2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen.  It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low.  In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure!  FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going.

But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened.

1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally.  They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.
 

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

Several days after Andrew, Typhoon Omar made a direct hit on Guam. taking out the operation of JTWC (which was based on Guam at the time).  NHC was almost taken out by Andrew, and the following month, CPHC in Honolulu narrowly adverted Iniki.  The E/CPAC had 27 NS in 1992, the record for this basin.  Quite a year!

[annunciated]

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

[Windspeed]

The first wave the OP GFS had been persistently developing the past few days was lost on the most recent 00z run. No surprise, around 100-120 hrs, it gets mauled by 30-50 kt westerlies. The 2nd wave mentioned in the previous post hits the same wall around 200 hrs out. Something probably will hit a favorable pocket eventually, and perhaps the deep mind is seeing that, but the upper levels will have to chill out. Not sure how the AI models are handling those same modeled westerlies simulated on the GFS and ECMWF operationals at advanced hours. That being said, recent EURO runs have been flirting with the build of dominant 500 MB heights over the ECONUS and WATL around Labor Day. We'll see if one of the later AEWs can find its way under that ridge and a more favorable ULAC pocket amidst the upper level chaos.

[olafminesaw]

12 hours ago, annunciated said:

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

Last night's Euro picked this up as well

[vortex95]

W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs.  Got this reply:

RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay.  But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes.  

Important info given it is a new model.  Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET has 2 ATL TSs:

-it has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW:

 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38

 

————

-It has a TS form in the subtropical region:

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

 

[GaWx]

^1) The 12Z UKMET still has the TS in the subtropical region.

2) The 12Z UKMET still has a TS in the MDR moving rapidly WNW (22-25 mph) after TCG early next week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

[Retrobuc]

On 8/16/2026 at 9:27 AM, bigtenfan said:

While I do understand that even in a hostile El Nino year, a storm can sneak through  and create  widespread destruction, as a SE Florida homeowner I am very happy to be reading these posts.

What I find most amazing is that here we are on August 16 and the main 2026 Atlantic season thread is only 6 pager so far.

Couldnt agree more.  you accept these things living in FL, but are happy to have seasons like this as well.  I think this is the first time I have come here in weeks to see if there is anything brewing.

[GaWx]

 Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st.

 The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run.

The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast.

The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area.

This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.

[GaWx]

^The African wave made it onto the 8PM TWO as a lemon. 

0Z UKMET: TCG delayed 24 hrs vs prior 2 runs. Again becomes a TS (delayed 12 hrs) that remains low end moving a million mph WNW in MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.7N 28.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 108 11.4N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.9N 34.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 27.08.2026 132 11.8N 38.7W 1005 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 144 12.6N 43.0W 1006 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 47.5W 1006 37
0000UTC 29.08.2026 168 14.7N 52.3W 1007 39

[GaWx]

^12Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours later than last run and 54 hours later than the 2 runs prior to the last one. This run has only a TD moving WNW at 27 mph before then dissipating:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W
12Z UKMET:

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

[MANDA]

I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points.  Zero additional ACE points certainly in play but not ready to go that low just yet but certainly possible.

[WxWatcher007]

Here is my peak season forecast. I do not believe the continental U.S. sees any hurricane landfalls this season.

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm late, but that's what happens when the basin is dead. 

WxWatcher007 2026 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

For those of you that have been around a while you know that this is peak season forecast number eight! Tropical is my chief weather passion. I've tracked it for decades and been chasing it for nearly a decade now with 16 overall chases. Last year was the first time since I started in 2017 that there was no chase. We have Imelda and Humberto doing a fujiwhara off the southeast coast to thank for that. 

August 20 has come and gone and as the late Dr. Bill Gray would ring the bell heralding the start of peak season, this annual forecast is doing it too. Here's a look at past grades for the peak season forecast, which strictly covers August 20 - October 20, when approximately 2/3 of average Atlantic season activity occurs. 

Seasonal Grades

2019 Grade: B+
2020 Grade: A-
2021 Grade: C
2022 Grade: B
2023 Grade: A
2024 Grade: B
2025 Grade: B+

I've done fairly well for myself, and I've avoided disasters like the 2021 season, but now it's time to get back into A territory. We have high confidence that the 2026 peak season will all but certainly lead the overall 2026 season to end well below normal, but how low will we go? 

Quick Recap
So far, it has been a very quiet season, as expected, with only three named storms. On average, by this date (Aug 22) we should have 5 NS and 1 H. We've been nowhere close to a hurricane, but we have had two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, make landfall, with Arthur breaking the Louisiana rainfall record. So far, the AI guidance that blew past legacy models last year in tropical cyclone genesis have been excellent again and worthy of serious respect, but the hostile conditions of the Main Development Region (MDR) played tricks on all the models with destroying Invests 92L and 94L. As of today we have an underwhelming signal in the Atlantic, with two subtropical areas of interest and one MDR area that could be our first of a meaningful few MDR systems during the peak. 

