Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Damn fellas! We got dumped on out here in western PA too but nothing like the severe back at home. Im hearing from friends in Cumberland County that are absolutely ravaged! That area seems to have been hit particularly hard. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Power company sent out a notification to everybody in our area that power may not be restored until  6pm Tuesday for some customers. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The only thing tree wise this compares to around here is Isabel and Sandy. The one guy a couple streets over with it Davis weather station that's placed pretty well recorded almost a 75 mile per hour wind gust before the power went out

Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk
 

Never have I had wind rock my ford around. I wish we could post videos here. I was actually getting pretty nervous while sitting at the mechanicsburg middle school. I'm going to sleep on it, but today's storme most likely makes it into my top five, and certainly the best I think i've experienced since 2011. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

My mistake 11:00 pm tuesday, for some of the residents out this way. That's probably mostly b*******, though.I'd imagine it's going to be  long before that for most people if not everyone. 

[Jns2183]

My mistake 11:00 pm tuesday, for some of the residents out this way. That's probably mostly b*******, though.I'd imagine it's going to be  long before that for most people if not everyone. 

They sent that out here as well it was basically a mass text everywhere. Got to think they're probably running on skeleton crews and they just had one of the single worst blowdowns and a decade

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

Worst part of all of this, tomorrow offers an opportunity for even more destructive winds affecting an even larger area. That's in addition to the flash flood potential tomorrow into Monday night.

[Yardstickgozinya]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

They sent that out here as well it was basically a mass text everywhere. Got to think they're probably running on skeleton crews and they just had one of the single worst blowdowns and a decade

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

No shortage of crews and people still out here clearing debris out of roads and off of homes. Fireworks and generators glore out here tonight. 

[Jns2183]

Powe has till 10 am tomorrow to come in at my restaurant or else we are filing a $50k insurance claim and I have a week from hell on the backend

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

No shortage of crews and people still out here clearing debris out of roads and off of homes. Fireworks and generators glore out here tonight. 

I'm still amazed it did that to a healthy tree

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

I had taken a break from any beer that last few months to get in shape. I opened one in hope it helps me sleep as I desperately miss my AC and fan noise. Way to quiet

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

This is from Maryland but that is legit how it looked here when it hit
https://x.com/i/status/2073589620823007409

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle...it appears that my immediate area, about 1 mile south of I-81 at the Hanover St. exit 47, were spared the severe aspects of the warned storm back around 6:30pm.  No hail.  I estimate max wind gusts of 35-45mph briefly as the downdraft came blowing through.  I only ended up with 0.11" of rain.

The thermometer broke the century mark for the 3rd day in a row, reaching 100.8 around 4:00pm.  Yesterday's high was 102.0 and Thursday's high was 101.6.  I'm almost positive this is the first time in my life that I have recorded 3 consecutive days of 100+ degree readings.  Another event here that I had never previously experienced before was back in January when for 4 consecutive nights my low temperature dropped to zero and below, the lowest being my all-time lowest recorded minimum temperature of -9.6 degrees F.  That was during the 3-week long cold wave we all experienced right after the snowstorm that dumped 7.5" here but widespread totals east of here.  Some stations saw 18" out towards Lancaster county and further east.  Thankfully, the end of this torrid heatwave has finally arrived with much needed rainfall coming and with temps only in the 70's the next several days and then 80's for the remainder of the 7-day forecast.

[Yardstickgozinya]

@Jns2183  1:43AM I'm driving through Camp Hill right now checking out  all the damage throughout your town. This is locally historic, without a doubt. There's at least 6 trees down on my property. I'm going to take a walk in the woods  tonight and assess. Heading out the Carlisle pike, next then driving back through Mechanicsburg, and checking out some of the areas where where I posted some of my first pictures from today. 

[Voyager]

I guess I should apologize for my rant last night. A lot of you had damage and I'm sure some are still without power this morning. That sucks.

I guess I just love good, solid storms, and for some reason Tamaqua is protected from getting them, so it's frustrating to miss out on so many highly anticipated storm outbreaks.

