February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Duca892]

Not going to shock me if precautionary winter storm watches are put up this afternoon 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So euro has an inch in some areas the gfs has 30. Ok.

[Duca892]

Feel like the AIGFS might be your best case middle ground with 6-10in down near Philly and more South/East

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

GFS:

 

[Voyager]

20 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z GFS not backing down, this is really incredible. Money shot for Philly

 

19 minutes ago, Newman said:

CCB right on top of Philly omg!

It's crazy how the NAM is basically a shutout out for almost all of Eastern PA, including Philly, and the GFS nukes a good portion of the same location. How can both of the US models have an almost 180° opposite solution?

[Ralph Wiggum]

So euro-nam rule vs the gfs? 

Are we still following Hurricane Schwartz' advice.and siding with the superior Euro and just tossing the GFS?

[Newman]

GEFS bump NW as expected

[Newman]

7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It's crazy how the NAM is basically a shutout out for almost all of Eastern PA, including Philly, and the GFS nukes a good portion of the same location. How can both of the US models have an almost 180° opposite solution?

The NAM tucks the low but closes it off/occludes it much further south along the Virginia coast. Probably just NAM doing NAM things

[Duca892]

NOT saying it will happen but the GFS is reminding me of the NAM for Jan 2016 when it showed a bomb storm run after run and every model gradually trended towards it in the last 48hrs

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

GEFS bump NW as expected

Looks a tick east aside from 1 or 2 slp centers that held no?

[Heisy]

This is truly unbelievable

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks a tick east aside from 1 or 2 slp centers that held no?

Precip shield expanded NW interestingly enough. Yes im talking to myself. Dont judge me 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Heisy said:

This is truly unbelievable

I was wondering where tf you got to 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Precip shield expanded NW interestingly enough. Yes im talking to myself. Dont judge me 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Let's be real, this is only less than a 6 hour timing difference wrt the 2 shortwaves between being a GFS tucked bomb or a NAM March 2001 rug pull. 

I will forever have ptsd from that storm and I am getting similar vibes. I am strongly urging cautious optimism from everyone because 1) we still dont have unanimous agreement 2) if the euro isnt biting its probably right and 3) always go with the least snowiest model. 

Not trying to deb, but alot of us, especially me included, can let emotions take hold. GFS doubled down again but could it be completely wrong and the slp escape east? You better believe that scenario is possible. Ive seen the gfs hold until 12 hours prior before....it can be stubborn.

[Duca892]

I mean I’m just floored that it’s like 5 or 6 runs in a row that the GFS is straight up locked in. Again I haven’t seen a model do that as an outlier since the NAM with Jonas in Jan 2016. GFS will eventually come to its senses and at that point should be taken behind the woodshed, but holy crap is that fun to watch 

[Heisy]

Seeing the icon/nam/rgem have a cleaner phase at 6z is extremely encouraging for sure

[Heisy]

6z Ukie big time improvement as well

[Heisy]

6z Ukie big time improvement as well

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Seeing the icon/nam/rgem have a cleaner phase at 6z is extremely encouraging for sure

All 3 of those tighten the system and because of the cleaner phase keep the good qpf well south and east though. Not sure we want a clean phase unless it happens alot sooner and farther NW.

If you want the possible big dog then yes, full clean phase. If you want guaranteed low end SECS then roll the dice with more separation and the PVA precip followed by the ull/ivt stuff. 

What i dont like about the full clean phase is we increase the chances significantly for a rug pull last minute. Tho i suppose thats the chance we take when rooting for a big dog always.

[Birds~69]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS:

 

 

'The Waiting' (is the hardest part) by Petty is appropriate as well...

35F/Rain

 

[Newman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All 3 of those tighten the system and because of the cleaner phase keep the good qpf well south and east though. Not sure we want a clean phase unless it happens alot sooner and farther NW.

If you want the possible big dog then yes, full clean phase. If you want guaranteed low end SECS then roll the dice with more separation and the PVA precip followed by the ull/ivt stuff. 

What i dont like about the full clean phase is we increase the chances significantly for a rug pull last minute. Tho i suppose thats the chance we take when rooting for a big dog always.

The GFS feels like that very far western ensemble member that keeps giving you hope. Except this time, it hasn't budged while the eastern envelope has shifted closer towards it. We're narrowing the goal posts: the western post staying put and the eastern post shifting west. Usually we see a 50/50 compromise, maybe 40/60. This time maybe 25/75 or 20/80. It's just been unusual this go around seeing models move towards the GFS. Again, Delaware and coastal Jersey seem to be the place to be right now

[Duca892]

Just me here waiting like a kid on Christmas hoping the EURO goes full GFS

[BBasile]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm getting 3 feet of snow? 

If that verifies, I'm changing the GFS's name to "Tom Brady" and then finding a new hobby.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

I feel like if we follow the Euro-NAM least snowy thing we are setting up for a surprise.

 

Then I feel like if we go with the GFS we get the March 2001 rug pull.

 

I suppose ICON middle of the road is the way to go with del and NJ being the jack zone.

[anthonyweather]

Ensemble snows continue NW push


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This isnt one of those Miller storms with a wide swath of heavy snow. Rather this is a tight core of ccb making this a forecasting nightmare between a gfs solution and a nudge east and a bust. The margin for error is extremely small. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So euro has an inch in some areas the gfs has 30. Ok.

I see the gfs is picking up on the sleet and warm tounge again. 

[Duca892]

And all eyes turn towards 6z EURO. God speed all

[dseagull]

The consistency from run to run with the GFS is rare beyond words, especially at this lead time.  If it folds, it is seriously time to discuss discontinuing funding for the model and surrounding program.