2/26 - Follow-up Hopium Battlezone Storm

[baltosquid]

Nada from the RGEM and ICON. Hires window mesos technically had some digital blue but essentially a miss, not that they are of much value. Onto the GFS to see if it gives up on this POS

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Nada from the RGEM and ICON. Hires window mesos technically had some digital blue but essentially a miss, not that they are of much value. Onto the GFS to see if it gives up on this POS

Most important run of the GFS...in the history of this thread. 

[stormtracker]

Bout time to bail on this one

[clskinsfan]

NVM

[stormtracker]

GFS just won't give up

[baltosquid]

Who knows, maybe it’s on a heater and it’s amp o’clock in the atmosphere

[North Balti Zen]

Every single run of the GFS for about a week now has been the "I'm not fucking going, they are gonna have to drag me out of here" DiCaprio scene in Wolf of Wall Street for our area. 

[stormtracker]

Differences between GFS and every thing else is reminding me of last week's mess.   GFS is like a dog with a bone...it's not letting go of the wintry potential in THIRTY HOURS vs zero/south with every other piece of guidance.

[stormtracker]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Every single run of the GFS for about a week now has been the "I'm not fucking going, they are gonna have to drag me out of here" DiCaprio scene in Wolf of Wall Street for our area. 

Yeah, it's interesting.   This close in and it hasn't blinked.   Rerun of last week.   I don't think it's going to happen, but I no longer laugh at the GFS when it gets like this.

[TSSN+]

Gfs be like 

https://youtu.be/nvlTJrNJ5lA

 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS just won't give up

i mean the storm is tomorrow. Is there one model in its camp lol?

[baltosquid]

Even with the pretty much ceiling outcome the GFS has, surface temps are above freezing the whole time. Probably another accumulation failure in the metros and an inch or two “jackpot” somewhere. Granted, maybe if the NAM 3k controlled the temps with the GFS look, maybe it would spit out something more favorable, idk.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i mean the storm is tomorrow. Is there one model in its camp lol?

Was there before that last storm before they all moved toward it?

[baltosquid]

AIGFS did come north but temps are bad.

[mitchnick]

AiGfs barely clips MD/DCA and south compared to Gfs. Hardly any qpf north of PA/MD border.

[baltosquid]

Since it is next, figured I would look at the UKMET trends leading in. FWIW it is trending more amped and a touch slower. It brought the precip a good jog north at 06z responding to this change. Another nudge like that and we probably get more precip at 12z. But I am not expecting snow even with an amped nudge; UKMET seems to run pretty warm.

[RDM]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Differences between GFS and every thing else is reminding me of last week's mess.   GFS is like a dog with a bone...it's not letting go of the wintry potential in THIRTY HOURS vs zero/south with every other piece of guidance.

Great to have you back doing PBP - much appreciated.  

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean the storm is tomorrow. Is there one model in its camp lol?

It is either going to score a coup or be completely embarrassed. Would love to see it win back to back though.

[baltosquid]

UKMET more amped early on

[baltosquid]

But then it looks about the same two frames later. Don’t think it will come north much

[baltosquid]

Touch more amped in the end and precip a tick north but still mostly dry for us and no snow.

[baltosquid]

Not high utility so close but the 12z GEFS has no complaints with its operational.

 

edit: I will add that the probability for snowfall greater than 1 inch 10:1 is 50-60%. If there is a red flag, the fact that we’re only at slightly better than a coin flip for that one day out would probably be it. 1 inch 10:1 will certainly not result in anything more than a car topper in reality given the temps, if that, so 40-50% shot to fall below that is essentially saying a 40-50% chance of snow tv or non event.

[North Balti Zen]

Snow TV would be fun, frankly - so rooting for the gfs just for that possibility 

[baltosquid]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Snow TV would be fun, frankly - so rooting for the gfs just for that possibility 

Yeah snow tv during the day for several hours, maybe with some heavier bands in there, when the hypothetical event was never big is a win in my book

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Snow TV would be fun, frankly - so rooting for the gfs just for that possibility 

Snow is always the answer.