Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Blizzard of 93]

Happy Easter!

As a long time pro Met says every day, “Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got”!

[canderson]

MDT set a record high Saturday (83)

[mahantango#1]

Pennsylvanians really only have two modes, and neither of them is “this weather is nice.” We are either standing in 19-degree wind saying, “I can’t take this cold anymore,” or standing in 82 degrees with 40% humidity saying, “This is disgusting.” There is no middle ground. A 64-degree sunny day lasts about eleven minutes here before somebody says it’s either “still a little chilly in the shade” or “getting a little muggy.” We spend all winter begging for summer, all summer begging for fall, all fall pretending we’re not about to complain about winter again, and then the second it hits 50 in March, somebody’s in cargo shorts at Sheetz acting like we made it.

[mahantango#1]

.45 rain from this mornings event. I wasn't expecting that much, I thought maybe I'd get 2 tenths. But it is needed as we enter the growing season.

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Pennsylvanians really only have two modes, and neither of them is “this weather is nice.” We are either standing in 19-degree wind saying, “I can’t take this cold anymore,” or standing in 82 degrees with 40% humidity saying, “This is disgusting.” There is no middle ground. A 64-degree sunny day lasts about eleven minutes here before somebody says it’s either “still a little chilly in the shade” or “getting a little muggy.” We spend all winter begging for summer, all summer begging for fall, all fall pretending we’re not about to complain about winter again, and then the second it hits 50 in March, somebody’s in cargo shorts at Sheetz acting like we made it.

I just had  a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around  0℉ and summer days close to the century mark.  . 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm currently having a discussion with the same voices about a winter grade. Dick and I personally think that it deserves a higher grade then the C I'll be giving it, but It's 5 against 2, and I can't take the screaming anymore.  

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I just had  a lengthy discussion with the voices in my head about this. We completely agree , but only because people are weird. A normal person likes their winter days around  0℉ and summer days close to the century mark.  . 

Honestly, I'd be fine with 50 in the winter and 85 in the summer.

[Yardstickgozinya]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I really can't wait for backdoor cold front season to end. I went out for our coffee and breakfast sandwiches, and the dark, cloudy, murky, foggy, cold and damp look and feel made me instantly depressed.

 

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying.  In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Finished with .60" of welcomed rainfall. 

I hope everyone is enjoying your Easter Sunday.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying.  In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone. 

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

[canderson]

Never fails. Forecast winds for 22 mph - blowing 34 mph 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

Totally worth it!

[Yardstickgozinya]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category.

 

A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event?

 

This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 

 

1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 

2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 

3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 

4 Drought for Europe 

5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal.  

6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter,

7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest.

8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

I always appreciate what Dt has to say, but im not exactly feeling this one. It seems like he's only included worst case scenarios. What if it's a meduki or central based moderate /strong among many other questions. A lot of possibilities he didn't include while making uncertainties seem certain.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He forgot one…

This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter.
Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

Not trying to be a jerk here.but he forgot a lot. That said, i'm sure as we get closer, Dt will be quite informative. 

[canderson]

It’s. So. Windy. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I just got woken up to what sounded like my roof about to get yanked off my house. The wind almost never wakes me up.That had to be one hell of a gust. 

[pawatch]

37 degrees this morning, fired my coal stove back up yesterday for probably a few days.

.28” of rain yesterday and highest wind gust 37mph.

[ChescoWx]

Some unseasonably cold temperatures through mid-week including a hard freeze tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40's which is a solid 10 degrees below normal for the date. We slowly modify to slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 60's by the weekend. Looking ahead to next week we should see a big warmup well into the 70's before another cool down back to below normal temperatures by late next week. Overall, a dry pattern throughout the period.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 38 with .42" of rain.  Mondays, they are the worst.

[Summit Snow]

So there is this from BGM...

Tonight

A chance of rain and snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow showers between 1am and 2am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

[Jns2183]

It’s. So. Windy. 

The Fatboy awakens!!! Plus a manual rain gauge. I maybe have the worst yard ever for a weather station. But she will do. Even with a garage blocking me to the north I still managed a 18.8mph gust last night

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[pawatch]

This is for Canderson…My sons house.

37 mph wind gusts  

[Jns2183]

Last year the single worst day for Storms were the ones that developed as a backdoor cold front came through the area. Storm motion was to the south west. It did a bunch of wind damage. Does anyone have the dates for the storm?

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