“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro could be right but I’m still hedging toward more amplified for reasons I posted earlier in this thread. It also has not been good at all this season when on an island. 
 

I do think it’s telling though that the “glue factory” posts about the euro are not very plentiful at the moment. Tells me most people don’t believe that rhetoric. 
 

Kevin and Accordions not withstanding. 

Hope you are right and I'm adjusting later this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events.  A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream.  This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment.  It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w.  Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.
 

Tough not to defer to the European suite day 1-3.

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough not to defer to the European suite day 1-3.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Great analysis, and I learn a new vocab work..."DYAD!"

I've picked up a few from Tip  That may be one.

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Prismshine Productions]

Ok you know what that actually looks neat

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Skynet actually looks like a euro/gfs blend. I wonder if the machines are learning how to bake in cross guidance compromise lol. 

[Diggiebot]

https://x.com/surfskiweather/status/2023503020185829583?s=46

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

When he gets shit once again, he'll have another meltdown that we're somehow suppose to care about.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

You Truly Are Exactly as your name states.  Amazing how that works.  

I don't know how many Bleeping times I have to go through the Hell I've gone through the past 10 years with weather, and this winter specifically.  But keep rubbing it in.  You aren't becoming a World Champion or even Town Champion at Anything in life by doing so.  

 

NAM 3K / 12K / 32K for what it's worth All Look like Dog Poo for Both this storm Tomorrow and Friday.  

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Do the Great Lakes being on fire help or hurt our snow chances?

i literally spit out my drink when i read this.

thanks

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You Truly Are Exactly as your name states.  Amazing how that works.  

I don't know how many Bleeping times I have to go through the Hell I've gone through the past 10 years with weather, and this winter specifically.  But keep rubbing it in.  You aren't becoming a World Champion or even Town Champion at Anything in life by doing so.  

 

NAM 3K / 12K / 32K for what it's worth All Look like Dog Poo for Both this storm Tomorrow and Friday.  

I don't understand why you complain about this year on the basis of getting slightly less snow than your neighbors, but wouldn't think this year has compared favorably to the last several in looking, feeling, and acting like a winter. It's the logic I try to work on with my children. You can't only enjoy something in the context of getting more than your sibling, you have to enjoy a good as a good in itself.

It's still more odd because you rely upon statistics as evidence of how screwed you are. Yes, your climo means you should do better on average. That's why you do do better on average! That doesn't mean an injustice has occured when you don't, or anything statistically remarkable has occured.

There are greatest ever storm accumulation maps people post, full of fond memories, that just to look at them makes me relive trauma. None of them have been me getting 3 inches when someone else gets 6 nearby. That is virtually every single snow event. They've been me getting rain, when most of the rest of New England get 1-2 feet. That's why my climo is what it is. If you've been through hell for 10 years as a lover of snow, I'm not sure what my life has been. 

There has been almost a month of continuous snowpack. I've used this to cross country ski for weeks on end, even though I wasn't here for the storm. My kids got to sled, and sled, and sled.

Has it been meteorologically incredible given all the cold? Not statistically, no. And no real stormy storms. But why are you aggrieved at some folks around ri getting a few inches more snow than you ytd, but not concomitantly relieved that it hasn't been a non-existent winter like we've had recently. I haven't cracked double digits seasonal snowfall in recent winters!

This winter do far is remarkable for one thing - continuous snowpack. It's almost dead. I have enjoyed it immensely for one. I'm not sure what purpose it serves not to.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i literally spit out my drink when i read this.

thanks

Beer?

[MJO812]

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beer?

Red bull

it gives you snowings 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

I've been leaning that way, doesn't mean it still can't happen but i think its more likely a whiff/scraper than not, 40/60. 

Icon also went from a major storm at 12z yesterday, to a complete whiff open wave last night, back to a major snowstorm at 12z today so a lot still needs to be worked out.

Still the euro not biting was a big flag. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I've been leaning that way, doesn't mean it still can't happen but i think its more likely a whiff/scraper than not, 40/60. 

Icon also went from a major storm at 12z yesterday, to a complete whiff open wave last night, back to a major snowstorm at 12z today so a lot still needs to be worked out.

Still the euro not biting was a big flag. 

I don't think I have ever seen ALL models show a major hit and just one model show nothing and that one model being correct.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Icon caved.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon is a complete whiff, in a nod to the euro.

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Icon caved.

The tenor that everyone has loved to talk about this year in a positive way also conveniently leaves out that part of that “tenor” is this area being completely absent of any coastal storms.

Where this is headed is disappointing, but entirely predictable 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

I'm sure it will come back again, and then @ineedsnowwill cling to the Bulgarian ensembles for a couple of days, but there probably isn't going to be a blizzard.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't think I have ever seen ALL models show a major hit and just one model show nothing and that one model being correct.

not consistently though it was really just 12Z today, if you're talking OP models. 12Z GEM yesterday had no storm, 00Z started to come on board. GFS has had a storm but kinda waffling a bit between a scraper and more of a direct hit.

At this range i was more focused on the ensembles and 12Z GEFS was pretty tepid and SE, as well as the EPS. With some amped/W members in there. GEPS probably had the best mean but still well SE of the BM

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure it will come back again, and then @ineedsnowwill cling to the Bulgarian ensembles for a couple of days, but there probably isn't going to be a blizzard.

don't forget MOGREPS and ICONEPS

tbh i've been looking at them, out of curiosity. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's often correct when it's the lone voice of dissent and sucks.

 

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs bot kicked se again. That’s like 10 straight moves se now. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The tenor that everyone has loved to talk about this year in a positive way also conveniently leaves out that part of that “tenor” is this area being completely absent of any coastal storms.

Where this is headed is disappointing, but entirely predictable 

Nearly completely absent of coastals, but on track for a climo season for the first time in half a decade. It doesn’t need to be pretty. Production is all that matters. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs bot kicked se again. That’s like 10 straight moves se now. 

At least the tease came at like day 5-6 and not 2-3. Won’t have to waste the rest of the week tracking ghosts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Nearly completely absent of coastals, but on track for a climo season for the first time in half a decade. It doesn’t need to be pretty. Production is all that matters. 

Just about a decade of buttah-face seasons....due for a lookah.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Nearly completely absent of coastals, but on track for a climo season for the first time in half a decade. It doesn’t need to be pretty. Production is all that matters. 

I don’t disagree, we had a pretty special SWFE. However, in context of this event, I think the odds are fading fast with each model run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At least the tease came at like day 5-6 and not 2-3. Won’t have to waste the rest of the week tracking ghosts 

Trust me, some will. It will com back again to some extent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

At least the tease came at like day 5-6 and not 2-3. Won’t have to waste the rest of the week tracking ghosts 

It Actually recovered and still closed off along or just se the bm.