 

The overall tenor of the season so far has been very quiet, dominated by what is likely to be a historically strong El Nino. Overall NS numbers are one thing, but another essential way to tell the story of the season thus far is in ACE. Even though few named storms are expected by this point in the season, we have had seasons recently with few NS and higher ACE relative to climatology. This year? Both NS and ACE are flat. Really flat. 

This really tells the story of the season so far. Conditions have not just been hostile to any development, the development has been weak and short lived due to hostile conditions. The Nino has laid the foundation for a very quiet season, but the peak season means that climatology should open some windows for development. In recent years, the seasons have been structurally backloaded with our strongest and most active periods, but this season I think the strengthening El Nino means that rather than a subseasonal period that favors a backloaded season, the windows for TC genesis are more sporadic and based on in-situ short term mid to upper level patterns that briefly break consistently hostile conditions.

 With all that said, it's time to get to the forecast. Note that the average seasonal NS/H/MH numbers are 14/7/3 and we are currently at 3/0/0.  

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 5 
Hurricanes: 3
Major Hurricanes: 1

Here are the factors that make up my forecast. 

1. ENSO
I think this will be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons this century, and in 2026 ENSO is fundamentally driving the show in the Atlantic. To illustrate the absolutely massive turnaround between last year and this year, here is a comparison of the 3.4 region. 

We went from cool neutral/weak Nina in 2025...

To blazing hot in 2026...

Every indication suggests that the El Nino will continue to strengthen during the peak of the hurricane season, and with the atmospheric response already being felt in a big way across the basin (more on that later), everything points to a historically strong Nino that dominates our hurricane season. 

I'd also note that in addition to the big El Nino we see above, the ribbon of cooler than normal Atlantic SSTs near the Equator also denotes a potential Atlantic Nina, which would only aid in suppressing Atlantic activity, especially in the MDR.

The progression of the Nino has been impressive to say the least, and we're going to have a potentially historic one right through the rest of the season. Not much else needs to be said. 

I'll get to some of the impacts on other factors in the sections below, but basically, a big Nino is already producing a hot Pacific hurricane season with much of the basin above climo for ACE so far with more to come. That rising motion creates hostile wind shear in the Atlantic, and also brings sinking air that suppresses activity. 

The result is what you'd expect. Much less activity during Nino years, and especially so during strong Nino conditions. Image below courtesy of Michael Lowry (he's worth a follow).

 

2. Wind Shear
Shear has dominated the basin so far this season, and it's not showing any sign of letting up on a structural level. You can sum up what we've seen so far in two images. The first is a current look at shear across the basin. 

If you want to see an El Nino inspired graveyard, look above. This is what atmospheric response looks like. There is a persistent ribbon of very high wind shear across the MDR. While there is less shear in the subtropics, this has been a relatively short lived feature as much of the basin has been overwhelmed with shear. In fact, it's been historically high. 

Alarm bells are ringing for shear in the Atlantic not just because shear has been historically high looking back as recently as July, but because even with the gradual decline from that position, we still see very high to extreme shear across the MDR. Note that even as we enter the peak of the season, shear is still well above normal in the Tropical Atlantic. In the Caribbean, shear has come down from off the charts levels, but again, that hasn't changed the overall conditions in that part of the basin. It's ugly, and it's not going away. 

This kind of shear renders even an active West African Monsoon and active wave train useless. Vigorous waves that roll off Africa have little chance of even staying coherent as deep layer shear tears them apart. With this setup, I expect most waves to be obliterated long before they reach relatively more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic. This is a radical departure from recent seasons where even a hostile Tropical Atlantic couldn't stop waves from exploding in favorable conditions further west. 

Note however that in the subtropics, we do see shear lowering below climatology. That does fit warm ENSO, so I do anticipate some activity there even though it won't be much. 

I'm spending a lot of time on this because it is the defining environmental factor in a suppressed peak season, but even a few weeks out, guidance does not relent on shear in the MDR even as we approach the actual peak of the season. This further strengthens my belief that we will need to watch for short to medium term windows rather than an overall shift to a more favorable backloaded season structure. 

2. SSTs & OHC
In a season like this, the sea surface temperature anomalies and oceanic heat content numbers matter far less than usual, but they do matter. Even here, most data suggest that an underwhelming peak season is on tap. Recall the global SSTa image I posted above. That would suggest that the Atlantic is warm, but it actually isn't looking deeper. We've had some historically warm periods in recent years that led to big hurricanes. The best example being the Caribbean power keg that led to Melissa last season. That's not evident this year across virtually the entire basin. 

In an absolute sense, the Atlantic can sustain tropical activity, and the best chance of that is in the western Atlantic and Gulf where absolute SSTs are highest.

