Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[tamarack]

52 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

This coming Monday marks 30 years since MWN's windiest met summer day - the 24-hour average was 99 mph, IIRC.  Friends were getting married at our (then) church in South Gardiner, with an outdoor reception under a large tent, and the wind would work the 4-foot "pins" upward such that we had to monitor them while carrying sledge hammers.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

[Cyclone-68]

Since eastern Canada seems to regularly get plenty of convection, wouldn’t the smoke act as a deterrent there as well?

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Since eastern Canada seems to regularly get plenty of convection, wouldn’t the smoke act as a deterrent there as well?

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). 

In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. 

So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty clearly a circulation formulating west of Sarasota

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

Certainly may be a brief window for something to become a bit organized before shear increases some

[Cyclone-68]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). 

In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. 

So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development. 

This actually helps a lay person like myself understand this. Thank you!

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

38° at SLK

28 @ the fake hollow in CT (probably)