Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's 88 with dewpoint of 71

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah it’s absolutely miserable. The last two years we have had a hotter summer peak than Austin. Completely normal. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Happy Independence to those who acknowledge the United States is the greatest country in the world ,and all those who serve and have served America. Stay safe out there, especially, you extreme southeastern folk.  

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
   into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind.
   Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains
   Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind
   gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal
   flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the
   Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around
   30-40 kts will move through the trough in the
   Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced
   westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains.

   ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
   Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA
   into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to
   lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with
   northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime
   heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the
   90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in
   place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating,
   low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to
   strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will
   be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless,
   several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the
   Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward
   though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce
   widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale
   and develop strong cold pools.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

NWS verbatim SPC on today's severe potential. 

 

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

237
FXUS61 KCTP 040916
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
516 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Extreme Heat Warning upgrade for Fulton, Franklin, Perry, and
  Cumberland Counties

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Breakdown of early July heat wave promotes an increased risk
of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and potential flash
flooding through Independence Day weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of early July heat wave promotes an
increased risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and potential
flash flooding through Independence Day weekend

Final day of heat headlines with max heat indices reaching
100-110 degrees to the east of the Allegheny Plateau.
The breakdown or ending process of heat waves is often marked
by bouts of severe weather - and that will likely hold true
through the July 4th holiday weekend.

Clusters of storms are projected to develop through the weekend
in a very moist, unstable, modestly sheared environment and
will have the potential to produce localized to perhaps
widespread damaging wind gusts - especially of they can grow
upscale and sustain strong cold pools. A threat for heavy to
excessive rainfall will also be in play given high pwats and
efficient rainfall/hourly rates.

SPC and WPC outlooks were largely unchanged for this cycle.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Yardstickgozinya]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

An east-west orientated front boundary will be sprawled across the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic region during this period. Moderate
instability combined with PW values of 2+ inches are expected to
overlap near the frontal boundary to produce periods of heavy
rainfall. This area historically is more prone to flash flooding
due to terrain influences and more sensitive hydrologic schemes
thus maintaining the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this
part of the region. Backbuilding and training of thunderstorms may
be possible. Scattered flash flood concerns exist over the central
Mid- Atlantic with an increasing risk of heavy convection over
portions of Pennsylvania down through the Washington DC-
Baltimore- Philadelphia corridor. A broad Marginal Risk area spans
from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Mid- Atlantic/southern
portions of the Northeast.

[mahantango#1]