch here.  Yes, the pressure is down, but the convective area waned considerably at the time until about an hor ago, yet NHC did not even acknowledge this clear cycle down on sat?  Again, I think they tend to not include if they can anything that show weaker or a struggle, but as posts noted on the thread in the last few hours, Edouard looks not so good (skeletal).  So I am just speaking out loud here what others might be thinking as well and not thinking in an isolated vacuum!

Yes, the risk is there, but err'ing on the side of caution I find influence more by social pressure rather than sticking to the met science these days, which has advanced big time over the decades.  And, yes, I am aware of what HU Humberto did in Sep 2007 in the very same area, but that was an exceptional event, no other like that on record, so that alone is not enough.  Also objectively, current environmental conditions concerning dry air are a sig problem as evidenced by the wane of convection earlier and what we see just to the N on the mid-level WV, so that would count against such aggressive RI.

All I am saying is that the door swings both ways here, so in Edouard's case given the factors, IMHO would be more logical/practical to split it down the middle (steady but more modest straightening). rather than chose any one clear direction until we actually see evidence of RI. esp on satellite/radar and it being in a data rich area.  It's not like we will be in the dark as to trends hour-by-hour.  Lots of platform sfc obs off the LA coast, as one example.

I know I am verbose and sound pedantic, but it shows how there is a *lot* to consider in TC forecasting, and forecasting in general.  How one chose to go in any given situation is subjective of course.  My position is that I do not go high aggressive in a forecast until I see clear reason to do so ((in other words, not forecast an outlier, rare, or exceptional event unless it is clear it has a good chance of occuring), and the amount of wx data and its detail these days, one can afford to "wait and see" more IMHO.

[Scott747]

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2026 in a nutshell? Yeah. I'm not flying down.  

Hey at least it's a chasable track now.

82 between Port Arthur and Holly Beach has a couple of bridges to take refuge on with a weaker storm like this when surge comes in.

Of course they are teasing you with the hurricane watch not to mention recon with the 'eyewall beginning to form.

 

[Floydbuster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i4xnjcMme0

[Chinook]

small feature that looks like an eye, but of course a true eye should come with a hurricane

 

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, Chinook said:

small feature that looks like an eye, but of course a true eye should come with a hurricane

 

Yes, you can get mid-level eyes appear even in the TD stage. 

In this case, since there is no deep convection over the center, it is lower-level feature w/ shallow convection around it that makes it look like an eye.

Look at the platform obs to the SW.  NE winds?  Talk about a small circulation!

The small TC for rapid intensity changes is tricky.  A small TC is more sensitive to dry air intrusions or shear than a larger one, but at the same time, having a small RMW promotes RI easier.  Mesoscale factors in the inner core come into play, and are very tough to fcst.  Recall HU Oscar a few years ago? That had one of the smallest RMW for a Atlantic HU on record and models had no clue!
 

[Windspeed]

Gains in organization got us a TS and some slight increase in inflow and wind, but Edouard needs deeper cells to wrap the nascent core. A moist environment was sampled, but some pesky pockets of stable mid-level air mass may be inhibiting deeper growth. The forecast discussion anticipates convection in the preceding hours to landfall, which could quickly spin up such a tiny vortex. Otherwise, Edouard will have maxed out its potential here. I wouldn't say the system has outperformed yet. I think we suspected the system to get named. With the forecast calling for additional strengthening now, however, I dare say it will underperform if convection doesn't take off prior to landfall. Which I find amusing now, given where we were 24 hours ago.

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094626737204466099?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


.

[Scott747]

HAFS-A goes NAM into landfall.

14 mb drop the last 3 hrs....

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Scott747 said:

HAFS-A goes NAM into landfall.

14 mb drop the last 3 hrs....

I swear I just peeked at it and was going to post. Very interesting. HAFS-B is more muted but gets it close to hurricane strength. 

[Scott747]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I swear I just peeked at it and was going to post. Very interesting. HAFS-B is more muted but gets it close to hurricane strength. 

If it starts deepening into daybreak then it may be onto something...

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Gains in organization got us a TS and some slight increase in inflow and wind, but Edouard needs deeper cells to wrap the nascent core. A moist environment was sampled, but some pesky pockets of stable mid-level air mass may be inhibiting deeper growth. The forecast discussion anticipates convection in the preceding hours to landfall, which could quickly spin up such a tiny vortex. Otherwise, Edouard will have maxed out its potential here. I wouldn't say the system has outperformed yet. I think we suspected the system to get named. With the forecast calling for additional strengthening now, however, I dare say it will underperform if convection doesn't take off prior to landfall. Which I find amusing now, given where we were 24 hours ago.

