Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Blizzard of 93]

Happy Easter!

As a long time pro Met says every day, “Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got”!

[canderson]

MDT set a record high Saturday (83)

[mahantango#1]

Pennsylvanians really only have two modes, and neither of them is “this weather is nice.” We are either standing in 19-degree wind saying, “I can’t take this cold anymore,” or standing in 82 degrees with 40% humidity saying, “This is disgusting.” There is no middle ground. A 64-degree sunny day lasts about eleven minutes here before somebody says it’s either “still a little chilly in the shade” or “getting a little muggy.” We spend all winter begging for summer, all summer begging for fall, all fall pretending we’re not about to complain about winter again, and then the second it hits 50 in March, somebody’s in cargo shorts at Sheetz acting like we made it.

[mahantango#1]

.45 rain from this mornings event. I wasn't expecting that much, I thought maybe I'd get 2 tenths. But it is needed as we enter the growing season.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Pennsylvanians really only have two modes, and neither of them is “this weather is nice.” We are either standing in 19-degree wind saying, “I can’t take this cold anymore,” or standing in 82 degrees with 40% humidity saying, “This is disgusting.” There is no middle ground. A 64-degree sunny day lasts about eleven minutes here before somebody says it’s either “still a little chilly in the shade” or “getting a little muggy.” We spend all winter begging for summer, all summer begging for fall, all fall pretending we’re not about to complain about winter again, and then the second it hits 50 in March, somebody’s in cargo shorts at Sheetz acting like we made it.

I just had  a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around  0℉ and summer days close to the century mark.  . 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm currently having a discussion with the same voices about a winter grade. Dick and I personally think that it deserves a higher grade then the C I'll be giving it, but It's 5 against 2, and I can't take the screaming anymore.  

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I just had  a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around  0℉ and summer days close to the century mark.  . 

Honestly, I'd be fine with 50 in the winter and 85 in the summer.

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I really can't wait for backdoor cold front season to end. I went out for our coffee and breakfast sandwiches, and the dark, cloudy, murky, foggy, cold and damp look and feel made me instantly depressed.

 

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying.  In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Finished with .60" of welcomed rainfall. 

I hope everyone is enjoying your Easter Sunday.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying.  In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone. 

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

[canderson]

Never fails. Forecast winds for 22 mph - blowing 34 mph 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

Totally worth it!

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

I always appreciate what Dt has to say, but im not exactly feeling this one. It seems like he's only included worst case scenarios. What if it's a meduki or central based moderate /strong among many other questions. A lot of possibilities he didn't include while making uncertainties seem certain.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

Not trying to be a jerk here.but he forgot a lot. That said, i'm sure as we get closer, Dt will be quite informative. 

[canderson]

It’s. So. Windy. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I just got woken up to what sounded like my roof about to get yanked off my house. The wind almost never wakes me up.That had to be one hell of a gust. 

[pawatch]

37 degrees this morning, fired my coal stove back up yesterday for probably a few days.

.28” of rain yesterday and highest wind gust 37mph.

[ChescoWx]

Some unseasonably cold temperatures through mid-week including a hard freeze tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40's which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for the date. We slowly modify to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60's by the weekend. Looking ahead to next week we should see a big warmup well into the 70's before another cool down back to below normal temperatures by late next week. Overall, a dry pattern throughout the period.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 38 with .42" of rain.  Mondays, they are the worst.

[Summit Snow]

So there is this from BGM...

Tonight

A chance of rain and snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow showers between 1am and 2am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

[Jns2183]

It’s. So. Windy. 

The Fatboy awakens!!! Plus a manual rain gauge. I maybe have the worst yard ever for a weather station. But she will do. Even with a garage blocking me to the north I still managed a 18.8mph gust last night

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[pawatch]

This is for Canderson…My sons house.

37 mph wind gusts  

[Jns2183]

Last year the single worst day for Storms were the ones that developed as a backdoor cold front came through the area. Storm motion was to the south west. It did a bunch of wind damage. Does anyone have the dates for the storm?

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[canderson]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

This is for Canderson…My sons house.

37 mph wind gusts  

Ugh been there before. 
 

41 was my highest gust. CTP really failed that forecast. 

[Jns2183]

Central PA In-Depth Series — NEXRAD Beam Coverage & Precipitation Analysis**

For those who haven't been following along, I've been working on a series of data-driven deep dives into the weather observation landscape of central Pennsylvania, the kind of local, granular analysis that doesn't get done because it doesn't scale nationally. Each project starts with a question that's been nagging at me as a 35-year observer of this stretch of the Susquehanna Valley and Ridge-and-Valley terrain.

The two earlier projects in the series are still up and active. The first is the **MDT vs. CXY Bias Deep Dive** a two-era instrumentation study confirming the ~11% precipitation bias between Harrisburg International and Capital City Airport is real and physical, not an instrumentation artifact, spanning cooperative observer records back to 1948 through 2025 ASOS data: https://jns182wx.github.io/kmdt-cxy-analysis/

The second is the **South-Central PA 25 Years of Winter Weather Deep Dive** a comprehensive climatological look at winter precipitation across our region covering storm catalogs, snow ratio verification, RSI maps, and terrain-aware elevation bias decomposition across the ridge-and-valley province: https://jns182wx.github.io/winter-weather/

---

**The New Project — NEXRAD Beam Geometry & Precipitation Coverage**

The question that drove this one: when it rains in south-central Pennsylvania, how much of that rainfall does NEXRAD radar actually see? The geometry alone is striking, the 0.5° beam from KCCX clears 8,000 to 9,000 feet above ground level by the time it reaches the Harrisburg corridor, sitting well above the cloud base during the shallow stratiform rain, drizzle, and cold air damming events that define our winter and early spring precipitation climatology. To answer this properly I pulled three months of hourly ASOS data from ten south-central PA stations, paired each precipitation hour with rawinsonde thermodynamics from IEM, and computed precise beam heights using the standard 4/3 Earth-radius WSR-88D formula for all four radars covering us, KCCX, KLWX, KDIX, and KBGM, selecting the best radar per station by actual geometry rather than assumed proximity. Along the way I found a critical data quality issue that affects anyone using IEM's ASOS archive: the p01i field is a running cumulative total since the last routine observation, not a per-period amount. Naive summation of sub-hourly SPECI observations inflates event totals by 1.5 to 2.5 times. Every precipitation number in this project uses the corrected method.

