Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[MarcmmKU]

On 10/7/2026 at 7:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Good catskills skiing??

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

On 10/8/2026 at 9:44 AM, CT Valley Snowman said:

I think going below average is fine, but I have too much respect for SNE climo, the CC related propensity for more extreme precip events including large snowfalls, and the 2nd half of winter "wildcard" pattern like 82-83 to just go complete ratter.  I'd probably honestly go 25-40" in Boston rather than 15-30" if one was using 15" increments.  

It’s really hard to project below normal snowfall south of the pike. If there was a year that would be a candidate, it would be this one. However, the entire winter could be a rat on balance, but all it takes is one storm.

Places around Fall River got an entire seasons worth of snow in one event last year. You just can’t predict that type of variance. It literally could only take one storm.

Id guess Boston points south can set the snooze button for most of the winter though. Background climate state screams a lot of elevated interior events, and more than likely deep elevated interior, like NNE.

Im not optimistic here, but we had 2 really good events last year, so it is what it is.

[stadiumwave]

JMA OCTOBER UPDATE

**I think I rotated map too much, so actually the bottom needs to swing a little to the right. I think you'll see it makes a difference. Sorry about that.

DJF

DEC

JAN

 

**For individual months Jan is as far out as one can go until next month's update. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

 

[alex]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s really hard to project below normal snowfall south of the pike. If there was a year that would be a candidate, it would be this one. However, the entire winter could be a rat on balance, but all it takes is one storm.

Places around Fall River got an entire seasons worth of snow in one event last year. You just can’t predict that type of variance. It literally could only take one storm.

Id guess Boston points south can set the snooze button for most of the winter though. Background climate state screams a lot of elevated interior events, and more than likely deep elevated interior, like NNE.

Im not optimistic here, but we had 2 really good events last year, so it is what it is.

I’ve seen several write ups talking about how elevation could make a difference this winter. Why is that? It seems to me that in the winter location (eg, which side of the storm you’re in) makes a lot more difference than elevation. Heck I’m usually warmer than the lower elevations in a cutter. 

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Coast is due for a big march. Every single march since 2020 has been a complete ratter. Total shutout on any sort of wintery activity.

[MarcmmKU]

10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s really hard to project below normal snowfall south of the pike. If there was a year that would be a candidate, it would be this one. However, the entire winter could be a rat on balance, but all it takes is one storm.

Places around Fall River got an entire seasons worth of snow in one event last year. You just can’t predict that type of variance. It literally could only take one storm.

Id guess Boston points south can set the snooze button for most of the winter though. Background climate state screams a lot of elevated interior events, and more than likely deep elevated interior, like NNE.

Im not optimistic here, but we had 2 really good events last year, so it is what it is.

When you say elevated interior are you thinking catskills and southern greens are included or do you really think it'll be a shutout for everyone south of Stowe and less than 2k ft asl. lol

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Coast is due for a big march. Every single march since 2020 has been a complete ratter. Total shutout on any sort of wintery activity.

A Dec to end of Feb would be a good run, once we hit March even a good storm starts to melt quick. Ideally I'd like a storm in the beginning of Dec and have a pack til the beginning of March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

When you say elevated interior are you thinking catskills and southern greens are included or do you really think it'll be a shutout for everyone south of Stowe and less than 2k ft asl. lol

Catskills should do well.

[CoastalWx]

January on the JMA is vomit worthy. 

[CoastalWx]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

The only way we see a change to snowier outcomes here is if the tropical forcing changes which may coincide with the shift west of Nino. Otherwise it’s warm all over and around the El Niño regions. Not sure how much it matters if it shifts west as long as the MJO shifts too.

[MarcmmKU]

11 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

A Dec to end of Feb would be a good run, once we hit March even a good storm starts to melt quick. Ideally I'd like a storm in the beginning of Dec and have a pack til the beginning of March.

Not happening in a super nino. Last winter was ideal for pack. Even the cities had a pack from january to end of feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

January on the JMA is vomit worthy. 

You are viewing a monthly mean, which is important considering any potential pattern change around that time...but I see some decent ridging out west.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Not happening in a super nino. Last winter was ideal for pack. Even the cities had a pack from january to end of feb.

Should I keep my speedos out just in case ?

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Should I keep my speedos out just in case ?

You should burn those regardless.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are viewing a monthly mean, which is important considering any potential pattern change around that time...but I see some decent ridging out west.

It’s a mean, but I see a massive GOA low and CONUS chinook.