In marginal or so-so conditions, a system can get organized quickly when it comes to a LLCC and the TD/weak TS stage, but true RI going 25-30 kt in 18 hr is a significantly more of a challenge or unsure.

I'd more concerned about RI here if the environment was marginal due to mdt shear and surrounding environment was sufficiently most as that can lead to RI in some cases.  See here:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/146/11/mwr-d-18-0020.1.xml
 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

If it starts deepening into daybreak then it may be onto something...

Yep. And we’ll see it happening on radar. Homebrew systems are interesting more often than not imo. Here’s another one.

[vortex95]

35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I swear I just peeked at it and was going to post. Very interesting. HAFS-B is more muted but gets it close to hurricane strength. 

It appears HAFS-A/B are in error b/c they both show strong convection right over the LLCC 03 and 06z, and this is resulting in feedback.  I attached the fcst hr 3 valid 03z from the HAFS-A/B.  That did not verify. 

Also, the strong N side convective band on sat we see now is not handled well.

So their later fcst hours are questionable. These small differences in initialization when dealing w/ convection and structure can result in large errors.

The HAFS is known to do a great job, but tiny TCs like that are not common, and I don't have a feel for their performance in such cases. 

It is tempting to be impressed by the hires models now, but they can give very realistic and precise-looking output that can be precisely wrong.

No change in in winds or pressure last recon pass 0444z.

So I and hesitant on RI still.  Sometimes, I go to myself, "prove it to me!" that X can happen, and sometimes I am proven wrong!  But I try to not let "just b/c the models say so" or "NHC says this" influence independent judgement and gut in forecasting.  Doing very short-term "what has happened up until now and trends" and what is current -- that I put more weight towards.

Edouard's case is almost like what convection will do during a big svr day fcst, and you know how fickle and uncertain that can be!

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It appears HAFA-A/B are in error b/c  they both show strong convection right over the LLCC 03 and 06z, and this is resulting in feedback.  I attached the fcst hr 3 valid 03z from the HAFS-A.  That did not verify.

 

Good point. We’ll see if there’s a convective burst over the center in the coming hours. Like your post earlier stated, models are going to struggle forecasting intensity here. The environment as it stands tells us a lot, and we’ll see how close to the ceiling Edouard gets. 

[vortex95]

Here's something that I find very interesting I just noticed, and can't recall seeing or noticing this before.  We know the shear is low overall, but look at the SWIR loop (channel can see LLCC better at night).

Notice over the LLCC two tiny quick flares of convection shearing off to the NNE. So it appears there is some kind shear present, and given all the deep convection is on the N side, that makes sense there is some southerly shear present!.

Also, on the SE side of the storm, look at the line of cirrus moving steadily WNW, faster than the storm is moving.  Also, the convective band SE quad has it anvils shearing WNW.  So this indicates some ESE shear impinging on the storm as well (different level?).

For a TC of avg or large size, or one that was already strong, such shear would likely be brushed off and not a factor, but for a small, weak TC?  This is what I meant about how sensitive small TCs can be to even subtle factors/changes in the environment.

And all this analysis above is of value.  First, as I noted I can't recall seem such localized shear over a LLCC like this when environmental is shear is low, so I add that to my TC analysts skill, and second, you can see how the finer details here can tell you a lot for nowcasting and have big implications to one's fcst thought process!

 

[GaWx]

From pro met. “USTropics”, here’s a very detailed post that I won’t pretend to understand fully. Any opinions?

“There are a few things making the satellite presentation appear that Edouard is weakening, but don’t let these processes fool you. This is not land proximity or dry air entrainment (WV would show this). The full process we are witnessing;

During the initial ‘ramp up,’ deep convection is typically asymmetric. This creates intense, localized potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. The ‘ramp down’ (where cloud tops warm and deep convection appears to collapse) is the system digesting these anomalies. The asymmetric PV is sheared out by the developing cyclonic flow and mixed into the symmetric mean vortex. Edouard is simply spending its energy aligning its low-level and mid-level circulation centers rather than fueling vertical updrafts.

Central pressure is a response to the integrated column warming (hydrostatic balance) and the broadening of the wind field (gradient wind). When the initial convective bursts collapse like it did earlier, they leave behind a thick mid-to-upper level stratiform deck and a broad area of latent heat release. This residual warm core forces the mass field to continue adjusting. The central pressure drops as the wind field expands, even though the intense, localized vertical velocities (and thus cold cloud tops) have temporarily vanished. This
Is why recon is still finding pressure drops.