The findings are instructive but also honest about the limits of what surface observations alone can tell us. For the Harrisburg corridor stations the beam is provably below the cloud base, sampling clear air, during a meaningful fraction of rainy hours. For the majority of precipitation hours the beam is at or above the cloud base, but without cloud-top data we can't say whether it's sampling the precipitating layer or overshooting it entirely. What the rawinsonde thermodynamics add is character, the February 20th CAD event shows the freezing level within 300 feet of the beam height, textbook conditions for bright band contamination. January 25th shows the opposite: deep warm frontal overrunning with 105-knot bulk shear and the beam solidly inside a saturated column, exactly when radar performs well. The five storm deep dives each pull hourly RAP BUFKIT soundings for all ten stations, compute hodographs, storm tilt, raindrop trajectory, dry air intrusion, and wet-bulb zero, and render a west-to-east atmospheric cross-section showing where the beam intersects the thermodynamic structure of the storm. Full site with all interactive tools and downloadable data here: https://jns182wx.github.io/radar_site/

---

**Feedback, Corrections, and What's Next**

If you spot an error in the beam geometry, a station assignment that looks wrong, a precipitation total that doesn't match your records, or a methodology choice you'd push back on, please say so. Same goes for the earlier projects. Local knowledge improves local science and if you've been observing in this part of PA for any length of time your instincts about what the data should look like are worth hearing. If you have ideas for sections to add to any of these , additional storm events, verification against CoCoRaHS or COOP records, cross-sections to other radar sites, those conversations are welcome too.

The next project is going to need community input to be worthwhile so I want to put it out there now. I just got my **Ecowitt GW90 "Fatboy"** up and running and in that spirit of personal weather stations, the next deep dive is going to look at the PWS landscape across south-central PA: station distribution, hardware and software variety, network density, and most importantly bias estimation and quality weighting against official observations. The core idea is to take any location, wherever you live or work, drop a 5, 10, 15, and 20km radius around your coordinates, and map every PWS, ASOS, CoCoRaHS, COOP, and DCP station in each ring with historical bias estimates where the record supports them. Think miniaturized personal MADIS for your specific spot. Long term the goal is to integrate that localized ground truth with NBM (which is taking over NWS short-range forecasting) and MRMS (radar-derived QPE) to arrive at a reliable blended daily ground truth that's actually calibrated to where you are rather than the nearest official station. This requires a significant amount of manual data collection to do right, so I want to direct the effort toward people for whom it will be genuinely useful.

**If you want to be part of this, respond here or DM me with your town name or coordinates.** At minimum you'll get a full report on your local station landscape with whatever bias estimates the historical record supports, within the next month. And if you have ideas for other locally-rooted projects , anything about the weather in your corner of central PA that nobody seems to have a good quantitative answer for, I'd genuinely love to hear them.

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[Jns2183]

Here's the addition to drop into the message board post, after the site link and before the feedback section:

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**Lowest Radar Beam by County — South-Central PA Reference**

For those who want to know what's actually looking at their county, here are the lowest 0.5° beam heights for the counties covered by this study, sorted alphabetically. Listed as best radar and beam height, with the runner-up in parentheses:

**Adams** — KLWX: 4,680 ft MSL (KCCX: 9,241 ft)
**Berks** — KDIX: 7,642 ft MSL (KCCX: 10,418 ft)
**Cumberland** — KCCX: 7,235 ft MSL (KLWX: 7,377 ft)
**Dauphin** — KCCX: 8,029 ft MSL (KLWX: 10,267 ft)
**Franklin** — KLWX: 4,902 ft MSL (KCCX: 7,605 ft)
**Lancaster** — KDIX: 9,420 ft MSL (KDOX: 8,523 ft)
**Lebanon** — KCCX: 10,155 ft MSL (KDIX: 10,763 ft)
**Perry** — KCCX: 5,498 ft MSL (KLWX: 8,789 ft)
**Schuylkill** — KDIX: 10,008 ft MSL (KCCX: 10,418 ft)
**York** — KLWX: 5,874 ft MSL (KDOX: 9,530 ft)

A few things worth noting on these numbers. First, these are county-wide averages computed from five representative coordinate points distributed across each county they represent the typical beam height across the bulk of the county's land area, not any specific location within it. This matters especially in south-central PA where the terrain is anything but uniform and several counties are genuinely split between radar coverage zones. Adams, Cumberland, and Lancaster in particular have portions of their land area where a different radar may actually be lower than the county average suggests in some cases up to three different radar sites each hold the lowest beam advantage over some piece of a single county depending on which direction you're standing in it.

Second, and this trips people up: these heights are above mean sea level, not above your head. To get the actual distance between you and the beam you need to subtract your own elevation. If you're at 500 feet in the Cumberland Valley and the KCCX 0.5° beam shows 7,235 ft MSL over Cumberland County, the beam is roughly 6,735 feet above you — not 7,235. In the ridge-and-valley terrain to the north and west where elevations run 1,200 to 1,600 feet, that same beam is considerably closer to the surface than the MSL number implies. It's the AGL figure that tells you whether the beam is actually seeing your weather.

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