2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. 

I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done. 

8 named storms looks good on paper until you look at how abysmal the ACE is

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

8 named storms looks good on paper until you look at how abysmal the ACE is

The 1961-1990 avg is 10.5 NS per year.  The current 30 yr avg 1991-2020 is 14.5.  In last 10,  is it 18.

Lots of factors.

1) 1970-1994 was an unfavorable phase of the AMO for Atlantic TCs.  Since 1995, it has been favorable.  2) Many more short-lived TS that used to be not declared or missed now get a name and as late as 1994, an off-season HU was not counted/included.  3) Prior to about 2000, NHC rarely declared/included ST storms. Since that time, they declare them routinely.

Also, from 1989 to 1994, there was only one operational GOES satellite for the U.S. and it was positioned at 98W  So this meant no real coverage for the eastern Atlantic.  Meteosat and polar imagery were available for this part of the Atlantic, but it was not received in real-time for hurricane ops.

Another thing that changed is when the next generation GOES became available by 1995, not only did we have two GOES satellite again for better coverage, but also image resolution and frequency from these new satellites increased.  And when we got to the next "next" generation of GOES satellites, launched in 2017, the resolution of imagery increased again and the amount of data per hour went up by more than an order of magnitude.  For instance, we get a full disk every 10 min now.  Prior, it was only every 3 hr.  A CONUS every 5 min,  It was only every 30 min prior. And we went from 5 satellite channels to 16.  This all greatly enhanced our capabilities to track and diagnose TCs in real-time.

Purely from a standards/practices and technological POV, you can't compare on a level playing field prior decades to the last 3 or so when it comes to NS counts.  And this applies for the entire globe.

A true long-term avg, accounting for AMO cycles, needs to be 50-70 years of high quality data.

[bigtenfan]

8 named storms looks good on paper until you look at how abysmal the ACE is

As a S Florida resident I will take 8 storms like this every hurricane season.


.

[wdrag]

On 9/21/2026 at 2:38 PM, rclab said:

Unlike the responses from well versed forum members, I can only offer that I am very happy to see a post from you. Stay well and please if possible visit again. As always …. 

Well... it's done (not a subtropical storm but...big moderate, spotty major impacts with 2-8" of Rain I95 corridor, two surges of power outages, at least moderate CF and at least moderate dune damage).

 

I sure hope everyone agrees it was VERY well modeled by the EPS/EC suite vs the United States GEFS back at least to 9/21..., a very good planner. Debris cleanup now. 

Will check back when we get some comparable headline extensive moderate or major impact coastal storms this winter. 

[GaWx]

 Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda.  I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

[MANDA]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda.  I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

Crazy storm in a crazy season.  The rebirth of Fay and the birth of not so horrible Hanna will get us to just over 10 ACE points season to date as we close September.  Still waiting on the first hurricane of the season.  We've blown past that record.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. 

I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done. 

Not really. You had low activity seasons in 2006 (after setting the one-year, 2-year, and 3-year ACE records in 2003-05) and 2013 (after 3 seasons of 19 storms in 2010-12). Both of the years that followed (2007 and 2014) also had low activity/ACE seasons. So, 2027 could be another low activity season, even if we get a la nina (keep in mind, 2007 was a strong la nina).

[jconsor]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda.  I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

Larry,
I think that UKMET forecast showing Fay coming back this weekend is likely not a total outlier.

Moreover, seems Fay may have been deactivated too fast; it's almost like she's taunting NHC - every time they try to deactivate her, convection increases and she refuses to die!

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105201133736415667

[MANDA]

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, jconsor said:

Larry,
I think that UKMET forecast showing Fay coming back this weekend is likely not a total outlier.

Moreover, seems Fay may have been deactivated too fast; it's almost like she's taunting NHC - every time they try to deactivate her, convection increases and she refuses to die!

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105201133736415667

Yaakov,

 So, the Energizer Bunny may really come back for a 3rd time? Holy cow!

 Here’s the 0Z UKMET, which suggests that:

0Z UKMET actually has it as a non-TC tomorrow:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.3N 50.8W 1014 22
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING


 When I first saw this part of the 0Z textual output, I thought that even the UKMET had finally given up on it. But as I looked further down to look at other TCs, what did I see? Fay came back 36 hours later!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.4N 58.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 25.4N 58.6W 1015 25
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 26.8N 59.6W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 28.3N 60.5W 1014 26
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 30.3N 60.5W 1014 26
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 32.2N 59.4W 1014 27
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 33.6N 58.4W 1013 26
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 34.6N 56.7W 1011 25
0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 35.4N 55.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

[olafminesaw]