2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen.  It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low.  In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure!  FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going.

But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened.

1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally.  They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.
 

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active.  Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far.  However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks. 

Several days after Andrew, Typhoon Omar made a direct hit on Guam. taking out the operation of JTWC (which was based on Guam at the time).  NHC was almost taken out by Andrew, and the following month, CPHC in Honolulu narrowly adverted Iniki.  The E/CPAC had 27 NS in 1992, the record for this basin.  Quite a year!

[annunciated]

Deepmind really wanting to pick up the second wave into the SW Atlantic. Some IFS/AIFS-Ens. members also agree with this.

[Windspeed]

The first wave the OP GFS had been persistently developing the past few days was lost on the most recent 00z run. No surprise, around 100-120 hrs, it gets mauled by 30-50 kt westerlies. The 2nd wave mentioned in the previous post hits the same wall around 200 hrs out. Something probably will hit a favorable pocket eventually, and perhaps the deep mind is seeing that, but the upper levels will have to chill out. Not sure how the AI models are handling those same modeled westerlies simulated on the GFS and ECMWF operationals at advanced hours. That being said, recent EURO runs have been flirting with the build of dominant 500 MB heights over the ECONUS and WATL around Labor Day. We'll see if one of the later AEWs can find its way under that ridge and a more favorable ULAC pocket amidst the upper level chaos.