Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Everybody in this forum's compassionate person. Nobody wants to see anybody get hurt and not one single gripe. Orbit of excitement is going to change any of it g********

I came back and edited this because not everybody in this forum is compassionate towards life and property but I do believe  or sub is. 

[WmsptWx]

What is going on?

[Yardstickgozinya]

Hopefully nothing now. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Just observing where things we're heading.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Starting to come together, Pepper, starting to come together. The frontogenesis  starting at  6:41pm up until the last frame of the gif at 8:51 pm  was pretty fricking, incredible. I wanted to include the sandwich RGB loop, but the files are too large.  

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Sandwich RGB . Sorry, I had  to cut off the timestamp, keys and a lot of the edges to get the file small enough. I've also included a lightning map with the last hour of detected strikes. 

 

[MAG5035]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Thanks for this. Remarkable this occurred up here back then. Today? Much more likely with climate changes. 

The May 31st, 1985 tornado outbreak was more severe and remarkable than 1998 or any other more recent PA involved outbreak by a pretty sizeable margin. That outbreak spun up 43 tornadoes and killed 89 people (1000 injured) in PA, NY, OH and Ontario (65 alone in PA), produced PA’s only ever EF5 tornado (Wheatland), and also produced what I’m pretty sure was one of the widest tornadoes ever recorded in the US at the time (Moshannon State Forest). 

Couple screen grabs below but there’s some really informative links about this outbreak 

CTP’s 35th anniversary link- https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_may311985

New interactive link they made for the 40th anniversary last year collaborated with NWS Pittsburgh, State College, Buffalo, and Cleveland  https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/e8c12f670d5648a9b64877f42660eeeb

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

12:30pm SPC update.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

Starting to see initiation of a fleet of cells out ahead of the front in Alabama at 2:00AM probably not good situation. 

[Jns2183]

The May 31st, 1985 tornado outbreak was more severe and remarkable than 1998 or any other more recent PA involved outbreak by a pretty sizeable margin. That outbreak spun up 43 tornadoes and killed 89 people (1000 injured) in PA, NY, OH and Ontario (65 alone in PA), produced PA’s only ever EF5 tornado (Wheatland), and also produced what I’m pretty sure was one of the widest tornadoes ever recorded in the US at the time (Moshannon State Forest). 
Couple screen grabs below but there’s some really informative links about this outbreak 
CTP’s 35th anniversary link- https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_may311985
New interactive link they made for the 40th anniversary last year collaborated with NWS Pittsburgh, State College, Buffalo, and Cleveland  https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/e8c12f670d5648a9b64877f42660eeeb
 


 

The old two mile wide long track ef4 going over the absolute most mountainous terrain in Pennsylvania like it was Alabama. If you ever get a chance to go look at some of the re-analysis anamoly for that day in a zoomed in fashion. The amount of absolute bonger values you get actually would almost make that tornado feel inevitable. It's that storm and the ef3 plus damage they found on mountains out west above 10000 feet that makes me laugh when people say they're safe because of the terrain they're in.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[MAG5035]

Still trying to gauge the degree of which the severe potential gets realized tomorrow. High res guidance seems to be tightening the window when the best shear coincides with the surge of some modest CAPE into the Sus Valley, more in the late morning/early afternoon. HRRR looked like it was toying around with some discrete and/or quasi linear convection during that timeframe, while the 3k NAM doesn’t have much at all until the frontal passage. FROPA looked slated for roughly the 4-8pm timeframe west to east in C-PA. Discrete development out ahead depends on if there’s any kind of ample daytime heating via some breaks in the clouds, something I’m not quite sure happens in earnest in PA. Line with the FROPA will be more purely dynamics driven, but we’ll have to see how well it gets organized 

Also lost in all the attention to the severe is energy rounding the base of the trough during tomorrow generating a secondary wave of heavier precip riding up behind the front. So suddenly it looks quite snowy in at least the western half of PA early to mid Mon evening. This could drive a changeover to a period of snow all the way into the Sus Valley. Given the broad model support I’d be surprised if CTP didn’t at least headline the Laurels and north central Alleghenies for advisories. There’s support for the I-99 corridor as well. That will also be interesting to watch evolve tomorrow in addition to the severe threat. 

