July Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS for July.  Warm and Wet!  Hope it's correct.

[Weather Will]

Mod; please pin.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM through weekend.  Most of this falls late Saturday/ Sunday.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS and Canadian precip. through Day 5

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS is forecasting some storms on the 4th.

[frd]

 

WPC ramping up the totals 

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM has thunderstorms by midnight on the 4th in DC.

[frd]

49 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM has thunderstorms by midnight on the 4th in DC.

 

Mount Holly has increased the rainfall probabilities for Saturday eve/night.  

 

SPC has highlighted much of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2
out of 5) for severe thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. As
indicated by the PoP forecast above, coverage of storms is
anticipated to be relatively low on Friday, mainly isolated to
scattered in nature at best. Coverage and organization of storms
should be a bit greater on Saturday though. Damaging winds will
be the main threat with any thunderstorm development. On
Sunday, the severe weather threat may begin to become confined
mainly to Delmarva where destabilization is greatest ahead of an
approaching cold front. With that being said, the entire area
could see showers and a few storms. SPC has highlighted this
area with a day 4 15% severe risk.

 

 

[frd]

 

Pretty sad that areas in lower Delaware which are so dry miss out on the heaviest rainfall potential according to this WPC forecast map. 

 

 

[frd]

 

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanWeather

·

18h

 

 

Watching with some concern about the "mother of all heat domes" across the Western U.S. in 10-12 days ... triggered by Super Typhoon Bavi. This would be unprecedented ridge strength at 6045 meters (500 mb height) Nobody has seen this before

 

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanWeather

·

3h

 

 

"Mega Typhoon Bavi" Super Typhoon Bavi has an opportunity in the coming 4-5 days to set the "world record" for the most intense tropical cyclone observed, since Tip in 1979. ECMWF HRES (00z) at 872 mb --> upper echelon of Earth's maximum potential intensity.

[frd]

693
FXUS61 KPHI 031900
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence has increased in potential flash flooding impacts
across portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, the
forecast remains in track.

Concern has grown this afternoon that a threat for flash
flooding could evolve Sunday into Monday, given a slow moving or
stationary frontal boundary draped across the area, and tall,
skinny CAPE profiles with deep moisture. In fact, model guidance
is indicating PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches, which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year and near the
daily observed maximum. Given these factors, rainfall rates in
storms could exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour. As of now, the WPC
has placed a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for the I-95 corridor and
points west both Sunday and Monday, with a Marginal Risk (1 of
4) for the remainder of the area.

The front is expected to finally clear the area Tuesday, with
high pressure at least briefly building back into the region.
However, daily chances for isolated, primarily diurnally driven
convection, could continue through the middle of next week.