Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[RedSky]

Can't wait for the regional totals breakdown from the NWS
 

[penndotguy]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

I've actually gotta agree with @LVLion77here. If we take a look at the NWS official forecast from yesterday morning, many many places busted significantly low on totals. I don't have their map right before the storm when they lowered totals, but I know even then they were too high in a lot of places west of 476.

Based on this map: 24" in Mount Pocono? Last I saw they had 4". 15" in Reading? More like 4". Fleetwood was under a warning for 7-14" and we got 5. ChescoWX was in the 18-24" contour and he got 9-10". Even 20" in Philly center city will be too high. Overall Jersey did well, and they nailed the local max along the Jersey coast.

None of this is to discredit the NWS of course, I'm not sure what else they could've done with the data on their hands yesterday morning. I know they'll go back and evaluate what went wrong and what they could've done better. I think there was obviously too much lean on the western NAM/HRRR/FV3 outliers. But the RGEM was ridiculously low on the far eastern side. If you're on this forum, you knew yesterday morning things were shifting back east and that totals would be significantly less so right then your expectations should've been with a modest plowable snow. If I'm the general public in Allentown and I looked at this map yesterday and planned for 15"? Well then yeah, I'd call it a bust. I think the NWS just went too high too soon and then played catch up last second.

Yeah I need a break from the weather after that disaster. From 10-20 morning then 8-16 and ended up with 3” whew

[Heisy]

Rgem vs its hires version. This was 6z look at differences over RI S MA. Think its bugged or something lol

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah I need a break from the weather after that disaster. From 10-20 morning then 8-16 and ended up with 3” whew

My condolences there sounds like March 2001 verified in Berks County 

[LVLion77]

I've actually gotta agree with [mention=9969]LVLion77[/mention]here. If we take a look at the NWS official forecast from yesterday morning, many many places busted significantly low on totals. I don't have their map right before the storm when they lowered totals, but I know even then they were too high in a lot of places west of 476.
Based on this map: 24" in Mount Pocono? Last I saw they had 4". 15" in Reading? More like 4". Fleetwood was under a warning for 7-14" and we got 5. ChescoWX was in the 18-24" contour and he got 9-10". Even 20" in Philly center city will be too high. Overall Jersey did well, and they nailed the local max along the Jersey coast.
None of this is to discredit the NWS of course, I'm not sure what else they could've done with the data on their hands yesterday morning. I know they'll go back and evaluate what went wrong and what they could've done better. I think there was obviously too much lean on the western NAM/HRRR/FV3 outliers. But the RGEM was ridiculously low on the far eastern side. If you're on this forum, you knew yesterday morning things were shifting back east and that totals would be significantly less so right then your expectations should've been with a modest plowable snow. If I'm the general public in Allentown and I looked at this map yesterday and planned for 15"? Well then yeah, I'd call it a bust. I think the NWS just went too high too soon and then played catch up last second.

Thank you. Yes, if you look at the geographical territory of the NWS office and compare versus the final forecast map you posted, a relatively small percentage of the area verified. I still believe at least 75% of the forecast area was significantly lower than predictions. Sometimes on forums like this, the what happened in my backyard mantra, clouds people’s assessment of forecast accuracy, both under and over.

[zenmsav6810]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

My condolences there sounds like March 2001 verified in Berks County 

Lol we're not that mad about... physically can't shovel right now.

[LVLion77]

And furthermore, I think AccuWeather handled the storm much better than NWS. And don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen it go the other way plenty of times as well. NWS stubbornly held onto bad predictions in a huge swath of this region when we amateurs could see it was never going to verify. Earlier in the event, you could see where the banding was setting up. I believe it was the 11 PM update last night that NWS posted an additional 4 to 12 inches for the Lehigh Valley, which was just pure bullheaded stubbornness.

