Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[DirtySnowDen]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah it is going to be warmer, but far from the worst case scenario we were looking at a few months ago

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I agree, but can’t rule out a solid storm away from the coast. If you are on the coast south of Boston, I think you are porked for snowfall totals.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

How did it compare to the upcoming?...understanding it is tough to know what really happened in the 1800s....

 

I read a paper that Paul Roundy had shared in the last couple of years that discussed any known global impacts. Like you said, a lot if it has to be pieced together from written records from individuals in parts of the world in that time frame & then the rest from reanalysis. If I can find the paper I will share it. 

[stadiumwave]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I read a paper that Paul Roundy had shared in the last couple of years that discussed any known global impacts. Like you said, a lot if it has to be pieced together from written records from individuals in parts of the world in that time frame & then the rest from reanalysis. If I can find the paper I will share it. 

 

Here are a couple:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/23/jcli-d-18-0159.1.xml

 

 

 

 

[DirtySnowDen]

4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah it is going to be warmer, but far from the worst case scenario we were looking at a few months ago

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I’ve turned into the old man from “Up” last ten years. I used to hope for snow/oce, now I hope for rain. Sadly, anything ocean/oscillating is terrible when forecasting 7-10 days out. However, when it arrives”whether”  it’s pos or neg, kinda dictates the next few months. It is a planetary flow. I do not know what to expect, but being a borderline record El Niño this year means something……..Can I get callout on how super El Niños performed in the region? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

That El Nino was something! That potential has to at least be considered possible. 

This is totally anecdotal, but I really doubt it considering the stretch from which we are just emerging. I think we are on par for some positive regression in terms of snowfall...I understand the CC-oriented counter to that, and it's perfectly valid, so no need to get into that...ultimately all we can do is guess, and that is mine.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, EasternLI said:

1877-78 was known as the year without a winter. Interestingly a very powerful el nino event that year. 

We were really paid back 100 years later!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, DirtySnowDen said:

I agree, but can’t rule out a solid storm away from the coast. If you are on the coast south of Boston, I think you are porked for snowfall totals.

I wouldn't say that given major El Nino climo....I think lower in latitude has the best shot at above climo snowfall.

[dendrite]

17 hours ago, EasternLI said:

1877-78 was known as the year without a winter. Interestingly a very powerful el nino event that year. 

CON’s 2nd coldest temp on record was in Jan 1878. 50” of snow on the season which is BN but not a ratter in the period of record. But that was in the middle of a stretch of very snowy winters. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is totally anecdotal, but I really doubt it considering the stretch from which we are just emerging. I think we are on par for some positive regression in terms of snowfall...I understand the CC-oriented counter to that, and it's perfectly valid, so no need to get into that...ultimately all we can do is guess, and that is mine.

 

Oh, I don't really think that will occur but was just saying its a possibility. I lean toward a better than average winter compared to some of the other Super El Nino's. 

[stadiumwave]

NMME Update

DEC

JAN

FEB

MARCH

[40/70 Benchmark]

October Euro seasonal gives me 46.3" of snowfall from November-April...same, exact total as 1997-1998.

[Prismshine Productions]

October Euro seasonal gives me 46.3" of snowfall from November-April...same, exact total as 1997-1998.

Got it for the rest of NE?

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[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

CON’s 2nd coldest temp on record was in Jan 1878. 50” of snow on the season which is BN but not a ratter in the period of record. But that was in the middle of a stretch of very snowy winters. 

The core of the most impressive anomalies in 1877-78 were in the far upper midwest and into Canada. It was and still is known as Minnesota's infamous "year without a winter". The temp departures, even against the current milder averages, are astounding, especially in northern Minnesota. Further east, it was a torch December here but only run-of-the-mill mild Jan/Feb, with quite a snowy stretch from late Jan to mid Feb. Detroit finished with 43.4", right around avg for snowfall, but snowfall was heavily confined to Jan-Feb, with only 1.0" in Nov, 1.9" Dec, T Mar and 0 Apr. It was certainly a mild winter in the east, but nothing like Minnesota. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The core of the most impressive anomalies in 1877-78 were in the far upper midwest and into Canada. It was and still is known as Minnesota's infamous "year without a winter". The temp departures, even against the current milder averages, are astounding, especially in northern Minnesota. Further east, it was a torch December here but only run-of-the-mill mild Jan/Feb, with quite a snowy stretch from late Jan to mid Feb. Detroit finished with 43.4", right around avg for snowfall, but snowfall was heavily confined to Jan-Feb, with only 1.0" in Nov, 1.9" Dec, T Mar and 0 Apr. It was certainly a mild winter in the east, but nothing like Minnesota. 

As strong as that Nino may have been, one would assume that the implied RONI was off the charts compared to the upcoming winter.