This lull is actually highly productive for the storm. As the PV concentrates in the center and the pressure drops, the inertial stability of the inner core increases dramatically. High inertial stability resists radial outflow, meaning that any subsequent latent heat release will be trapped locally near the center. 

In addition, we have to account for diurnal convective pulsing. Deep convection typically peaks in the early morning hours (the ‘ramp up’) and naturally wanes by mid-to-late afternoon (the ‘ramp down’). If a system is undergoing vortex alignment during the daytime/evening, the lack of convection looks like a structural failure on infrared satellite, even while reconnaissance aircraft find a falling pressure.

Once the center is vertically stacked and the inner core has achieved high inertial stability, the next convective burst hits a dynamical tipping point. Because the heating is now occurring in a highly symmetric, stable environment, the energy efficiently projects onto the symmetric vortex. This triggers a much more sustainable and deep period of intensification.”

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

From pro met. “USTropics”, here’s a very detailed post that I won’t pretend to understand fully. Any opinions?

“There are a few things making the satellite presentation appear that Edouard is weakening, but don’t let these processes fool you. This is not land proximity or dry air entrainment (WV would show this). The full process we are witnessing;

During the initial ‘ramp up,’ deep convection is typically asymmetric. This creates intense, localized potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. The ‘ramp down’ (where cloud tops warm and deep convection appears to collapse) is the system digesting these anomalies. The asymmetric PV is sheared out by the developing cyclonic flow and mixed into the symmetric mean vortex. Edouard is simply spending its energy aligning its low-level and mid-level circulation centers rather than fueling vertical updrafts.

Central pressure is a response to the integrated column warming (hydrostatic balance) and the broadening of the wind field (gradient wind). When the initial convective bursts collapse like it did earlier, they leave behind a thick mid-to-upper level stratiform deck and a broad area of latent heat release. This residual warm core forces the mass field to continue adjusting. The central pressure drops as the wind field expands, even though the intense, localized vertical velocities (and thus cold cloud tops) have temporarily vanished. This
Is why recon is still finding pressure drops.

This lull is actually highly productive for the storm. As the PV concentrates in the center and the pressure drops, the inertial stability of the inner core increases dramatically. High inertial stability resists radial outflow, meaning that any subsequent latent heat release will be trapped locally near the center. 

In addition, we have to account for diurnal convective pulsing. Deep convection typically peaks in the early morning hours (the ‘ramp up’) and naturally wanes by mid-to-late afternoon (the ‘ramp down’). If a system is undergoing vortex alignment during the daytime/evening, the lack of convection looks like a structural failure on infrared satellite, even while reconnaissance aircraft find a falling pressure.

Once the center is vertically stacked and the inner core has achieved high inertial stability, the next convective burst hits a dynamical tipping point. Because the heating is now occurring in a highly symmetric, stable environment, the energy efficiently projects onto the symmetric vortex. This triggers a much more sustainable and deep period of intensification.”

I'm sorry, but IMHO the quoted post from another site  @GaWx posted says a lot w/o saying much.  To me, it seems like ChatGPT output that is tweaked and adjusted manually here and there to make it look like less AI or just explains the idealized TC intensification process.

This statement is a red flag as to Edouard's state now:

"Edouard is simply spending its energy aligning its low-level and mid-level circulation centers rather than fueling vertical updrafts"

The environmental shear is low, so the low and mid-level vortex, how can they align in the first place?  Yes there is some light shear, but not enough to make the vortex tilted in any meaningful way.  Yes, the convection on the N side, but it is not sheared convection, it is more circular banding, and convection lacking in the S quad is due to dry air entrainment primarily.

And a TC does not "spend energy" aligning a low and mid-level vortex.  Oh it can fight off shear w/ repeated convective pulsing, but the shear needs to relax for real solid organization to take place most of the time.  The environmental shear dominates, not the TC, esp. in nascent stages.

"This is not land proximity or dry air entrainment (WV would show this)."

Um, yes it is, at least for dry air entraiment.  WV *does* show this, and so does the SHIPS output for 700-500 environmental RH (it is 42% at 06z (that's down from 48% at 00z).
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al052026/stext/26090106AL0526_ships.txt

Also, look at the convection on the N and E side now, it pulsing up quickly in irregular blobs.  I think that is due to some ESE shear impacting the system, as I noted in a previous post, and shear will make dry air entrainment easier.