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

And furthermore, I think AccuWeather handled the storm much better than NWS. And don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen it go the other way plenty of times as well. NWS stubbornly held onto bad predictions in a huge swath of this region when we amateurs could see it was never going to verify. Earlier in the event, you could see where the banding was setting up. I believe it was the 11 PM update last night that NWS posted an additional 4 to 12 inches for the Lehigh Valley, which was just pure bullheaded stubbornness.

Meh this storm was all over the map unpredictable nobody got it right. Didn't accuWeather forecast 8-12" for the low counties and Philly?

 

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Meh this storm was all over the map unpredictable nobody got it right. Didn't accuWeather forecast 8-12" for the low counties and Philly?

 

Yeah accuweather had me at 4-8” then upped it to 8-12 as I had 8” already. They were way too low for 95 to the coast.

[LVLion77]

Meh this storm was all over the map unpredictable nobody got it right. Didn't accuWeather forecast 8-12" for the low counties and Philly?
 

They did, but they got more right than wrong versus NWS.

[jimmosk]

2 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

They did, but they got more right than wrong versus NWS.

Did they get it right for more people, or for more acres? And which one is more important?

[RedSky]

DT was far too high for interior eastern PA with his forecast that looked  low before the storm on his last call, and far too low for NYC and New England

 

[LVLion77]

Did they get it right for more people, or for more acres? And which one is more important?

Weird question, but I would consider area to be the criteria for sure.

[Chief83]

Worcester, PA.  Ended up with approx. 12".  Accuweather was a little slow to get there, but with some adjustments their forecast of 10-14 was right on with my 12".  I watched that "death band" last night and it just struggled to move into Montgomery County from Bucks.  Not surprised western Chester and Berks came up short in the end. Kind of what was pretty much forecasted with all the talk of a sharp cutoff to the western edge.  If anything seemed overdone (to me locally)  in the end was the NWS PHL statement at 10:30 last night of an additional 10 to 16" after 11 PM or so. We did get a few more inches , but i don't think anywhere near that. It may have been worded that select areas to the east of me would get that. I'm not sure. I guess if that death band had come 15 miles further west it would have verified. I am very aware they cover a wide range of territory and the variances in location, elevation, etc, etc. make it an impossible task to have a forecast or comment apply to all.

It appeared to me that the temp getting down to 29 last evening may have saved us from power issues with the snow becoming drier and not clinging to the trees as much. Our trees were loaded, but not many power outages as could have been if the flakes had been bigger and wetter.  By midnight i saw light blowing snow as compared to what could have been. 

If I have a complaint with the posters on the forum  - I wish everyone would just add their location on posts  or in their visible profile on the left side as it is difficult to know where they are and the forum covers a huge area. We are big on IMBY and for the most part few know where your backyard is. Ex - If you say 34 and light rain. Are you in the Poconos or Delaware. (My 2 cents) 

 

 

[Fields27]

I know its just dumb luck but TWC had most of Berks in the 3-5" and never budged. I think their forecasts are just copy paste of gfs output?

Its just crazy how modeling played out with this storm. GFS definitely had the right idea early and didnt flinch. Obviously shifted totals around through out the week but gfs knew this would be a wound up system while every other model struggled with that. Then GFS started shifting east a couple days out but we kinda dismissed it and rode the NAM and Hrrr with their insane totals well north and west. Both those models shifted way east but only right before game time. I guess the signs were there for us north and west. I think the NWS doubling down and holding onto high totals gave us a false sense of security lol. The writing was on the wall and im never putting that much trust in the NAM more than 24 hours out from a storm.

Does it suck? Yea but life goes on. Still happy a good chunk of the forum cashed in. I didnt have to miss work, barely any clean up. Ya know, silver lining coping going on over here.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[RU848789]

Looks like 21.8" from 10 am measurement is my final total, bringing me to 53.0" for the season; snow has already compacted to about 18" as of 12:00 pm when I checked after my final shoveling. My number looks good given the actual snowfall map below which has most of the 95 corridor and the coast in the 18-24" swath. T

The GFS ruled among all of the models up until the event, but especially several days out latching on to the big phased snowy storm solution when almost every other model was showing a weak, progressive out-to-sea solution, and then I thought the HRRR did quite well with real-time projections once the event started. And great forecast by the NWS, sticking to their guns with the high predictions that many of us thought were too high and it mostly worked out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Picked up another 1.5" since 730am. We are at 18" total for this one. 2 miles up the road in Richboro trained spotter measured 22". Wow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

50" on the dot for the season. Snow started up again.

