2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

Haha, yeah, Fay just got decapitated. Oh well...

[NorthHillsWx]

Valiant effort. Next. 

[wdrag]

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt!  So good to hear from you.  We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum.  Hope all well with you.

My opinion.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast.  Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially.  Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now.  Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

[MANDA]

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane.  Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. 

As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. 

This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. 

This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation. 

[NEG NAO]

as of today - most of the significant impact from the coastal LP will be further east BUT this could still change - stay tuned !

[rclab]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Unlike the responses from well versed forum members, I can only offer that I am very happy to see a post from you. Stay well and please if possible visit again. As always …. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane.  Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

We stand a legitimate chance of no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. 

[Amped]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

Futility achieved. Only 1914 didn't have a cane at this point.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, Amped said:

Futility achieved. Only 1914 didn't have a cane at this point.

This short paper from 2007 (attached) from Chris Landsea of NHC summaries well the issues w/ "missing" TCs in the Atlantic.

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900

From the paper:
In particular, Landsea et al. [2004] esti-
mated an undercount bias of zero to six
tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and
1885 and zero to four per year between 1886
and 1910. These undercounts roughly take
into account the typical size of tropical
cyclones, the density of shipping tracks over
the Atlantic basin, and the amount of popu-
lated coastline. As one goes back further in
time, the numbers of ships and shipping
lanes decreases and fewer people live in the
tropical and subtropical coastal regions.
These factors make it increasingly likely that
some tropical cyclones would not be
counted the farther back in time examined.


I like how he compared 1933 to 2005, which is #1 and #2 for most ACE in a season.  Look at the gap out in the cntrl and ern Atlantic.  The 20 storms in 1933 I bet is at least 5-8 too low.  We saw what happened in 2005 when everything went "right."  We were getting late- season oddballs Oct-Dec often cntrl and ern Atlantic, and that season redefined what we call a TC and expanded what was possible!

He said that as to hurricanes from 1851 to about 1940, anywhere from 0 to 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic were likely missed in any given year, w/ the avg being likely close to 1.  Meaning that 1914 probably had a hurricane, just never detected.  When you see something like Fay recently, and tiny systems like Oscar even when not in the middle of nowhere, you see how the probability is quite high here.

It is fascinating stuff to look at history and do "sleuthing!"  The Hurricane Reanalysis Project displays this best.  I wish other agencies would do this for TC basin worldwide.  There is *lot* of data out there that could be gathered, analyzed, and much to be found. 

And you do not have to go the far back.  Full geostationary sat coverage did not exist in the western Pacific until 1987 and not until 1989 over the IO.  However, for over 25 years up to this point, we had plenty of polar imagery, and as I mentioned, the delays in transmission of polar imagery in those days was several hours or more, so it could not be used operationally to assign proper TC intensity.  It's the main reason why if you want to look at trends for TCs in the IO, you really can't start until 1990, and by extension, global TCs are well.  The SIO is the second most active basin globally for ACE per year.
 

landsea-eos-may012007.pdf