Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Combine the euro cfs and cansips and we probably good lol

They all depict basically the same thing. Hard to parse details with these seasonal products and much of it is up for interpretation. On the new Euro Feb looks a bit more like the CFS at h5 with stronger +heights from Hudson Bay and extending eastward. Is that the result of Pac puke across Canada? Some might say its an impressive NAO block, but its a bit too far south and the height line contours are bending the wrong way. 

[Terpeast]

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that. 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest CFSV2 30 day multi run precip and temps maps for Dec-March.

 Will, thanks for posting.
 Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm).
 

 Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort:

examples for Feb:

1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010).

2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm

8/6-15:

8/16-25:

 

8/26-9/4:

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I could but not going to bother lol. I am sure he will post 10 maps. Its very similar to last month but yes each winter month is a bit milder than the last run for the MA and NE. Milder across the south too. Nothing remarkably different at h5. 

Trend this month is warmer....hope it's wrong.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that. 

yea i remember that---we were laughing at how we needed the pattern to go nina for us to score snow during that Nino. That season, canada was so blowtorched that we could never recover. but the models looked really good in the fall looking ahead to that winter. Thats the scary part

[GaWx]

 Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US 

’23:

 

‘26:

[WxUSAF]

If I knew we were actually going to only be +1C for DJF, I'd be pretty bullish for snow.  Perhaps even more so if you can wag that December makes up most of that + anomaly and JF are near normal or even a touch below.  But that's all weenie-casting right now.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Trend this month is warmer....hope it's wrong.

As depicted its a bit warmer, but it wasn't cold on last month's edition either. I think we have a pretty good idea of how this winter will go. Need a -AO and or EPO to bring some colder air close enough to work with for a time.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

Euro blew chunks with the 23/24 forecast thru the fall of 2023. Interestingly, Cfs2 forecast starting mid 9/23 was warm and not canonical Niño. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[GaWx]

H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US!

‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m

 

‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.

Dang it man...just dang it. I'm not sure we in the central MD/DC part of this forum are realizing what failure this winter means for the next 2-3 years...we'd better pull a miracle or the next big snow can't happen until 29/30 at the earliest. Super nino this year...nina next two years, smh That is not dooming: It is the reality of climo. We need to break the snow drought THIS year.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang it man...just dang it. I'm not sure we in the central MD/DC part of this forum are realizing what failure this winter means for the next 2-3 years...we'd better pull a miracle or the next big snow can't happen until 29/30 at the earliest. Super nino this year...nina next two years, smh That is not dooming: It is the reality of climo. We need to break the snow drought THIS year.

I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives

[Ji]

Leesburg snow chart is not too inspiring. In 23/24 it was in the low 20s so obviously it’s not gospel

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Leesburg snow chart is not too inspiring. In 23/24 it was in the low 20s so obviously it’s not gospel

The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.

[Ji]

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.

not sure if AI did this right but i tried to get it to cluster this into 3 categories. didnt have time to fact check

[WxUSAF]

20-24” is your average. You’re underselling your climo. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

not sure if AI did this right but i tried to get it to cluster this into 3 categories. didnt have time to fact check

So basically equal chances of boom, bust, or mid

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

not sure if AI did this right but i tried to get it to cluster this into 3 categories. didnt have time to fact check

It definitely didn't do it right. Take a note of the color code, several 12"+ winters appear in the 0-10 row. Likewise several 5 inch winters intruded into both the 10-20" and 20"+ sections, and the lack of any 30"+ totals in the "delicious" column shows that it's obviously erroneous

[Cobalt]

the AI envisions a winter where after an early season 2" snowfall we get a -2 inch event to bring the total back down. Same thing at the end of the season lmao

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

the AI envisions a winter where after an early season 2" snowfall we get a -2 inch event to bring the total back down. Same thing at the end of the season lmao

Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point

the boom/mid/bust split is 19/16/16

[Cobalt]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Nicely done fact checking Ji’s AI, good catch. But I don’t think it changes the odds of a boom or bust, which is basically a coin flip at this point

Definitely, though I do recall the Euro seasonal painting a similar picture for 23-24. That feels like the only strong nino in recent memory where we somehow split down the middle and got a "mediocre" season versus either an all-out torchfest or a big snower. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It definitely didn't do it right. Take a note of the color code, several 12"+ winters appear in the 0-10 row. Likewise several 5 inch winters intruded into both the 10-20" and 20"+ sections, and the lack of any 30"+ totals in the "delicious" column shows that it's obviously erroneous

it was a good idea on paper. Let me give the numbers to AI manually lol. i must be using the cheap ass model

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

20-24” is your average. You’re underselling your climo. 

ive had one 20-24 since 2016 so i think i have a new climo