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Picked up another 1.5" since 730am. We are at 18" total for this one. 2 miles up the road in Richboro trained spotter measured 22". Wow.

It’s somehow still snowing here… lol we might make it to 22” after all…

[RedSky]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like 21.8" from 10 am measurement is my final total, bringing me to 53.0" for the season; snow has already compacted to about 18" as of 12:00 pm when I checked after my final shoveling. My number looks good given the actual snowfall map below which has most of the 95 corridor and the coast in the 18-24" swath. T

The GFS ruled among all of the models up until the event, but especially several days out latching on to the big phased snowy storm solution when almost every other model was showing a weak, progressive out-to-sea solution, and then I thought the HRRR did quite well with real-time projections once the event started. And great forecast by the NWS, sticking to their guns with the high predictions that many of us thought were too high and it mostly worked out.

This has to be the narrowest band of heavy snow in a HECS I have ever seen

No upper level low to spread the wealth and a fast mover

 

 

[Lady Di]

Watch out for the falling snow from roofs, overhangs, trees and wires when outside folks.  Geez!  Evergreens took a beating.

35F and some sunny breaks.

 

[The Iceman]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This has to be the narrowest band of heavy snow in a HECS I have ever seen

No upper level low to spread the wealth and a fast mover

 

 

Fast mover? Bro it’s been snowing for 22 hours here.

[LVblizzard]

Snow is melting quick here. A third of it is gone already.

[RedSky]

17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This has to be the narrowest band of heavy snow in a HECS I have ever seen

No upper level low to spread the wealth and a fast mover

 

 

You know what i mean no stall it is progressive

 

[JTA66]

34 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

Worcester, PA.  Ended up with approx. 12".  Accuweather was a little slow to get there, but with some adjustments their forecast of 10-14 was right on with my 12".  I watched that "death band" last night and it just struggled to move into Montgomery County from Bucks.  Not surprised western Chester and Berks came up short in the end. Kind of what was pretty much forecasted with all the talk of a sharp cutoff to the western edge.  If anything seemed overdone (to me locally)  in the end was the NWS PHL statement at 10:30 last night of an additional 10 to 16" after 11 PM or so. We did get a few more inches , but i don't think anywhere near that. It may have been worded that select areas to the east of me would get that. I'm not sure. I guess if that death band had come 15 miles further west it would have verified. I am very aware they cover a wide range of territory and the variances in location, elevation, etc, etc. make it an impossible task to have a forecast or comment apply to all.

It appeared to me that the temp getting down to 29 last evening may have saved us from power issues with the snow becoming drier and not clinging to the trees as much. Our trees were loaded, but not many power outages as could have been if the flakes had been bigger and wetter.  By midnight i saw light blowing snow as compared to what could have been. 

If I have a complaint with the posters on the forum  - I wish everyone would just add their location on posts  or in their visible profile on the left side as it is difficult to know where they are and the forum covers a huge area. We are big on IMBY and for the most part few know where your backyard is. Ex - If you say 34 and light rain. Are you in the Poconos or Delaware. (My 2 cents) 

 

 

Clearly noticed this while shoveling; a lighter, fluffier snow on top of the base.

[Prairie Dog]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Calling it at 21.8” as we taper to flurries. Not quite 2 feet @LowerBucksWx. Did you guys get there in lower makefield? My brother on river road said he had 21”.

 

He is right  Here is Morrisville   Close by

:2/23/2026,0800 AM, PA, Bucks, 2 SSW Morrisville, , , 40.1763, -74.7889, SNOW_24, 21, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour snowfall,

21 inches  Maybe he reported it