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The core of the most impressive anomalies in 1877-78 were in the far upper midwest and into Canada. It was and still is known as Minnesota's infamous "year without a winter". The temp departures, even against the current milder averages, are astounding, especially in northern Minnesota. Further east, it was a torch December here but only run-of-the-mill mild Jan/Feb, with quite a snowy stretch from late Jan to mid Feb. Detroit finished with 43.4", right around avg for snowfall, but snowfall was heavily confined to Jan-Feb, with only 1.0" in Nov, 1.9" Dec, T Mar and 0 Apr. It was certainly a mild winter in the east, but nothing like Minnesota. 

Sure…not saying it was cold overall. Just that there were still periods of record cold east of the Rockies and within a Std Dev of snowfall. Summer 1816 had some 90s up here too. But yeah, there weren’t many cold shots in the upper plains and midwest that winter. Blowtorch.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sure…not saying it was cold overall. Just that there were still periods of record cold east of the Rockies and within a Std Dev of snowfall. Summer 1816 had some 90s up here too. But yeah, there weren’t many cold shots in the upper plains and midwest that winter. Blowtorch.

Oh for sure. This is something a shocking number of people cant seem to grasp- that a mild seasonal mean doesnt mean no cold blasts or below avg days, it just means fewer. 

[MarcmmKU]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The core of the most impressive anomalies in 1877-78 were in the far upper midwest and into Canada. It was and still is known as Minnesota's infamous "year without a winter". The temp departures, even against the current milder averages, are astounding, especially in northern Minnesota. Further east, it was a torch December here but only run-of-the-mill mild Jan/Feb, with quite a snowy stretch from late Jan to mid Feb. Detroit finished with 43.4", right around avg for snowfall, but snowfall was heavily confined to Jan-Feb, with only 1.0" in Nov, 1.9" Dec, T Mar and 0 Apr. It was certainly a mild winter in the east, but nothing like Minnesota. 

Uber niños have a better chance of being torch in the upper midwest I feel. But MN is so cold that a torch looks like highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the 10s rather than the usual sub zero lows and highs in the teens. Still cold. 

[mitchnick]

17 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Got it for the rest of NE?

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This isn't the total snowfall map, but it is the change in snowfall in the October Euro seasonal vs September's run.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh...that region in the NE US looks like the (superstorm 1993 + climate change)/2

[Prismshine Productions]

This isn't the total snowfall map, but it is the change in snowfall in the October Euro seasonal vs September's run.

Doing a bit of math here... Last month was at -5.5", converting that new map to inches and adding...

Well, shit, -1.5"

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[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Uber niños have a better chance of being torch in the upper midwest I feel. But MN is so cold that a torch looks like highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the 10s rather than the usual sub zero lows and highs in the teens. Still cold. 

This is another excellent point. I sometimes think some get too wrapped up in the reds and blues of a temp anomaly map. Dark red in Winnipeg and blue in Atlanta? Means it's only going to be 30F colder in Winnipeg than Atlanta instead of the normal 40F colder lol. 

[Layman]

Saw this fun little graphic at Accuweather. 15”-30” for Boston?

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is another excellent point. I sometimes think some get too wrapped up in the reds and blues of a temp anomaly map. Dark red in Winnipeg and blue in Atlanta? Means it's only going to be 30F colder in Winnipeg than Atlanta instead of the normal 40F colder lol. 

I mean it’s all relative. It could be +10F for winter here and it’d still be too cold for me.

1877-1878 in DLH

Dec +15.6F
Jan +9.3F
Feb +15.6F (yes same dep as Dec)
Mar +11.8F

Roughly +13F for DJFM is pretty wild

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean it’s all relative. It could be +10F for winter here and it’d still be too cold for me.

1877-1878 in DLH

Dec +15.6F
Jan +9.3F
Feb +15.6F (yes same dep as Dec)
Mar +11.8F

Roughly +13F for DJFM is pretty wild

Absolutely all relative. I love arctic cold. Last winter was great even without heavy total snowfall. It was cold, frozen and white. Often times the "warm" spells in strong ninos here is damp overcast with highs 37-40°, which is more uncomfortable imo than dry cold at 0°. 

An active pattern should hopefully promote a temp rollercoaster even though it ends up mild in the mean.

[michsnowfreak]

42 minutes ago, Layman said:

Saw this fun little graphic at Accuweather. 15”-30” for Boston?

Pretty big ranges. But the low end of the range seems ridiculous for Chicago. They've had 4 winters on record with less than 15", most recently 1949. They did however have a sub-20" winter a few years ago. Detroit has not had a sub-20" winter since 1969 (came close in 1983). And Buffalo is always a wildcard depending if lake bands set up over the airport or elsewhere. Boston, Philadelphia and NYC will likely be too low if indeed a huge noreaster occurs.