Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS, EURO, Can. And NBM (15Z).

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 3K NAM and RRFS

[Eskimo Joe]

00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it.

[dailylurker]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it.

NAM is also way better this morning. Shifted the heavy rain that was over pa down into our area. Level 2 for excessive rainfall as well. 

[WxUSAF]

38 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

NAM is also way better this morning. Shifted the heavy rain that was over pa down into our area. Level 2 for excessive rainfall as well. 

0z looked great. 6z much less so. It’s bouncing around. Maybe we can end on a good bounce for once since Memorial Day.

[frd]

WPC increased overall precip 

 

 

7 day totals ( most of that is early week ) 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z models as they come in: 3K NAM; RRFS (which did well last time); RDPS; GFS

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

0z looked great. 6z much less so. It’s bouncing around. Maybe we can end on a good bounce for once since Memorial Day.

Just keep it dry until 2 pm.

[Weather Will]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just keep it dry until 2 pm.

WB 3K NAM at 2 pm Monday. Another round about 10pm. WB 12Z RRFS is similar but an hour or two slower.

[WxUSAF]

18z NAM looks like shit. 

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z NAM looks like shit. 

Why can't it just rain lol

[WxUnit]

WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall and seems to indicate some areas could see 2+ inches of rain. 

 

"Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate

a large zone of 30-50% probs for >2" across the aforementioned

area above with deterministic outputs closer to 2-3.5" into parts

of Southern New England. The 00z HREF (only covers through 00Z

6/23) and 00Z REFS indicate 30-60% neighborhood probabilities for

at least 2" per 6-hrs from D.C. to NYC and would be enough for

some urban flash flooding concerns."

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RRFS-Sold!

[Weather Will]

Really curious which short range model the Mets use...and is the NAM still being retired? 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Why can't it just rain lol

It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think.

[Weather Will]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s gonna take repeated punches from giga-Nino. And a few more months until those start I think.

Can you pin this thread through Tuesday?  Thanks!

[WxUSAF]

0z hrrr would be acceptable for most in the metro areas 

[SnowenOutThere]

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z hrrr would be acceptable for most in the metro areas 

3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear 

[Eskimo Joe]

Doesn't seem like a real favorable environment for tornadoes tomorrow. Recent HRRR and 00z NAM trying for more low end straight line risk.

[high risk]

55 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear 

       The more backed surface winds and therefore better low-level shear do indeed appear to be more likely to our northeast, but the forecast hodographs for the local area on some guidance do suggest a non-zero tornado threat.