SACRUS Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 43 / 40 clouds light rain / showers today. Heavier rain >0.50-10 Thursday, with clouds lingering Friday and Saturday. Sunday - Wed looks like the drier / much warmer stretch with some sun. >60 Sunday > 70 in the warmest spots Mon, Tue/Wed - could areas sw get to 80?. Beyond there cooler near normal and then below normal arriving by mid month into the week of St Pattys Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (1974) NYC: 70 (1974) LGA: 69 (1946) JFK: 59 (1965) Lows: EWR: 6 (1943) NYC: 6 (1872) LGA: 7 (1943) JFK: 12 (1950) Historical: 1717: New England's "Great Snow." occurred between 2/27 and 3/7. Four storms dumped 36 inches of snow at Boston, MA and as much as 4 feet further north. Drifts up to 25 feet were reported near Dorchester, MA. Travel was virtually impossible for nearly 3 weeks. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1780: Because of the very cold winter of 1779 - 1780 the port of Philadelphia was ice locked from December 21, 1779 until March 4, 1780. (p.30 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1873: The inauguration of Ulysses S. Grant remains Washington, DC’s, record cold March day. The low was 4 degrees; by noon (with sunshine) the temperature was 16 degrees (wind chills to -30 degrees). 40 mph winds made his inaugural address inaudible to most on the platform with him. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) The minimum temperature for the date is 4 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1909 - Though fair weather was forecast, President Taft was inaugurated amidst a furious storm. About ten inches of wet snow disrupted travel and communications. The storm drew much criticism against the U.S. Weather Bureau. (David Ludlum) 1951: In Riverside, CA it was 28°, their lowest temperature on record for March. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1953 - Snow was reported on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. (The Weather Channel) 1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. 1966 - A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel) 1971: A potent storm system blasted the northeastern U.S. on March 3-5th, 1971. The barometric pressure dropped to 28.36 inches at Worcester, MA, for the lowest pressure recorded at that location. 1983: Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark. 1983: The maximum temperature for the date is 82 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1987 - Rain and high winds prevailed in the northwestern U.S. A wind gust to 69 mph at Klamath Falls OR was their highest in 25 years, and winds at the Ashland Ranger Station in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California reached 85 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Snow and freezing rain made travel hazardous in Ohio and Indiana. A six car pile-up resulted near Columbus OH, with seven injuries reported. Up to two inches of ice glazed central Indiana. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley. A strong (F-3) tornado injured five persons near Brownsville MS, and killed seven cows and two hogs in one pasture. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 90 mph at Canton MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A Pacific cold front working its way across the western U.S. produced heavy snow over parts of Idaho, Nevada and Utah. Up to eleven inches of snow blanketed the valleys of northwest Utah, while 12 to 25 inches fell across the mountains of northern Utah. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the valleys of east central Nevada, while more than a foot of snow was reported in the high elevations. In Idaho, 6 to 8 inches of snow was reported around Aberdeen and American Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - An F0 tornado 2 miles north of Muldrow breaks a record stretch of days without a reported tornado, 292 days. 2008 - Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Gefs is 3 days later. Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. The NAO/AO will be the key whether we get anything-we almost have to have those in late winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. Or trough positioned correctly with a direct tap to cold air (-WPO, -EPO). Not talking KU just accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The NAO/AO will be the key whether we get anything-we almost have to have those in late winter That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. oh look! 41 degrees and rain potential! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Or trough positioned correctly with a direct tap to cold air (-WPO, -EPO). Not talking KU just accumulating snow. That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska) All that does it just make it colder than we want it to be heading into spring...hard pass on that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: All that does it just make it colder than we want it to be heading into spring...hard pass on that. EURO AIFS has a pretty cold look roughly 3/16 - 3/22 with 850's 15-22 BN Ohio Valley to MA/NE. After the coming warmth this will feel particularly unwelcome. Cold the second half of March is unlikely to undo the warmth of the first half so not expecting March to finish below normal. As for snowfall, the chances are low but not zero. As others have said not a KU looking pattern but some accumulating snow especially interior not out of the question second half of the month but who really wants it at that point anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! Agree. Big potential but time is running out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Alot of cold air coming down. I think we have a good chance at some snow. AI euro in the long range has some chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream and over the top to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look -AO for sure, NAO I'm not as concerned about. What would be helpful is a list of all 4"+ NYC March-April storms and which teleconnections were present to get a better idea of what you'd need for late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro has a huge cutter mid March which brings in cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 49F as I cross the GWB….feels awesome out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Alot of cold air coming down. I think we have a good chance at some snow. AI euro in the long range has some chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has a huge cutter mid March which brings in cold air. Euro sucks and i'll never pay attention to this model anymore, i'll look at GFS and Euro AI! way better synoptics on those two models than regular Euro! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago March 2004, the season with two March storms, both in mid-March, after no snowstorms in February. Check the synoptics out.http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Euro sucks and i'll never pay attention to this model anymore, i'll look at GFS and Euro AI! way better synoptics on those two models than regular Euro! Not sure I would look at ANY OP model at hour 318 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago clouds holding to most the area bu NNJ lucking out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: clouds holding to most the area bu NNJ lucking out Mostly sunny and 49 here with melt ongoing. Can now see grass across east facing backyard for the first time in better than 2 months. Plowed mounds slow to go but actual snow cover is down to not more than 50% coverage with an average depth of 2" and dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, MANDA said: Mostly sunny and 49 here with melt ongoing. Can now see grass across east facing backyard for the first time in better than 2 months. Plowed mounds slow to go but actual snow cover is down to not more than 50% coverage with an average depth of 2" and dwindling. The sun actually feels warm in the car again. First time since early November. 51 degrees and sunny here. Snow and ice melt galore, even in the shade. I feel like doing an Irish square dance! Spring is coming on fast! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 47 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: 360 hours? Fun to look at, but I wouldn't put any money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season How can you get a cutter if the trough is far enough east? Also if the flow is fast enough a storm won't be able to amplify enough to cut. We have had MANY snow events without blocking. 2013/2014 is a great example. Not sure why it has to be KU or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 55 here today with clear skies...alot of melting...tomorrow's 1.50 inches of rain will take care of alot of the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How can you get a cutter if the trough is far enough east? Also if the flow is fast enough a storm won't be able to amplify enough to cut. We have had MANY snow events without blocking. 2013/2014 is a great example. Not sure why it has to be KU or nothing I think he means the AO and NAO are more important this time of year vs earlier in the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look You've been horribly wrong since November. So now I actually like the chances of it happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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