Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[WxMan1]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Onto the Euro

0z very similar to 18z thru hour 18

The only F word I want to hear within the next 1/2 hour or so is FOLKS!

[bncho]

Euro with lower heights out front, but there's more interaction with the NS and SS... SS is a lil bit more amped and is slower

[VBweather]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dude you live in the Bahama's compared to me. And you have more snow than me. Go TF away.

Ok. Since you asked so politely. Going TF away now. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, VBweather said:

Ok. Since you asked so politely. Going TF away now. 

you are welcome here.

[NVAwx]

Dude you live in the Bahama's compared to me. And you have more snow than me. Go TF away.

Yo chill out though. I know that’s not how we talk in the valley.

I asked a question about model performance for a recent storm.

[DDweatherman]

Looking at these runs upstairs, we might STILL be a 12-24 hour window from the final-ish solution. This is such a chaotic and developing situation. Relatively small margins can create huge downstream implications.

[bncho]

the trough on the euro is a little bit sharper too

[clskinsfan]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

It takes longer / further east to go negative tilt.

Shocking I tell ya. We are gonna get jumped without the IVT yall. Just understand what Nino's/Miller B's mean for our climo. A total clownshow. I really need to just abandon this hobby in Nina years. 

[bncho]

less confluence, only negative so far is the lower heights but all of these factors might override that. i dunno yet tho

[ravensrule]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Shocking I tell ya. We are gonna get jumped without the IVT yall. Just understand what Nino's/Miller B's mean for our climo. A total clownshow. I really need to just abandon this hobby in Nina years. 

Dude i love you but Thursday drinking night doesn’t suit you. Just chill. 

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Shocking I tell ya. We are gonna get jumped without the IVT yall. Just understand what Nino's/Miller B's mean for our climo. A total clownshow. I really need to just abandon this hobby in Nina years. 

This isn't a Miller B really.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Shocking I tell ya. We are gonna get jumped without the IVT yall. Just understand what Nino's/Miller B's mean for our climo. A total clownshow. I really need to just abandon this hobby in Nina years. 

In most years the way we’ve been running. Trust me, I didn’t want to get on the plane back from Texas this evening… that weather was mint. We’re damaged goods at this point. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Dude i love you but Thursday drinking night doesn’t suit you. Just chill. 

I just thought about what night it was. Is it him or Wwxluvr that said they get angry Thursday nights?

[ravensrule]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I just thought about what night it was. Is it him or Wwxluvr that said they get angry Thursday nights?

Him. 

[bncho]

Standing by for a call. I'm at hour 65 for the vorts. I dunno what will happen. Looks slightly positively tilted. Stronger SFC low.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I just thought about what night it was. Is it him or Wwxluvr that said they get angry Thursday nights?

Me. Mappy hates me on Thursday nights.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Standing by for a call. I'm at hour 65 for the vorts. I dunno what will happen. Looks slightly positively tilted. Stronger SFC low.

found this from a discord

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Me. Mappy hates me on Thursday nights.

At least you’re more consistent than some of these models 

[wxmeddler]

I'm at H42, southern stream s/w looks slightly deeper and a tad west. The alberta s/w is very strung out over the dakotas. The "middle stream" s/w is getting ahead of the southern s/w. Looks messy.

[LVblizzard]

Euro looks like a hold to me pending the precip maps. It probably won’t be as good north of NYC but south of there it’s similar to 18z.

[DDweatherman]

It seems east of 18z but isn’t earth shattering. A lot of energy aloft to sort through. Some things better aloft coming in, some worse. 

[balltermen]

[bncho]

It's slightly east, but overall it's basically a hold. Much bigger shift from 12z to 18z than 18z to 0z. We're still in it.

[NorthArlington101]

IVT might be pretty nice on this run. Need ptype maps

[jayyy]

Models are still handling the evolution in the 24-48 hour window VASTLY different up top. Wild, but we wait another day for more clarity. Would hate to be NWS tomorrow night

[bncho]

CMC Para

[wxmeddler]

Need the Alberta s/w to either show up in the OHV 12 hrs earlier or just not show up at all. Euro has the messiest of both. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's there, we just need to reel it in.

Collective willpower now, pushing microcosmic energy to distant Canadian shortwaves to position them in just the right places. 

We can do this. 

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Need the Alberta s/w to either show up in the OHV 12 hrs earlier or just not show up at all. Euro has the messiest of both. 

Just a few runs ago, that piece wasn’t really as much of a player, right? 
 

I only really resumed looking at this this afternoon, but I know there’s some differences in evolution there. It wouldn’t be too much weenie casting to say as this new feature gets a little better forecasted/sampled, we might get a little better clarity. 

[baltosquid]

Just a lot of pieces to this. Can pick out so many little features within the larger trough. And every model does things quite differently. Just glad to see the Euro did not pull a one step forward, two steps back from 18z to 00z. Bed time...