2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen.  It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low.  In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure!  FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going.

But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened.

1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally.  They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.
 

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

Several days after Andrew, Typhoon Omar made a direct hit on Guam. taking out the operation of JTWC (which was based on Guam at the time).  NHC was almost taken out by Andrew, and the following month, CPHC in Honolulu narrowly adverted Iniki.  The E/CPAC had 27 NS in 1992, the record for this basin.  Quite a year!

[annunciated]

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

[Windspeed]

The first wave the OP GFS had been persistently developing the past few days was lost on the most recent 00z run. No surprise, around 100-120 hrs, it gets mauled by 30-50 kt westerlies. The 2nd wave mentioned in the previous post hits the same wall around 200 hrs out. Something probably will hit a favorable pocket eventually, and perhaps the deep mind is seeing that, but the upper levels will have to chill out. Not sure how the AI models are handling those same modeled westerlies simulated on the GFS and ECMWF operationals at advanced hours. That being said, recent EURO runs have been flirting with the build of dominant 500 MB heights over the ECONUS and WATL around Labor Day. We'll see if one of the later AEWs can find its way under that ridge and a more favorable ULAC pocket amidst the upper level chaos.

[olafminesaw]

12 hours ago, annunciated said:

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

Last night's Euro picked this up as well

[vortex95]

W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs.  Got this reply:

RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay.  But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes.  

Important info given it is a new model.  Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET has 2 ATL TSs:

-it has a TS form in the MDR early next week that then moves WNW:

 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38

 

————

-It has a TS form in the subtropical region:

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

 

[GaWx]

^1) The 12Z UKMET still has the TS in the subtropical region.

2) The 12Z UKMET still has a TS in the MDR moving rapidly WNW (22-25 mph) after TCG early next week:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

[Retrobuc]

On 8/16/2026 at 9:27 AM, bigtenfan said:

While I do understand that even in a hostile El Nino year, a storm can sneak through  and create  widespread destruction, as a SE Florida homeowner I am very happy to be reading these posts.

What I find most amazing is that here we are on August 16 and the main 2026 Atlantic season thread is only 6 pager so far.

Couldnt agree more.  you accept these things living in FL, but are happy to have seasons like this as well.  I think this is the first time I have come here in weeks to see if there is anything brewing.

[GaWx]

 Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st.

 The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run.

The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast.

The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area.

This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.