Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's 88 with dewpoint of 71

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Yeah it’s absolutely miserable. The last two years we have had a hotter summer peak than Austin. Completely normal. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Happy Independence to those who acknowledge the United States is the greatest country in the world ,and all those who serve and have served America. Stay safe out there, especially, you extreme southeastern folk.  

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
   into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind.
   Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains
   Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind
   gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal
   flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the
   Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around
   30-40 kts will move through the trough in the
   Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced
   westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains.

   ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
   Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA
   into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to
   lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with
   northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime
   heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the
   90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in
   place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating,
   low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to
   strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will
   be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless,
   several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the
   Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward
   though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce
   widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale
   and develop strong cold pools.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

NWS verbatim SPC on today's severe potential. 

 

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

237
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
516 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Extreme Heat Warning upgrade for Fulton, Franklin, Perry, and
  Cumberland Counties

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Breakdown of early July heat wave promotes an increased risk
of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and potential flash
flooding through Independence Day weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of early July heat wave promotes an
increased risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and potential
flash flooding through Independence Day weekend

Final day of heat headlines with max heat indices reaching
100-110 degrees to the east of the Allegheny Plateau.
The breakdown or ending process of heat waves is often marked
by bouts of severe weather - and that will likely hold true
through the July 4th holiday weekend.

Clusters of storms are projected to develop through the weekend
in a very moist, unstable, modestly sheared environment and
will have the potential to produce localized to perhaps
widespread damaging wind gusts - especially of they can grow
upscale and sustain strong cold pools. A threat for heavy to
excessive rainfall will also be in play given high pwats and
efficient rainfall/hourly rates.

SPC and WPC outlooks were largely unchanged for this cycle.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Yardstickgozinya]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

An east-west orientated front boundary will be sprawled across the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic region during this period. Moderate
instability combined with PW values of 2+ inches are expected to
overlap near the frontal boundary to produce periods of heavy
rainfall. This area historically is more prone to flash flooding
due to terrain influences and more sensitive hydrologic schemes
thus maintaining the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this
part of the region. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms may
be possible. Scattered flash flood concerns exist over the central
Mid- Atlantic with an increasing risk of heavy convection over
portions of Pennsylvania down through the Washington DC-
Baltimore- Philadelphia corridor. A broad Marginal Risk area spans
from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Mid- Atlantic/southern
portions of the Northeast.

[mahantango#1]

[pawatch]

Crazy weather….As Joe said we set/tied another record. That’s 2 days in a row we hit 100 and entered the record book.

We had a pop up thunderstorm about 2:00 pm with loud thunder and picked up 01” as soon as the rain hit the pavement it dried right up.

Last night I thought the radar was looking good but must have dried up.

Looked like State College got a storm,anybody know how much rain they ended up getting?

The skies reminded me of my childhood. Look up at the sky and there would be what we would call heat lightening and it was constant. Not sure what the term is?
But it was a pretty nice fireworks show!
Happy 4 th of July to everyone!
 

[Voyager]

25 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Crazy weather….As Joe said we set/tied another record. That’s 2 days in a row we hit 100 and entered the record book.

We had a pop up thunderstorm about 2:00 pm with loud thunder and picked up 01” as soon as the rain hit the pavement it dried right up.

Last night I thought the radar was looking good but must have dried up.

Looked like State College got a storm,anybody know how much rain they ended up getting?

The skies reminded me of my childhood. Look up at the sky and there would be what we would call heat lightening and it was constant. Not sure what the term is?
But it was a pretty nice fireworks show!
Happy 4 th of July to everyone!
 

Storms blew up east of I-81 yesterday late afternoon/evening and caused quite a bit of damage in various locations as I posted about last night. 

31,000 people are still without power this morning.

[Jns2183]

I know it would mostly go to runoff but a 3" rainfall would be just I need psychologically

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[canderson]

89 at 10:30 am but in feels so much better ahh yesterday at this time. 
 

My low was 79. 

[ChescoWx]

20 hours ago, Voyager said:

It's why I have the guy on ignore. Him posting his climate stats and obs here, would be the equivalent of me doing it in the Mid Atlantic forum.

Now I do post from time to time in the Philly thread, but I'm five miles from Carbon and 8 miles from Lehigh, so sometimes I cross over. Plus...I was born and raised in Bethlehem, so I feel a kindred spirit with those guys down there.

Too many folks don't know what a great tool that is to get past the junk we don't care about - glad you can mute me Voyager!! That said I am only 7 miles from Lancaster County so like you I cross over....

[ChescoWx]

Happy Independence Day to all!!! Well while today will still be sweltering it will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Real relief arrives tomorrow as temperatures fall back to near normal levels for early July with highs in the mid-80's. We will see temperatures fall to below average by Monday and continue through the middle of the week. Shower chances start to increase this evening, but I think the best chances for rain will be after fireworks. Rain chances really increase Sunday night into Monday morning. Some spots could see between 1 to 2 inches of much needed rain.

[ChescoWx]

18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Chester County borders Lancaster, which is included in our "poster coverage area." It's also closer to central PA than where a few others in our sub are from. (And they are welcome here as well)

I don't understand why people get so upset over location. It's a weather forum. Interestingly, everything that Paul posts is 100% weather content. No reason at all why that shouldn't be welcome here. 

If this is the culture we're trying to create here, I seriously need to just post in the sports threads. This thread is becoming increasingly insufferable.

 

Thank you so much!!! I appreciate all the folks that post in this forum and others!! 

[canderson]

96 at noon. KMdT is at 95. 

[ChescoWx]

Happy 4th of July to all of you! Below is the history of July 4th weather since 1893 here in Chester County PA. Overall we have seen a flat trend in average temperature / a slight cooling trend for high temperatures and a slight warming trend for overnight low temperatures for the holiday. The hottest July 4th was back in 1966 the chilliest was in 1978.

[Itstrainingtime]

96 at 1pm.

[Voyager]

The last two days we hit 90 before 10am. Today at 1pm were only at 89.

I wonder how much last night's storm is playing into the slightly cooler temp today.

[anotherman]