[mahantango#1]

Flood Watch

National Weather Service State College PA

317 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

 

PAZ019-026>028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-052315-

/O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0004.260705T1800Z-260707T0000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Southern

Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-

Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-

Lancaster-

Including the cities of Lock Haven, Chambersburg, Shamokin,

Sunbury, Harrisburg, Hershey, Mifflintown, Huntingdon,

Bloomsburg, Pottsville, Carlisle, York, Lancaster, Berwick, Mount

Union, Williamsport, State College, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,

Lewistown, Lebanon, Danville, Newport, and Gettysburg

317 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

 

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

 

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following

  areas, Adams, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Huntingdon,

  Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland,

  Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton,

  Southern Lycoming, Union and York.

 

* WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur

  in poor drainage and urban areas.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Multiple rounds of slow moving thunderstorms are expected

    with torrential downpours and intense rain rates over 2

    inches per hour possible. Localized rainfall totals could

    exceed 5 inches. While there remains some uncertainty to

    exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur, the setup

    favors some locally significant flash flooding.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action

should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

 

&&

 

$$

 

Steinbugl/Bauco

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

No morning update from the Spc yet but the national weather service seems pretty confident we are going to see more severe weather in  cpa today. 

Highlight Changed Discussion --

998
FXUS61 KCTP 050843
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
443 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Dense Fog Advisory issued early this morning for the western
  and central Alleghenies
* Targeted Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 3/4)
  for east-central Pennsylvania through tonight
* Flood Watch issued this afternoon through Monday for east-
  central Pennsylvania

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to severe storms
and torrential downpours today and Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and Monday

40 severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the past 2 days. The
days following a transition from an extreme heat pattern are
often marked by severe/active weather, and that trend continues
through at least Monday. As the heat dome shifts to the west and
troughing develops over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, the
upcoming week will feature relatively cooler (more seasonal)
temperatures with a bullish signal for almost daily rain chances
particularly early and late in the week.

In the very near term, clearing sky and nearly calm wind
following last evenings widespread rainfall has resulted in
areas of dense fog over the western and central Alleghenies. IR
sat shows the fog expanding as higher clouds peel away. We
issued a DFA through 13Z/9AM with several ASOS and RWIS sites
already reporting 1/4 mile visibility.

Another active wx day ahead with dual severe T-storm and flash
flood risks to manage. We anticipate another diurnal uptick in
convective development within a very warm, moist and increasingly
unstable environment indicative of steep low-mid level lapse
rates. Pockets of stronger deep layer shear 30+ kt may exist in
the upper OH Valley and eastern PA, but the general expectation
is for pulse to multicell storms to once again merge/form into
line segments with some cold pool organization to promote
damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into the evening. SPC
placed the highest damaging wind probs near/southeast of I81/78
where max temps should reach 90F.

Focus will should evolve from severe to flash flood/hydro ops
by later this evening and continue into Monday as a robust +RA
signal continues to manifest over east-central PA. Atmos
conditions will be quite favorable for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding potential with 2+ inch pwats correlating to intense
rain rates >2 in/hr and repeating/back-building storms along
q-stnry/wavy frontal zone. Latest HREF/REFS mean QPF guidance
is signaling 1-3" in the 24hr period ending 00Z Tue with
PMM/LPMM max values exceeding 5 inches. WPC coordinated a
targeted and relatively small moderate excessive rainfall
outlook (level 3/4) within a broader level 2/4 or SLGT risk
area. We issued a relatively large/broad flood watch along with
WFO PHI as there remains some spatial uncertainty to exactly
where the greatest rainfall will occur. The setup (multiple
rounds of slow moving/torrential downpours) favors locally
significant flash flooding particularly in terrain areas and
highly urbanized corridors. One limiting factor is obviously the
drought conditions and corresponding elevated FFG values that
may offset the overall risk to some extent

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Jns2183]

No morning update from the Spc yet but the national weather service seems pretty confident we are going to see more severe weather in  cpa today. 
Highlight Changed Discussion --

