Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Eclipse is visible for some of us right now, at the moment, just got a pretty good look at it before it got filtered.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Open back up to a nice clear view of the eclipse. Tried to take some pictures, but they suck. 

[mahantango#1]

.35 rain from last night.

[Superstorm]

Conestoga under flood warning


.

[pawatch]

63 this morning and heavy fog.

Had another one of them small blips on the radar yesterday . Thunder & lightning and .23” of rain.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 64 with .12" of rain, as most of the action dodged me yesterday.  I'll need to get a mow in after work today.  Great weather for opening night of high school football.  Might be a campfire night.  Onward. 

[mahantango#1]

-- Changed Discussion --

1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --

IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can`t rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[ChescoWx]

A nice weekend ahead with increasing sun today and continued below normal temperatures through the weekend. We warm to above normal highs in the mid to upper 80's by Monday lasting through Wednesday we then fall back to a bit closer to normal by the end of next week. Next rain chances look to be toward Tuesday.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

[canderson]

34 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

CTP has no rain mention in my grid until next Tuesday night. 

[mahantango#1]

Another tornado confirmed today by NWS in Lancaster County on 8-20

NOUS41 KCTP 281746
PNSCTP
PAZ066-282200-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
146 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 08/20/26 Tornado Event - Update #2...

.Update...
Based on additional drone footage, NWS State College has extended
the length of the Columbia EF-1 tornado and added an additional
short EF-0 tornado (now 4 total) from the storms that moved
through southeast PA on August 20, 2026.

..Eastern York County Tornado...

Rating:                 EF2
Estimated Peak Wind:    120 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.07 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               1

Start Date:             08/20/2026
Start Time:             04:24 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 SSW Wrightsville / York County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          39.9994 / -76.5521

End Date:               08/20/2026
End Time:               04:26 PM EDT
End Location:           2 SSE Wrightsville / York County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            39.9975 / -76.5323

Survey Summary:
An EF-2 tornado impacted eastern York County during the afternoon
of August 20, 2026. Maximum wind speeds were estimated to be 120
mph and the tornado had a maximum path width of 100 yards. Damage
was first noted near the end of Vista Lane near Wrightsville where
approximately 5 trees were snapped. Sporadic tree damage was
noted along the tornado`s track as it continued towards
Picturesque Drive. The most significant damage occurred at Eastern
York High School where the roof was fully ripped off of multiple
classrooms. There was also significant damage to the school`s
auditorium, with the roof partially ripped off and bricks at the
top of the wall shifted from their original location. The tornado
continued eastward along Winding Way, where multiple homes
sustained damage to windows and siding. One injury was reported as
a result of a window being blown into a house. The tornado
knocked down crops in a field to the east of these houses, before
lifting prior to reaching Chateau Circle.

We would like to thank York County Emergency Management and local
homeowners for their assistance in this damage survey.


..Columbia Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    100 mph
Path Length /statute/:  3.01 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   100 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             08/20/2026
Start Time:             04:30 PM EDT
Start Location:         Columbia / Lancaster County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0343 / -76.5015

End Date:               08/20/2026
End Time:               04:33 PM EDT
End Location:           2 SE Columbia / Lancaster County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            40.0031 / -76.4620

Survey Summary:
On August 20, 2026 at approximately 4:30 p.m. EDT, an EF-1 tornado
impacted Columbia, PA. Maximum wind speeds were estimated at 100
mph with a maximum path width of 100 yards. The damage path began
on the block where Walnut Street meets 4th Street. Damage was done
to an old firehouse where a section of the second story brick wall
was knocked down onto Avenue H and a neighboring store. The
firehouse roof and another adjacent roof were torn off and lying
nearby. The tornado continued southeast through town where a
couple small outbuildings were collapsed near Avenue K. Damage
continued down Malt Avenue with many tree limbs snapped and minor
damage to roofs. The tornado then crossed the Columbia Reading
Railway snapping some large trees along Manor Street and Furnace
Avenue. It continued into the wooded area south of town and across
Blue Lane where many trees were found uprooted and snapped.
Additional damage was discovered with numerous trees snapped or
uprooted along the western side of Richland Drive. The tornado
then continued over the ridge to the south of Richland Drive
before crossing over Shultz Road. The tornado then turned left
(toward the southeast) and left a path of convergent damage in a
corn field north of Charlestown Rd. Sporadic damage was observed
downstream of the tornado path on a farm, but it was not
continuous enough to definitely extend the tornado path further.