GFS vs Euro

3k NAM vs RGEM

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

The old two mile wide long track ef4 going over the absolute most mountainous terrain in Pennsylvania like it was Alabama. If you ever get a chance to go look at some of the re-analysis anamoly for that day in a zoomed in fashion. The amount of absolute bonger values you get actually would almost make that tornado feel inevitable. It's that storm and the ef3 plus damage they found on mountains out west above 10000 feet that makes me laugh when people say they're safe because of the terrain they're in.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

I  hiked one of tornado trails as a kid with my older sister. I don't exactly remember the year but she will. I believe it was 88 or 89 and the trail was still very obvious. I have pictures of the trails and myself in front of the plaques there.  I will eventually scan and post. I initially stated that it was the Albion tornado trail but that is not correct.I do know it was near the town of Albion and was a destination to hike the trails. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

At 4:27am there's no shortage of blips going up in the warm sector off to our south and west They'll definitely be coming into our vicinity this morning and beyond if they don't wane. Whether or not they'll help to stabilize or become something that we don't want to see is something i'll let up the professionals on this day. Things pobably needs to play out a little longer and the sun needs to come up before anyone really knows anyway.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Highlight Changed Discussion --

049
FXUS61 KCTP 160905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
505 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Wind Advisories extended across northern PA and issued east of
  US-15 to account for gusty pre-frontal winds this afternoon.
* Added details about timing of multiple rounds of
  showers/storms this afternoon.
* Issued Winter Weather Advisory for Laurels & Northwest
  Mountains tonight for a thump of snow behind the cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold
frontal passage.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced
Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

3) Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump
of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather
hangs around through midweek.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of
a cold frontal passage.

An impressive wind field continues to overspread Pennsylvania
this morning and gusty south winds are expected throughout the
day. Locations to the north and west of any steep terrain will
continue to experience the strongest wind gusts during the day
today, with sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts 30 to 45
mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern
tier through early this afternoon, and then a Wind Advisory will
go into effect for locations east of US-15 this afternoon
through the evening. Note that gusty winds are expected across
the entire area today and any showers or storms will tap into a
very strong wind field aloft, bringing locally enhanced wind
gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening,
with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center has continued with their Enhanced
Risk (Level 3 out of 5) today. There appear to be two distinct
rounds of rain that will cross the region. The first will be a
pre-frontal line of storms that are currently crossing eastern
Ohio and will get into our western counties (Warren/Somerset)
between 9 and 10AM. As this line moves across the Commonwealth,
it will encounter increasing amounts of instability
(500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE) and intensify. The line is not
currently producing any lightning, but lighting activity should
commence by late this morning as it crosses the I-99 corridor.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this line of
storms, but a favorable low level wind profile with ~200 m2/s2
of 0-3km SRH will be sufficient for tornadoes along any portions
of the line that develop kinks or discrete elements with
embedded supercells.

The second round of concern is when the surface cold front
crosses the region. Although most of the instability will be
absorbed by the first batch of storms, a potent isallobaric
pressure fall/rise couplet will provide plenty of lift to
produce a narrow cold frontal rainband. With 50+ kt winds just
above the surface, it won`t take much to mix down strong to
damaging winds. This line of rain and winds likely won`t have
any lightning with it, but the wind will pack a punch as cold
air pours in behind it. The cold front and associated damaging
wind threat will clear our eastern counties by 10 or 11PM.

QPF will be 1 to 1.5" for locations east of the I-99/US-15
corridor, and isolated 2" amounts are possible at higher
elevations in Schuylkill and Sullivan County. Antecedent dry
conditions should preclude any major flooding concerns, but
ponding on roadways is a real possibility. If you have outdoor
plans on Monday afternoon and evening, be sure to monitor the
weather and consider changing your plans.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening
with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the
chilly weather hangs around through midweek.

This evening, once the surface cold front pushes through,
colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier
precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable
upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around
moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the
potential for a quick 1-4" of snow in western portions of the
state. HREF probabilities of 1" per hour snowfall rates are
impressive and a several hour period of thumping snow are
possible in the Laurels and northwest mountains. The latest WPC
Winter Storm Outlook, which depicts probabilities of Winter
Storm Warning level snowfall amounts, paints 30-50%
probabilities from Somerset north to Warren/McKean/Potter
County with a few pixels over 50% in McKean County. Although
Warning level amounts are unlikely, the combination of favorable
lift, heavy snow rates, and onset after sunset lead to
confidence in at least Advisory level amounts/impacts. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect from 21Z/5PM today through 06Z/2AM
Tuesday for the northwest counties. The Advisory will continue
through Tuesday afternoon (in collaboration with PBZ and LWX)
in Cambria and Somerset County for lingering upslope snow
showers.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ017-018-024-
033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ024-033.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for

[WmsptWx]

Happy Death Day to all who celebrate 

 

[mahantango#1]

Live NWS update from State College NWS https://www.facebook.com/reel/1253372836765634

[pawatch]

53 degrees and drizzle. Picked .08” of rain overnight.

