Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Combine the euro cfs and cansips and we probably good lol

They all depict basically the same thing. Hard to parse details with these seasonal products and much of it is up for interpretation. On the new Euro Feb looks a bit more like the CFS at h5 with stronger +heights from Hudson Bay and extending eastward. Is that the result of Pac puke across Canada? Some might say its an impressive NAO block, but its a bit too far south and the height line contours are bending the wrong way. 

[Terpeast]

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that. 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest CFSV2 30 day multi run precip and temps maps for Dec-March.

 Will, thanks for posting.
 Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm).
 

 Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort:

examples for Feb:

1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010).

2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm

8/6-15:

8/16-25:

 

8/26-9/4:

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I could but not going to bother lol. I am sure he will post 10 maps. Its very similar to last month but yes each winter month is a bit milder than the last run for the MA and NE. Milder across the south too. Nothing remarkably different at h5. 

Trend this month is warmer....hope it's wrong.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that. 

yea i remember that---we were laughing at how we needed the pattern to go nina for us to score snow during that Nino. That season, canada was so blowtorched that we could never recover. but the models looked really good in the fall looking ahead to that winter. Thats the scary part