Weather Will Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 WB latest EPS for July. Warm and Wet! Hope it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Mod; please pin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 WB 12Z NBM through weekend. Most of this falls late Saturday/ Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 WB 12Z GFS and Canadian precip. through Day 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 WB 12Z RRFS is forecasting some storms on the 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 WPC ramping up the totals 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 WB 18Z 3K NAM has thunderstorms by midnight on the 4th in DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 49 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM has thunderstorms by midnight on the 4th in DC. Mount Holly has increased the rainfall probabilities for Saturday eve/night. SPC has highlighted much of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. As indicated by the PoP forecast above, coverage of storms is anticipated to be relatively low on Friday, mainly isolated to scattered in nature at best. Coverage and organization of storms should be a bit greater on Saturday though. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any thunderstorm development. On Sunday, the severe weather threat may begin to become confined mainly to Delmarva where destabilization is greatest ahead of an approaching cold front. With that being said, the entire area could see showers and a few storms. SPC has highlighted this area with a day 4 15% severe risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Pretty sad that areas in lower Delaware which are so dry miss out on the heaviest rainfall potential according to this WPC forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Ryan Maue @RyanWeather · 18h Watching with some concern about the "mother of all heat domes" across the Western U.S. in 10-12 days ... triggered by Super Typhoon Bavi. This would be unprecedented ridge strength at 6045 meters (500 mb height) Nobody has seen this before Ryan Maue @RyanWeather · 3h "Mega Typhoon Bavi" Super Typhoon Bavi has an opportunity in the coming 4-5 days to set the "world record" for the most intense tropical cyclone observed, since Tip in 1979. ECMWF HRES (00z) at 872 mb --> upper echelon of Earth's maximum potential intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 693 FXUS61 KPHI 031900 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased in potential flash flooding impacts across portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, the forecast remains in track. Concern has grown this afternoon that a threat for flash flooding could evolve Sunday into Monday, given a slow moving or stationary frontal boundary draped across the area, and tall, skinny CAPE profiles with deep moisture. In fact, model guidance is indicating PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year and near the daily observed maximum. Given these factors, rainfall rates in storms could exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour. As of now, the WPC has placed a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for the I-95 corridor and points west both Sunday and Monday, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for the remainder of the area. The front is expected to finally clear the area Tuesday, with high pressure at least briefly building back into the region. However, daily chances for isolated, primarily diurnally driven convection, could continue through the middle of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 I want the cold front the 12z GFS has at hour 384 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 folks are starting to chirp about a death ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Northern Hemisphere pattern continues to disconnect from ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: folks are starting to chirp about a death ridge out west. extreme https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/2073150197807329431 World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc These extreme deterministic solutions are eye-catching. For reference, the ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023). As of today's 12Z runs, the following percentage of members exceed this: WeatherNext2 23% AIFS-ENS 12% IFS-ENS 12% GEFS 19% 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 WB 12Z GFS, Can., and EURO ensemble precipitation through Day 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 4 Author Share Posted July 4 WB 6Z NBM Day 3 precip. Totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z NBM Day 3 precip. Totals. Honestly that could be a decent snowfall map, as the areas further East and SE get screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 2 hours ago, frd said: Honestly that could be a decent snowfall map, as the areas further East and SE get screwed. Payback for February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 6 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Payback for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 6 Author Share Posted July 6 WB 0Z EPS is wet next two weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Columbia imby: 1.41” for Sunday into early Monday morning. July total thru early today 1.61”. - compared to total for all June ‘26: 1.87” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Euro has another nasty heatwave for next week. Here's Friday, July 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Just now, BlizzardNole said: Euro has another nasty heatwave for next week. Here's Friday, July 17 yeah it looks like the western death ridge might become a CONUS death ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: yeah it looks like the western death ridge might become a CONUS death ridge. But, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 13 minutes ago, frd said: But, GEFS and GEPS keep the ridge out west and have average to even slightly below avg temps. EPS expands/shifts it towards the central US, but temps in the east look pretty typical for mid July. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GEFS and GEPS keep the ridge out west and have average to even slightly below avg temps. EPS expands/shifts it towards the central US, but temps in the east look pretty typical for mid July. True, and should not be dessert dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 3 hours ago, frd said: True, and should not be dessert dry. Ugh, I hate a dry dessert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 14 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: Ugh, I hate a dry dessert. Nothing worse. Going to need a flan to counter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now