Land proximity is not too much of a big deal, not when that land is flat.  If the environmental conditions are ideal, then it does not matter,  Look what Michael did in Oct 2018 right up to the last minute and Charley in Aug 2004.  Prolixity to land matters most when high mountains are present, like Hispaniola or Taiwan.  You can get dry air downsoping that messes w/ the TC and its outer circulation disrupted, leading to some odd eye tracks/wobbles (Taiwan is famous for this).

I think Edouard is slowly improving in organization overall. Environmental conditions are not overly hostile, but not that good either, so what we are seeing is to be about expected.

And going back to the other site's post, I find it unnecessarily complex/technical, and as @GaWx said "I won't pretend to understand fully."  What does that tell you?  IMHO, mets that post practical and straightforward info, infused some more advanced stuff, but able to connect it to operational meteorology w/o making the avg met or wx enthusiast confused, is what to look for.  Some ppl try to impress w/ a lot of tech talk and that convince others that "they must know what they are talking about!"  So beware!

It's good that the other site post was posted here for cross-examination.  There are a lot of wx hustlers, armchairs mets, or ppl that just have more to learn. I have seen plenty and can spot them a mile away.

[Windspeed]

^ I concur. There were some fallacies pertaining to the current particular situation with Edouard versus just some rather highly detailed overexplaining of the prototypical pre-intensification process we see in early onset TCs with respect to shallow convection. At any rate, I wouldn't go so far as to say it was AI regurgitation. But I did scratch my head as I don't see how some of that applies here. We may very well see deep convection take off due to internal dynamics nearto Eduardo's small vortex this morning (and there are hints that may be starting to occur on radar and satellite), but I digress.

[Windspeed]

Deeper cells appear to be trying to build around the small central vortex. Also, it does appear that the southern side of the circulation is beginning to fill in with precipitation somewhat and perhaps is feeling the lower central pressure with increasing low-level westerly flow. Now, to see if ongoing deeper convection does take off before the window closes this morning.

[vortex95]

NHC follows the 00z HAFS-B, but here is the current 09z EIR, and the fcst EIR valid 09z from the HAFS-B.

This I find a problem often the days, some stick to the model fcst and persist in not altering at all a fcst when the model is already wrong in its short-term verification.  That's not good.  Objectivity, the HAFS-B is quite wrong here for satellite presentation.

Now I know that does not mean RI is off the table, but one just can't ignore the model shortcomings here and still stay the course on an earlier fcst.

And NHC mentioned nothing about the ESE shear I pointed out earlier that was apparent on satellite, or the low environmental RH that persists, or how earlier more banded convection is now becoming more irregular (blobs).  These are non-trivial observations as to what is going on real-time.

Actual empirical observations override any model fcst every time. 
 

[vortex95]

34 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

^ I concur. There were some fallacies pertaining to the current particular situation with Edouard versus just some rather highly detailed overexplaining of the prototypical pre-intensification process we see in early onset TCs with respect to shallow convection. At any rate, I wouldn't go so far as to say it was AI regurgitation. But I did scratch my head as I don't see how some of that applies here. We may very well see deep convection take off due to internal dynamics nearto Eduardo's small vortex this morning (and there are hints that may be starting to occur on radar and satellite), but I digress.

So much what was said in that post could have easily been condensed down to !~25% of its original and still said the same thing! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Radar looks like a system about to explode, that is a very tight circulation with more uniform banding around it. As I said yesterday we will be posting that it’s lucky this doesn’t have more time over water. I’m still thinking 50 kt landfall, it would take a serious convective burst ASAP to approach hurricane status, not sure it’s gonna happen. Cool system 

[vortex95]

It does look better, but sat and radar show it filling in primarily in its outer bands, the inner core is not solid rain w/ dry slots present, and the center ring is not closed off.  The blob nature of the developing convection is not a sign of imminent RI IMHO.

88D winds from LCH 4-5k ft show winds no higher than 50 mph, so even though I bet the pressure is now 998-1000 mb, the winds have not responded much yet.
 

[NorthHillsWx]

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall 

[hawkeye_wx]

It's a pretty disheveled-looking core on satellite and radar this morning.  It just doesn't have time to do much.

[NorthHillsWx]

First pass of recon shows no notable pressure drop or uptick in winds 

[weatherwiz]

34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall 

I was a bit shocked when I saw that this morning and wording of "significant strengthening expected" prior to landfall. Certainly we've seen this develop a nice looking circulation but there's been little evidence of any potential for significant strengthening. Even latest recon passes aren't finding much. Satellite presentation and evolution doesn't really scream that either. You never know with these Gulf systems though...who knows, we probably get hurricane winds that extend 3 miles from the center