2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thinking of the Great Atlantic Coastal Storm of March 1962 storm I researched a bit. The Atlantic was active in 1961 then relatively quiet in 1962 (least active since 1946.) El Nino didn't appear until 1963. Another 1962 storm, less well known to those of us in the East, was the Columbus Day Storm, the most devastating in Oregon history. 

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic.

Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

[Tallis Rockwell]

For the first time in awhile, I don't want a hurricane in any context anywhere in the Atlantic

[vortex95]

Now the 00z GFS does what the GFS likes to do w/ TCs in the long range, overly aggressive.  What the other global models show do not look very tropical.  The system is highly asymmetrical and looks more like a monsoonal depression or STS.  With a front fcst across the central Gulf, that appears reasonable.  It reminds me of ET lows that you get in the cool season in the Gulf when strong El Nino is present, and the subtropical jet does become more defined in the next week.

You can get strong ET lows in Oct in this area.  Here's one from Oct 3, 1992.  Take note @GaWx of the big rains in Brunswick GA!

        A strong low pressure system moving northeast out of the Gulf
        spawned several tornadoes in the Tampa, Florida area.
        One person was killed and 23 homes were destroyed as an F2
        twister moved through Largo.  3 people were killed and 75 were
        injured in Pinellas Park as an F3 tornado ripped through.
        Total damage was estimated at 32 million dollars.  Heavy rain
        spread over northern Florida and Georgia on this day and
        continued into the 4th.  Jacksonville, Florida recorded 8.69
        inches of rain and Brunswick, Georgia was deluged with 10.14
        inches in 24 hours.  Strong winds and a long fetch pushed tides
        4 to 5 feet above normal along the west coast of Florida.
      

      

[NorthHillsWx]

Whatever develops (or doesn’t) in the gulf late week will be the last chance at a hurricane this season 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Whatever develops (or doesn’t) in the gulf late week will be the last chance at a hurricane this season 

I think so. Season is just about done. Incredible futility for the basin as a whole.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25

[olafminesaw]

[MANDA]

31 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Nice graphic.

Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

[NorthHillsWx]

The Gulf system has legs 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The Gulf system has legs 

Agree 100%. Now will they be T, ST, or ET legs? I think T legs most likely and ET least likely.

 Speaking of T legs:

0Z UKMET: 5th run in a row with a Gulf TC with it maxing at a mid level TS and land falling over tip of SE LA followed by MS/AL border on Saturday with plentiful rains and even some areas of flooding rains over the SE US over weekend with heaviest Gulf coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 91.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 84 23.2N 91.7W 1004 28
0000UTC 09.10.2026 96 22.8N 91.3W 1003 26
1200UTC 09.10.2026 108 25.3N 90.3W 1003 35
0000UTC 10.10.2026 120 26.4N 90.7W 1000 38
1200UTC 10.10.2026 132 29.0N 89.5W 998 45
0000UTC 11.10.2026 144 33.4N 88.1W 992 27
1200UTC 11.10.2026 156 35.4N 87.9W 1002 18
0000UTC 12.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

Up to 10/50% as of 1AM CDT advisory:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Gulf of America:
A surface trough of low pressure has developed along the coast of 
Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of America. Although environmental 
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, gradual 
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression 
could form by the second half of this week while it initially 
drifts eastward before turning northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

Now cherry (30%/70%):

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This
system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Now cherry (30%/70%):

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This
system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

This one might deserve a thread since it will have at least some level of impact along the gulf coast 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing to watch is the EPAC cherry. If it becomes strong (like many models are showing) it’s outflow very likely contributes to increased shear in the gulf and could seriously inhibit that system 

[eyewall]

54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One thing to watch is the EPAC cherry. If it becomes strong (like many models are showing) it’s outflow very likely contributes to increased shear in the gulf and could seriously inhibit that system 

Good! I do not want to have to work this system lol. 

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This one might deserve a thread since it will have at least some level of impact along the gulf coast 

