Weather Will Posted Saturday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:10 PM WB 12Z GFS, EURO, Can. And NBM (15Z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 09:29 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 09:29 AM WB 6Z 3K NAM and RRFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 11:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:04 AM 00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted yesterday at 11:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:14 AM 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it. NAM is also way better this morning. Shifted the heavy rain that was over pa down into our area. Level 2 for excessive rainfall as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:53 AM 38 minutes ago, dailylurker said: NAM is also way better this morning. Shifted the heavy rain that was over pa down into our area. Level 2 for excessive rainfall as well. 0z looked great. 6z much less so. It’s bouncing around. Maybe we can end on a good bounce for once since Memorial Day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago WPC increased overall precip 7 day totals ( most of that is early week ) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago WB 12Z models as they come in: 3K NAM; RRFS (which did well last time); RDPS; GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 0z looked great. 6z much less so. It’s bouncing around. Maybe we can end on a good bounce for once since Memorial Day. Just keep it dry until 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just keep it dry until 2 pm. WB 3K NAM at 2 pm Monday. Another round about 10pm. WB 12Z RRFS is similar but an hour or two slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 18z NAM looks like shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z NAM looks like shit. Why can't it just rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUnit Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall and seems to indicate some areas could see 2+ inches of rain. "Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate a large zone of 30-50% probs for >2" across the aforementioned area above with deterministic outputs closer to 2-3.5" into parts of Southern New England. The 00z HREF (only covers through 00Z 6/23) and 00Z REFS indicate 30-60% neighborhood probabilities for at least 2" per 6-hrs from D.C. to NYC and would be enough for some urban flash flooding concerns." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago WB 18Z RRFS-Sold! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago Really curious which short range model the Mets use...and is the NAM still being retired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Why can't it just rain lol It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think. Can you pin this thread through Tuesday? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 0z hrrr would be acceptable for most in the metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z hrrr would be acceptable for most in the metro areas 3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Doesn't seem like a real favorable environment for tornadoes tomorrow. Recent HRRR and 00z NAM trying for more low end straight line risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 55 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear The more backed surface winds and therefore better low-level shear do indeed appear to be more likely to our northeast, but the forecast hodographs for the local area on some guidance do suggest a non-zero tornado threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think. This developing Nino is gonna soak the heck out of the DMV. You guys are gonna get so damned much rain, you are gonnabe SICK of it. Every last weather system coming off the Pac is gonna demolish your region particularly with rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain after rain. I fervently hope Texas gets drowned this summer/fall/winter. I want to see Rt 1626 under lots of muddy waters, with big cedars strewn everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM 3K looks pretty interesting for fokes DC and east. There's even a flood watch for the Philly area. Only thing I don't like is the solid overcast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Not to be a deb, but this doesn't look as impressive on the severe side as it did a few days ago. Definitely a chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today, but the overall spatial coverage and helicity seem to have backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not to be a deb, but this doesn't look as impressive on the severe side as it did a few days ago. Definitely a chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today, but the overall spatial coverage and helicity seem to have backed off. Hopefully they become big ole, slow moving gully washers with lots of lightning. Severe around here is always really isolated. I feel like the majority of it comes from random down burst during summer thunderstorms. I remember widespread straight line winds once in my nearly 50 years here. Tornados are rare unless you live in La Plata. Evidently that town has been flattened more than once. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 52 minutes ago, dailylurker said: NAM 3K looks pretty interesting for fokes DC and east. There's even a flood watch for the Philly area. Only thing I don't like is the solid overcast this morning. Clearing out now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Hopefully they become big ole, slow moving gully washers with lots of lightning. Severe around here is always really isolated. I feel like the majority of it comes from random down burst during summer thunderstorms. I remember widespread straight line winds once in my nearly 50 years here. Tornados are rare unless you live in La Plata. Evidently that town has been flattened more than once. I would be down for that. Give me some good thunder for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Clearing out now Just noticed that. Pretty much clear now. LFG! Big gully washers for the win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not to be a deb, but this doesn't look as impressive on the severe side as it did a few days ago. Definitely a chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today, but the overall spatial coverage and helicity seem to have backed off. More of a heavy rain threat. Skies have cleared here for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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