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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread


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1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week

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&& .DISCUSSION...

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IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can`t rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway.

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A nice weekend ahead with increasing sun today and continued below normal temperatures through the weekend. We warm to above normal highs in the mid to upper 80's by Monday lasting through Wednesday we then fall back to a bit closer to normal by the end of next week. Next rain chances look to be toward Tuesday.

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34 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

CTP has no rain mention in my grid until next Tuesday night. 

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