Flood watches have been issued for most North Florida counties and some south Georgia and Alabama counties. 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426-GAZ122>131-
142>148-155>161-060000-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-261006T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-Holmes-Washington-
Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf-Inland Franklin-Gadsden-
Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Inland Wakulla-South Walton-Coastal
Bay-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
Wakulla-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-Randolph-Calhoun-
Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Worth-Turner-Tift-Ben Hill-Irwin-Early-
Miller-Baker-Mitchell-Colquitt-Cook-Berrien-Seminole-Decatur-Grady-
Thomas-Brooks-Lowndes-Lanier-
Including the cities of Bethel, Babcock, Hoggard Mill, Dalkeith, West
Bainbridge, Capitola, Saint Joe Beach, Marianna, Vicksburg,
Mitchell Co A/P, Panama City, Metcalf, Monticello, Seminole State
Park, Simsville, Alpine Heights, Center Ridge, Freeport, Geneva,
Donalsonville, East Albany, Lockett Crossing, Yeomans, Davis Park, De
Funiak Spring Airport, Richter Crossroads, Moultrie
Municipal A/P, Dothan, Cairo, Southport, Coles, Peterson Hill,
Moultrie, Spence Airport, Howard Creek, High Bluff, Sumatra, Beverly,
Lovett, Turquoise Beach, Cottle, Cordrays Mill, Milford, Bonifay,
Chaires, Madison, Chipley, Chula, Bannockburn, Barker Store, Pelham,
Hartford, Santa Clara, Tallahassee, Ganer,
Riverturn, Doverel, Pine Valley, Ausmac, Decatur Co A/P,
Williamsburg, Newton, Commissary Hill, Holmes County Airport,
Graceville, Grady Co A/P, Iveys Mill, Bellview, Shivers Mill,
Berrien Co A/P, Hawkinstown, Tifton, Elpino, Centerville, Cluster
Springs, Nashville, Littman, Wetumpka, Killearn Estates, Pinetta,
Panacea, Albany, Fadette, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Lewis,
Pleasant Ridge, Camilla, Santa Rosa Beach, Lynn Haven, Apalachicola,
Nixon, Lynn, Killearn Lakes, Browntown, Festus, Cottonwood, Glendale,
Steinham Store, Dillon, Apalachicola Airport, Bainbridge, Blakely,
Bowens Mill, Courthouse, Chaires Crossroads, Grooverville, Kern, Oak
Grove, Thomasville, Twin
Pole, Dawson Municipal A/P, Barneyville, Springvale, Herod,
Quincy Airport, Early Co A/P, Cooktown, Brooks Co A/P, Cobb
Crossroads, Crystal Lake, Greggs, Odena, Little Hope, Alma,
Sandestin, Benevolence, Blue Springs, Queensland, Leonia, Wakulla
Springs, Hobby, Sweetwater, Waterloo, Palmyra, Alfords, Red Store
Crossroads, Lakeland, Cherry Lake, Ashburn, Sunsweet, Honeyville,
Magnolia Beach, Colquitt, Walker, Marysville, Buckhorn, Westwood,
Abba, Empress, Sylvester Airport, Worth, Valdosta Regional Airport,
Casa Blanco, Adel, Fort Gadsden, Graves, Hacoda, Scotts Ferry,
Branchville, Dickey, Morgan, Valdosta, Hanover, Wewahitchka, Capps,
Moncrief, Five Points, Port Leon, Pine Park,
Vilas, Elmodel Wma, Ashford, Ocilla, Port St. Joe, Pasco, Hanson,
Irwinville, Fitzgerald, Douglasville, Point Washington, Tilton,
Boykin, Cuba, Ashton, Beachton, Bennett, Drifton, Hopewell,
Arlington, Jarrott, Beacon Hill, Econfina, Enterprise, Bay City,
Turner City, Dixie, Saint Marks, Morgan Place, Harding, Mayhaw,
Dawson, Nankin, De Funiak Springs, Pretoria, Southwest Ga
Regional A/P, Sneads, Bradfordville, Bunker, Chipley Municipal
Airport, Hilliardville, Hays Place, Sylvester, Capel, Logan Field
Municipal A/P, Poplar Head, Portland, New Hope, Dills, Cook Co
A/P, Laconte, Frink, Buck Siding, Forrester, Medart, Overstreet,
Quincy, Wilma, Callaway, Cotton, Donaldsonville A/P, Abe Springs,
Quitman, Springvale Station, Clarksville, Teeterville, Maclay State
Gardens, Sopchoppy, Creels, Leesburg, Hardin Heights, Weber, Argyle,
Orange Hill, Central City, Chattahoochee, Clarks Mill, Cuthbert,
Gammage, Isabella, Fairchild, White City, Geneva
Municipal A/P, Youngstown, Durham, Gordy, Edison, Eucheeanna,
Massee, Red Rock, Malone, and Blountstown
234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 /134 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026/

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following
  areas, Geneva and Houston, Florida, including the following areas,
  Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal
  Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland
  Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland
  Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Madison, North Walton, Northern Liberty,
  South Walton, Southern Liberty and Washington, and Georgia,
  including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks,
  Calhoun, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin,
  Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Randolph, Seminole,
  Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth.

* WHEN...Through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for most
    of the area with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches
    possible through Monday, especially along the Emerald and
    Forgotten Coasts. Another area of concern is across south-central
    Georgia where locally heavy rainfall since Friday afternoon has
    primed the region more so than the rest of our area, so it wont
    take as much rain to cause flash flooding. Across the flood watch
    area, very high rain rates due to the tropical air mass may lead
    to flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

PK

[WxWatcher007]

Thread up now.