998FXUS61 KCTP 050843AFDCTPArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service State College PA443 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026.WHAT HAS CHANGED...* Dense Fog Advisory issued early this morning for the western and central Alleghenies* Targeted Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 3/4) for east-central Pennsylvania through tonight* Flood Watch issued this afternoon through Monday for east- central Pennsylvania&&.KEY MESSAGES...1) Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to severe stormsand torrential downpours today and Monday&&.DISCUSSION...KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise tosevere storms and torrential downpours today and Monday40 severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the past 2 days. Thedays following a transition from an extreme heat pattern areoften marked by severe/active weather, and that trend continuesthrough at least Monday. As the heat dome shifts to the west andtroughing develops over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, theupcoming week will feature relatively cooler (more seasonal)temperatures with a bullish signal for almost daily rain chancesparticularly early and late in the week.In the very near term, clearing sky and nearly calm windfollowing last evenings widespread rainfall has resulted inareas of dense fog over the western and central Alleghenies. IRsat shows the fog expanding as higher clouds peel away. Weissued a DFA through 13Z/9AM with several ASOS and RWIS sitesalready reporting 1/4 mile visibility.Another active wx day ahead with dual severe T-storm and flashflood risks to manage. We anticipate another diurnal uptick inconvective development within a very warm, moist and increasinglyunstable environment indicative of steep low-mid level lapserates. Pockets of stronger deep layer shear 30+ kt may exist inthe upper OH Valley and eastern PA, but the general expectationis for pulse to multicell storms to once again merge/form intoline segments with some cold pool organization to promotedamaging wind potential from mid afternoon into the evening. SPCplaced the highest damaging wind probs near/southeast of I81/78where max temps should reach 90F.Focus will should evolve from severe to flash flood/hydro opsby later this evening and continue into Monday as a robust +RAsignal continues to manifest over east-central PA. Atmosconditions will be quite favorable for heavy rainfall and flashflooding potential with 2+ inch pwats correlating to intenserain rates >2 in/hr and repeating/back-building storms alongq-stnry/wavy frontal zone. Latest HREF/REFS mean QPF guidanceis signaling 1-3" in the 24hr period ending 00Z Tue withPMM/LPMM max values exceeding 5 inches. WPC coordinated atargeted and relatively small moderate excessive rainfalloutlook (level 3/4) within a broader level 2/4 or SLGT riskarea. We issued a relatively large/broad flood watch along withWFO PHI as there remains some spatial uncertainty to exactlywhere the greatest rainfall will occur. The setup (multiplerounds of slow moving/torrential downpours) favors locallysignificant flash flooding particularly in terrain areas andhighly urbanized corridors. One limiting factor is obviously thedrought conditions and corresponding elevated FFG values thatmay offset the overall risk to some extent

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

They managed to put road blocks by the downed trees, haha. The people without power barely moved all night, so I suspect this may be a long long duration event. It sucks I can't even get ice to save my food

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

PPl customers without power. 

Customers currently without power: 125,284

Last Updated: Jul 05 07:30 AM

[mahantango#1]

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

They managed to put road blocks by the downed trees, haha. The people without power barely moved all night, so I suspect this may be a long long duration event. It sucks I can't even get ice to save my food

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

The one thing I noticed every place had in common along my drives last night, and this morning was the smell of freshly cut timber. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised about how widespread and damaging ithis wind event actually was as pictures  and stories roll in. Some of the hardest hit places along my drives were the Heritage golf course in Lisburn, neighborhoods surrounding the I81 and Carlisle pike Interchange, areas around Cedar, Cliff high school, including the Cliffs, and the north end of Greenlane farms. My son also sent me pictures from front street in Harrisburg and I can also confirm that that area seems particularly hard hit. Unfortunately, driving last night required extra attention so I got very few pictures and videos ,but seeing the damage fresh leves, no doubt in my mind that this was the worst windstorm in my hometown and many surrounding areas in my lifetime. The picture below is what it looks like outside my sliding door and looking directly back at it from my woods. I lost four large connifer trees just in that view. I also lost 2 large poplar trees and small dogwood and had several deadfalls.