2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.

[NavarreDon]

We have orange,

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


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