We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management,
the Columbia Borough Police Department, and students from Millersville
University for their assistance in this damage survey.


.Habecker Rd Tornado...

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 65 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.3 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date:             08/20/2026
Start Time:             04:37 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 ESE Mountville / Lancaster County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0271 / -76.402

End Date:               08/20/2026
End Time:               04:37 PM EDT
End Location:           2 ESE Mountville / Lancaster County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            40.0235 / -76.3989

Survey Summary:
A brief EF-0 tornado occurred at 4:37PM EDT on August 20, 2026.
The tornado began northwest of Habecker Church Rd and carved out a
narrow convergent swath of damage in several cornfields as it
moved south-southeast. The tornado began to occlude as it crossed
Habecker Church Rd, after which the path briefly widened and
became a bit less defined. Interestingly, there may have been a
second even more narrow vortex that developed to the east of the
parent vortex (to the left from a storm-relative standpoint) and
joined up with the main circulation near Habecker Church Rd. The
tornado likely lifted as it cycled and subsequently produced more
damage to the northeast as it a crossed a residential area.

We would like to thank students from Millersville University for
their assistance in this damage survey.


..Manor Township Tornado...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    85 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.49 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   125 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             08/20/2026
Start Time:             04:38 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 E Mountville / Lancaster County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          40.0314 / -76.3877

End Date:               08/20/2026
End Time:               04:40 PM EDT
End Location:           2 NW Millersville / Lancaster County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            40.0312 / -76.3784

Survey Summary:
An EF-0 tornado developed over Broadstone Street causing significant
damage to trees and pulling gutters off of homes. The tornado
traveled east partially ripping a roof off of a townhouse as it
crossed Sutherland Road and uprooted additional trees in the
neighborhood. Finally it crossed South Centerville Road snapping
and uprooting numerous trees as it continued east before lifting
over a field.

We would like to thank Lancaster County Emergency Management and
students from Millersville University for their assistance in this
damage survey.


&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph
EF1.....86 to 110 mph
EF2.....111 to 135 mph
EF3.....136 to 165 mph
EF4.....166 to 200 mph
EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

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. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

7 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

-- Changed Discussion --

1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week

-- End Changed Discussion --

&& .DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --

IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can`t rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway.

-- End Changed Discussion --

I thought I'd add this to your post to take us to Wednesday.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

That one tornado near Mountville was RIGHT near my buddy’s house. 

[canderson]

Southern Lancaster County is the new tornado alley. And Mt Joy is the new Amazon rain forest. A diverse climate in one county!

[pawatch]

48 degrees this morning.

[Voyager]

51 here for the low.

[mahantango#1]

50 was the low here.

[mahantango#1]

33 minutes ago, Voyager said:

51 here for the low.

[mahantango#1]

 

Pennsylvania Weather Watchers

Bryant Sell · ·

 

 

Here is the 2026 Tornado list and map for Pennsylvania as of August 28th.

45 tornadoes this year is the 2nd most ever for any year! The only year with more is 1998 with 57.

More statistics:

22 in June = 2nd most for June or any month

15 in July = 2nd most for July

8 in August = 2nd most for August

37 for June + July = Record most for June + July

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

55 for my Marysville low.

Beautiful late Summer day is underway!

[mahantango#1]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

55 for my Marysville low.

Beautiful late Summer day is underway!

Theres still some heat and humidity to be had before we close the book on summer. Fall is getting close, and for some of us...it's too close.

[canderson]

Headed to DC for the day and dinner, thankful it’s not oppressive out. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Headed to DC for the day and dinner, thankful it’s not oppressive out. 

Had the kids at Long’s Park all morning. Absolutely beautiful out. 

[Superstorm]

Beautiful day in the Bronx.




.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios. ...Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained. Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Theres still some heat and humidity to be had before we close the book on summer. Fall is getting close, and for some of us...it's too close.

I'm not sure how many people here have read Genesis from the bible, but there's actually some scripture about fall.

Genesis 1:3

And the Lord said, let there be Fall ,and on the first day he realized that it really sucked.. So on the second day he said, let there be football, and the Lord saw that it was good.

I hate fall with a passion. I consider it the season of death , depression, shortening days and nasty a** pumpkin flavored food and drinks.  If it's not going be blistering hot with high humidity and afternoon thunderstorms, then it needs to be in the single digits with snow on the ground and the next storm already in focus.