NWS cut down on my rain totals overnight. Went from 1,55” to 1.11” today.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Stay safe today everyone!

Thanks to everyone for the great posts with the detailed severe potential information. Please keep them coming today as it approaches.

[Itstrainingtime]

43 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Happy Death Day to all who celebrate 

 

I've already been approached in the office this morning for my thoughts. I politely declined. One team member spoke up and said that "the weather people they follow on Facebook said that some of us aren't going to make it through the day."

I replied "well, go with that I guess." 

[mahantango#1]

Great discussion from Brett Thackara https://www.facebook.com/abc27news/videos/909059098554635/

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've already been approached in the office this morning for my thoughts. I politely declined. One team member spoke up and said that "the weather people they follow on Facebook said that some of us aren't going to make it through the day."

I replied "well, go with that I guess." 

Jesus 

[anotherman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've already been approached in the office this morning for my thoughts. I politely declined. One team member spoke up and said that "the weather people they follow on Facebook said that some of us aren't going to make it through the day."

I replied "well, go with that I guess." 

S&S is a problem.  And people can't sift through their BS like we can.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 49 with .09” of rainfall. Good morning to all, on what should be a very busy weather day. Some people in here may see some of their heaviest snowfall rates of the season later tonight, albeit brief. Beginning to think things won’t be too too dramatic up this way with regard to severe potential but we’ll see what mother nature stirs up. Timing of the main line looks to be pretty late in the day for those of us here in the east, not sure how much pops off out ahead of that, as there seems to be some conflicting forecasts there. In any case, batten down the hatches!

[mahantango#1]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've already been approached in the office this morning for my thoughts. I politely declined. One team member spoke up and said that "the weather people they follow on Facebook said that some of us aren't going to make it through the day."

I replied "well, go with that I guess." 

You should have did a powerpoint presentation on the weather threats were facing today and offered counseling to those individuals.

[Yardstickgozinya]

It's still early in the day, but meso scale data has been updated and at this juncture we are missing 2 of the most important parameters for tornadoes, surface cape and surface velocity (top graphic) are basically not existing at this point. There is a slight overlap in the chesapeake, but a surface cape of 25 and a surface velocity 2  is most likely not producing a tornado. There's also, some areas of extra overlaps  around the Hagerstown area with some other meso scale parameters ,but nothing exceptional with this point. I'll be watching the surface all day as long as i'm not napping.  We do have rising downdraft cape (bottom graphic) parameters so anyone who gets under convection or , even heavy rain might be in for a rough time. I'm sure no one needs any reminders, but I'm an idiot not a met., so  make sure you're listening to your local met and not an idiot. 

[Itstrainingtime]

31 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Great discussion from Brett Thackara https://www.facebook.com/abc27news/videos/909059098554635/

Sounds like the early part of the afternoon offers the best chance for a Tornado and then the evening line is likely to be focused on straight line winds. 

Sort of surprised to see that the actual front that would contain damaging wind gusts doesn't come through here until after 8pm. This seems a good bit later than I was hearing yesterday. 

[mahantango#1]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sounds like the early part of the afternoon offers the best chance for a Tornado and then the evening line is likely to be focused on straight line winds. 

Sort of surprised to see that the actual front that would contain damaging wind gusts doesn't come through here until after 8pm. This seems a good bit later than I was hearing yesterday. 

Yes it sounds much later than yesterday. But this afternoon sounds like we have to be on the lookout for severe weather.

[Yardstickgozinya]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sounds like the early part of the afternoon offers the best chance for a Tornado and then the evening line is likely to be focused on straight line winds. 

Sort of surprised to see that the actual front that would contain damaging wind gusts doesn't come through here until after 8pm. This seems a good bit later than I was hearing yesterday. 

Early frontogenesis everything looked as expected, but  the northern end of the front started waning much earlier, last night then everything showed. As fronts wayne they slow down so maybe that's the culprit.