Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Nibor]

This shift on the AI euro gives the other western guidance some legitimacy.

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, Noteaster101 said:

I’m driving to Atlantic City 110% if this pans out!

It’s won’t pan out there. We’re still 4-5 days out. You don’t want to be in the bullseye at this range 

[Wxbear25]

yup, that ridge is able to bubble up between the upper level features, creating almost a mini Omega-block look

Causes our ULL to slow down and tilt rather than continue to swing positively towards the coast

nice move from the AIFS, now lets see if the OP sees the same thing

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/19 EURO AI AIFS  Total QPf

 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

yup, that ridge is able to bubble up between the upper level features, creating almost a mini Omega-block look

Causes our ULL to slow down and tilt rather than continue to swing positively towards the coast

nice move from the AIFS, now lets see if the OP sees the same thing

Op is ass

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Op is ass

Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol

[Nibor]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol

It's out to sea. Maybe a hair east of 18z.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1/19 EURO AI AIFS  Total QPf

 

Aifs eps is also further west

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Op is ass

Outlier right now

[Nibor]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Outlier right now

Drunk Unkle agrees with it. The AI euro shifting west was huge though.

[LVblizzard]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Outlier right now

Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome.

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Is that a general statement, or a specific one pertaining to this run, I only have it out to 66 on Pivotal lol

This run

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome.

Gefs was with the euro but it shifted way further west.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome.

Icon is by far the worst global and the NAM at 84 or extrapolating past 84 should be weighted 0%. I'd say that regardless it's a terrible model in the short term let alone 60 or 84hrs out. 

The Euro/UK being OTS is the real concern, not the NAM/Icon powerhouse. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Overall the EC is worse than 18Z but better than 12Z

The CMC para is a tick SE of the OP, but improved a lot from its 12Z run. 

[MJO812]

Euro still gives us a few inches even with the low way overshore.

[MJO812]

Eps is also improved.  Nice trends. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is also improved.  Nice trends. 

you have some weenievista maps, wxbell isn't out yet

[The 4 Seasons]

Oh yeah the mean went up on the EPS and AIEPS with several big hits in there about 8-10 on the EPS

[RU848789]

Model Mayhem continues.  So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow.  If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Model Mayhem continues.  So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow.  If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps.

The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close 

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS op is definitely an outlier with the ridiculous amount of snow it’s showing in southern NJ, Delmarva, Maryland. No other model shows anything even remotely close 

It's an outlier within that group, but it belongs in that group relative to the other 3, as it's much closer to the CMC/AIFS on track and having at least significant snowfall, especially at the coast.  

[The 4 Seasons]

23 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Model Mayhem continues.  So, at 0Z, the Euro/UK/ICON all have the surface low move ENE from Cape Hatteras with very robust precip fields (with snow on the NW side of those fields) that are just too far SE to do much for people who live on land, while the GFS/CMC/AIFS/Weathernext2 have surface lows that move ENE from about Norfolk, 100+ miles N or Hatteras, with robust precip fields which are close enough to land to put down a lot of snow at the coast and lesser amounts as one goes inland. Which camp do I believe? No idea, but I will say that the fact that the 0Z Euro ensemble mean is well NW of the Op Euro tells me that the Op Euro has a decent chance of being a bit of a SE outlier and that it should move NW and show more snow.  If that were the case, that would tip the balance towards a snowier solution, IMO, since right now, the two best models (Euro-AIFS and Euro-Op) are in different camps.

What exactly does Weathernext2 show and where do you see it?

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What exactly does Weathernext2 show and where do you see it?

Slightly west of 18z 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Slightly west of 18z 

thanks. saw it did very good on the Jan 25-26th storm, just curious about it. too many models..