40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said: I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78. My dad was from Woburn.....had a ton of pics from that event and they were nuts...he plowed for 24 hours consecutively. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 3 recon flights out right now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, weatherwiz said: My initial thought was something along those lines but the soundings are absolutely nuts. Kind of reminds me of 2013 when we were seeing radar returns like that but it was all snow There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, bristolri_wx said: ? out sampling to feed into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The storm is not gonna stall for and gravy snow for 20 inches after the fact case anybody is wondering if this is gonna match that unless the modeling changes Yea, no one is seeing 50", but I do think 30". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: More like anything past 0hr. I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs. lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased. I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models. The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 staying up for the NAM then bed.. hoping when I wake up at 3 models trended great 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, dendrite said: There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow. Ahhh yes I see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1978 must have been like a 1 in 100 year event or something. 1888 and 1978 are the only two events that come to mind where 40-50 inches was measured in multiple locations for SNE. So maybe later this century we see another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: out sampling to feed into the models Only one that I can see that's specific to this storm. Not sure if the one out in the Pacific is going to be adding anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: staying up for the NAM then bed.. hoping when I wake up at 3 models trended great You sleep? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MegaMike said: lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased. I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models. The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it I feel like some of those models are specifically geared towards ensemble forecasts. You never hear about the NMM or ARW being used on their own as operational runs in forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fantastic work Donny ! Let’s verify. Heading back in the morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MegaMike said: lol I get it. Yea, I remember another meteorologist mentioning that they didn't like the WRF-NMM/ARW models. I've worked with them for a decade, so I guess I'm a bit biased. I think @vortex95 works with the MPAS(?) so I wonder what his thoughts are regarding the WRF models. The RSM must be before my time. I'm not familiar with it I really like the 3k NAM…so much that I really don’t even look at the 12k much anymore except for mid/upper charts that aren’t as readily available with the 3k. I don’t view the SREFs much anymore…ineedsnow forces me to see it. But when they transitioned away from the ETA and RSM members for the NMM and ARW we still kept watchful eyes on it. You would know better than me what the verification stats are, but sensible wx wise I feel like the NMM members performed better. Even with this storm, the SREFs have had some members tracking the sfc low into LI or SE MA. No other operational models are doing that. They’re still pretty far NW at 21z, but every run they keep ticking SE toward the globals But I appreciate all of the work that goes into these models and in trying to further the science and improve the verification and resolution. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: You sleep? barely lol probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: You sleep? He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: barely lol probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though I don't know if any of us can go that long without seeing the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it. Im at work for 12z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, weatherwiz said: I don't know if any of us can go that long without seeing the SREFs storm will be over but Thursday night will be in view hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NAM not as amped as 18z 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: He misses the 00z and 12z runs to sleep but wakes up for 6z to post all by himself. I don’t understand it. He’s my hero 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 00z HRRR slays looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: barely lol probably sleep 12 hours Tuesday though Sleep right through the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: out sampling to feed into the models What model runs would start to import that data into their solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Sleep right through the storm? naw sleep 6pm to 11pm tomorrow then I'll be up until its over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 00z HRRR slays looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run. Seems too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 00z HRRR slays looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run. Any trends up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM not as amped as 18z Lets see 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Sleep right through the storm? That happened to me once I think in 2008. We were having a morning severe event (I think it was the day of the Swanzey, NH F2. I stayed up for like 2 days in a row excited for that morning and fell asleep as things were starting and I missed 1"+ hail at my house 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM not as amped as 18z Yea, I don't love the trends today.....hoping 00z changes, but not a good start, apparently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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