3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[Baum]

2-4” wind whipped event still in play. Top 5 season event still on the table. 

[McHenrySnow]

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

2-4” wind whipped event still in play. Top 5 season event still on the table. 

And Tuesday morning is going to be pretty damn cold. 

[RemoteSenses]

How much will stick??  Combined with 12-20" of concrete and 45mph winds fun times ahead.

 
 

Hopefully not that much….that same area in NE MI got slammed last March. Our state forests got destroyed. Looked like a bomb went off.

Ironically almost to the day last year…

[RemoteSenses]

trending very unfavorably for central MI to get much of anything other than maybe a light glaze, and a couple inches of snow. sad

At this point I’m planning on just rain lol

[Harry Perry]

Looking forward to 65-70° with 50° windchills Sunday. 

[sbnwx85]

Love where I sit for this one. Severe threat for damaging wind and a spin up Sunday night followed by 2-5” of snow (maybe more… we’ll see how hi-res models handle LE) on Monday/Monday night. This may upgrade my winter rating from A to A+

[Weather Mike]

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

[Harry Perry]

11 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Love where I sit for this one. Severe threat for damaging wind and a spin up Sunday night followed by 2-5” of snow (maybe more… we’ll see how hi-res models handle LE) on Monday/Monday night. This may upgrade my winter rating from A to A+

This.
 

I think the lake effect signal will only increase between now and Monday. Willing to bet we both end up with a few inches and some storms. 

[Chicago Storm]

10 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

one of the main issues is that we just don't have a ton of people that live up in the portion of mn, wi, and mi that are a lock for the goods.

and the ones that we do have - have chimed in with their interest.

[A-L-E-K]

like 6 people live in the UP, thread quite active considering it's DAB for most areas people live

[Weather Mike]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

one of the main issues are that we just don't have a ton of people that live up in the portion of mn, wi, and mi that are a lock for the goods.

and the ones that we do have - have chimed in with their interest.

thanks as I follow you and you may not know, but I have learned a lot from you. 

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

I've sensed cautious optimism from you lately. I still think it's strange given the moving pieces we haven't really seen any large swings in guidance. I guess modeling isn't that terrible then

i wouldn't say that i'm optimistic. it's just more-so knowing that nothing is locked in yet (even if some seem to think that it is), and interested in seeing how it all pans out.

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Any thoughts on whether the snowfall in the Upper Midwest overnight and this morning could tighten up the baroclinic zone and help the cold push a bit further south than currently modeled? Or any type of impact of the new snow cover on the various moving pieces in general?

I guess we'll see it in the 18z runs, if there's any truth to this.  I know it's weenie rule #500, but why not. 

 

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

as usual name of the game is complex wave interactions (especially so with this) and baroclinic zone largely irrelevant imo

just be glad we're hanging onto good consensus for the rapid deepening in our backyard which can often hold surprises

 

this set-up, with the secondary quick-deepening slp, isn't really a baroclinic zone rider.

the path it will take will be fully dependent on wave ejection/interaction/phasing.

[Chicago Storm]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

like 6 people live in the UP, thread quite active considering it's DAB for most areas people live

it is, and that's good to see.

i've said before that the folks up north need to create threads and post more often.

 

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS

Thelatest thinking is that snow accumulations would generally be in
the 2-4 inch range (60-80% chance) for this event with the
highest amounts forecast to occur north of I-80 and in northwest
IL. However, there remains a 15-20% chance for localized
amounts upwards of 6 inches to occur.

Regardless of the snow amounts, the main concern with wintry
side of this system will be the threat for blowing and drifting
snow as gusty northwest winds develop behind the low. With wind
gusts expected to be in excess of 40-45+ mph Sunday night into
Monday any falling snow will be blown around and if snow can be
"fluffed" up enough as temperatures cool then some drifting snow
may also materialize leading to hazardous travel. Given that
there is still uncertainty in snow amounts, rates, and character
we have opted to hold off on issuing a Winter Storm Watch with
this forecast package. Though if trends continue then a
consideration for a winter weather headline will be needed with
future forecasts.

[A-L-E-K]

Bullish 

[McHenrySnow]

 

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Bullish 

Not really. 

[McHenrySnow]

SPC already has a 45% area for Day 3 in S IN, S IL, and W KY. 

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

SPC already has a 45% area for Day 3 in S IN, S IL, and W KY. 

has forced squall line/qlcs, with damaging winds and embedded tors written all over it.

[Chicago Storm]

i’m surprised we haven’t seen see some random op run keep the main wave more consolidated as it digs, and close it off further south as it goes negative tilt, leading to a ghd1 level solution further south.

i saw a few ens previously do that a day or two ago, but wanted to see the lolz from an op.

18z nam…

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z nam…

Just about to say, the 18z NAM is SE. Not that every run matters, but I'd take it for sure.

[A-L-E-K]

Was gonna say, the change we want to see

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

I’m in the Philly thread all winter as I service accounts out that way for snow removal.No question, a band of scattered flurries can generate a 15 page thread.

[josh_4184]

5 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Just about to say, the 18z NAM is SE. Not that every run matters, but I'd take it for sure.

Agreed glad something trended SE, not a fan that it was the NAM, would prefer Euro but its something. 

[A-L-E-K]

Comma head thunder pingers

[McHenrySnow]

2 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Agreed glad something trended SE, not a fan that it was the NAM, woudl prefer Euro but its something. 

Euro has been all over the place, not sure it'd matter. I won't trust anything until tomorrow 0z at best. 

[ILSNOW]

18z ICON backed down to earth as expected.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

2 hours ago, Weather Mike said:

I wish there was more posts like the NE threads. This is a huge storm and its like crickets in here and if this was the NE thread it would be page 10000 by now. Just sucks living in the Midwest with the lack of enthusiasm as there is a lack of expert opinions and discussions to learn from by underlinks like me 

I wish there were more MN posters. I can only post so much on the weekdays with job and parenting duties. 
 

NAM has me nervous but I’m chalking it up to NAM doing NAM things. 8-24” is a comfortable range at this juncture. 

[McHenrySnow]

27 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

18z ICON backed down to earth as expected.

Location still isn't bad at all. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

That 18Z NAM Solution would have southern MI immediately go from 60s with damaging winds to heavy freezing rain behind the line, brutal