But look one layer deeper at the sea surface temperature anomalies and you will see two problems. The first is the MDR from the Tropical Atlantic all the way into the Caribbean being near to below normal. The second, and even bigger issue is the warmth in the basin being concentrated in the subtropics. That will yes, increase the chances of subtropical development, but in the MDR it will act to suppress activity with a whole lot of stability--an issue that has been a problem in the eastern Atlantic this entire decade.

Go another level deeper and you realize that the Atlantic isn't anywhere near warm enough for high volume, high end activity. 

This is the difference from the global mean. You can see the Nino clear as day, but on the Atlantic side? The MDR is substantially colder all the way into the Gulf! You see how this manifests itself as we look at OHC, which is in my mind a measure of what kind of higher end (major hurricane) activity a basin can sustain. It's cool to have 30C waters off the southeast coast, but is it actually deep enough to sustain multiple major hurricanes in a short period of time? The answer appears to be no. 

Not only is most of the warmth concentrated in the western Atlantic and subtropics...

There's actually much less of it compared to climatology in the usually warm areas. While a graphical average will show near average OHC in the MDR, as you can see below, there are numerous pockets where OHC is analyzed to be below climo...

What this suggests to me is that if we do see a major hurricane or two, they will come north of the Antilles in a zone that usually means a recurve OTS. The caveat here is a short fuse, rapidly intensifying system in a window that gets maximized, but that's going to be hard to do in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf as we get to later in the season and advancing fronts bring wind shear to the Gulf and off the eastern U.S. coastline. The Gulf stands out with its average OHC. 

3. Stability, Dry Air, & SAL
SAL hasn't been that big a factor this season as its been overtaken by historically strong shear, and I won't spend much time on it. As we get into September and October SAL should decline substantially as climo favors. In fact, compared to other years, SAL isn't that bad over the Atlantic. 

The much bigger issue heading into the peak is stability forced by the SSTa orientation in the Atlantic basin, the possibility of an Atlantic Nina, and El Nino forcing sinking air into the basin. Stability and subsidence have been issues in the MDR for years, especially the eastern Tropical Atlantic, as you've heard me talk about...for years. This year, we're seeing this bleed into the Caribbean, where there's a near historic lack of instability that could normally spur development. 

In the Tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, things are not much better. 

Anything that comes off the African coast is going to need help in the form of a favorable MJO and passage of a CCKW. Otherwise, it's going to be hard for anything to take off given the background state of historically hostile shear and mediocre thermodynamic conditions across the MDR. Along the east coast and Gulf, we've see more vertical instability than usual, but again, you need to get a wave or front or some kind of trigger to take advantage of that and develop a TC. To date, there have been exceedingly few opportunities. I do think later in the forecast period we could see the presence of our usual CAG setup break this some, but higher end activity looks unlikely if the background shear state remains and we don't see a significant uptick in SST/OHC levels. Once again, in the subtropics conditions look more favorable relative to the MDR with instability levels near normal. 

4. MJO & CCKW
The final factor I want to jump into is the one I mentioned above, and whether "well" timed MJO changes and CCKWs could enhance activity. I think they will be needed given how hostile the background state is. However, in a season where so much aligns against activity itself, this will only take you so far. In prior years, we had standing waves in favorable positions east of Africa that would promote active wave trains and rising motion that would offset the stability issues we've had in the basin. This year, through the peak of the season it looks like we won't get much help. 

There will be favorable periods, but it could be later in the peak aside from the kind of one off spurts in activity we've seen dominate the season so far. Everything suggests that what we've seen is what we will continue to get. 

Overall
To be sure, there will be activity. It's almost impossible to go through a peak season and not see some activity, but we're staring at what could be an extremely quiet peak with TCs developing based on whatever short term favorable window opens rather than because a longer window is open because the background state makes the basin conducive. That is an essential distinction, because it means that we're looking at very few periods and very few pockets where something can actually develop. Guidance is focused on a coming wave off Africa early next week, but even looking beyond that, there aren't a whole lot of other things being picked up by guidance. This is going to be a slow going peak, with activity more likely focused in the western Atlantic and subtropics, most likely after our usual peak of September 10. 

I think the most likely vectors for development will be ones that are climatologically favored for their period. Think upper level or baroclinic lows becoming tropical off a front in the subtropics or the open Atlantic, a later peak season CAG creating a window for something to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf (including the Bay of Campeche which has a topographical edge for TC genesis), and maybe a wave or two in the MDR. Climo will need to be maximized for things to develop. 

I do think something becomes major, but it's just as likely IMO that nothing does. I think the fact that something develops probably means the environment is open for strengthening to a hurricane, but perhaps barely so. I could see 2-3 but hedged higher in case October opens the door for development off the east coast or out in the subtropics. 

I do not believe there will be a major hurricane or hurricane hit in the continental U.S. this season. Homebrew is the only chance for a TC strike this year. 

Hope you enjoyed reading. Thank you and happy tracking. 

 

 

[Diggiebot]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Here is my peak season forecast. I do not believe the continental U.S. sees any hurricane landfalls this season.

 

I think we get one probably a weak one. Cat one or two