snowman19 Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Gefs is 3 days later. Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. The NAO/AO will be the key whether we get anything-we almost have to have those in late winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. Or trough positioned correctly with a direct tap to cold air (-WPO, -EPO). Not talking KU just accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The NAO/AO will be the key whether we get anything-we almost have to have those in late winter That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those…. oh look! 41 degrees and rain potential! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Or trough positioned correctly with a direct tap to cold air (-WPO, -EPO). Not talking KU just accumulating snow. That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That modeled look is definitely -WPO but not -EPO (ridge over Alaska) All that does it just make it colder than we want it to be heading into spring...hard pass on that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: All that does it just make it colder than we want it to be heading into spring...hard pass on that. EURO AIFS has a pretty cold look roughly 3/16 - 3/22 with 850's 15-22 BN Ohio Valley to MA/NE. After the coming warmth this will feel particularly unwelcome. Cold the second half of March is unlikely to undo the warmth of the first half so not expecting March to finish below normal. As for snowfall, the chances are low but not zero. As others have said not a KU looking pattern but some accumulating snow especially interior not out of the question second half of the month but who really wants it at that point anyway. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! Agree. Big potential but time is running out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm! There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Alot of cold air coming down. I think we have a good chance at some snow. AI euro in the long range has some chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream and over the top to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look -AO for sure, NAO I'm not as concerned about. What would be helpful is a list of all 4"+ NYC March-April storms and which teleconnections were present to get a better idea of what you'd need for late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Euro has a huge cutter mid March which brings in cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 49F as I cross the GWB….feels awesome out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Alot of cold air coming down. I think we have a good chance at some snow. AI euro in the long range has some chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has a huge cutter mid March which brings in cold air. Euro sucks and i'll never pay attention to this model anymore, i'll look at GFS and Euro AI! way better synoptics on those two models than regular Euro! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Euro sucks and i'll never pay attention to this model anymore, i'll look at GFS and Euro AI! way better synoptics on those two models than regular Euro! Not sure I would look at ANY OP model at hour 318 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 clouds holding to most the area bu NNJ lucking out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: clouds holding to most the area bu NNJ lucking out Mostly sunny and 49 here with melt ongoing. Can now see grass across east facing backyard for the first time in better than 2 months. Plowed mounds slow to go but actual snow cover is down to not more than 50% coverage with an average depth of 2" and dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 9 minutes ago, MANDA said: Mostly sunny and 49 here with melt ongoing. Can now see grass across east facing backyard for the first time in better than 2 months. Plowed mounds slow to go but actual snow cover is down to not more than 50% coverage with an average depth of 2" and dwindling. The sun actually feels warm in the car again. First time since early November. 51 degrees and sunny here. Snow and ice melt galore, even in the shade. I feel like doing an Irish square dance! Spring is coming on fast! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 47 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: 360 hours? Fun to look at, but I wouldn't put any money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season How can you get a cutter if the trough is far enough east? Also if the flow is fast enough a storm won't be able to amplify enough to cut. We have had MANY snow events without blocking. 2013/2014 is a great example. Not sure why it has to be KU or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 55 here today with clear skies...alot of melting...tomorrow's 1.50 inches of rain will take care of alot of the rest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How can you get a cutter if the trough is far enough east? Also if the flow is fast enough a storm won't be able to amplify enough to cut. We have had MANY snow events without blocking. 2013/2014 is a great example. Not sure why it has to be KU or nothing I think he means the AO and NAO are more important this time of year vs earlier in the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you. It’s all -WPO driven cold….with no mechanism downstream (Atlantic) and over the top (Arctic) to stop cutters and runners, that’s why you need -NAO/-AO blocking…to force secondary, coastal redevelopment. Color me very skeptical of some mid-late March I-95 corridor snow blitz with that look You've been horribly wrong since November. So now I actually like the chances of it happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I think he means the AO and NAO are more important this time of year vs earlier in the season Not sure that is the case. Why wouldn't a deep east based trough work the same as January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Really impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 30 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Really impressive. The cold was relentless...there was a 10 day break in early Jan but that was it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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