Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

@AlexD1990gets a foot on the UKMET, also features DC snow anus

If BOX gets 2' while I get .8" the year I move down here I'm leaving for spring break and never coming back

[mitchnick]

This is Ukie storm qpf.

[Jake Wx]

Just now, mitchnick said:

This is Ukie storm qpf.

If the ukmet was stupid with thermals that run the snow amounts would have been pretty

[bncho]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

If the ukmet was stupid with thermals that run the snow amounts would have been pretty

you said the soundings were snow... could you pull them up?

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

you said the soundings were snow... could you pull them up?

 

[mitchnick]

I'll be shocked if Euro doesn't jump on board with something along the lines of a bomb this run.

[bncho]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

 

That's 100% wet snow IMO

[mitchnick]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

 

Yeah, but look at surface temp. That's why accumulations are lousy.

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yeah, but look at surface temp. That's why accumulations are lousy.

There's just no accumulations at all, lol. It outputs it as rain 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

That's 100% wet snow IMO

Temps crash after that

[AlexD1990]

Ugh, I think the majority of us would give anything that was asked if we could get the whole sub this storm 

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll be shocked if Euro doesn't jump on board with something along the lines of a bomb this run.

Got a feeling its gonna be a dud because it always does this when other models have hits for some reason

[bncho]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

Got a feeling its gonna be a dud because it always does this when other models have hits for some reason

It's called Dr. No for a reason

[Solution Man]

Reel this one in and call it a winter until March of course 

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

There's just no accumulations at all, lol. It outputs it as rain 

The "best guess" precipitation is not always accurate, nor the precip type on the maps. I think you probably have a mix with very wet snow dominant which is lousy for accumulations. Jmho

[Ji]

I'll be shocked if Euro doesn't jump on board with something along the lines of a bomb this run.

You don’t know Dr no

[midatlanticweather]

Miller B will likelyhavw a big screw zone. I do not want to be Raleigh 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

You don’t know Dr no

It's the new Dr. No that's living off It's old reputation imho.

By the way, Gefs look like cr@p with snowfall, so don't bother looking. 

[Amped]

The closest 500mb analogs to this setup are probably March 1958 and December 1992. Not that its going to play out like either of those at the surface.

[psuhoffman]

How’s the @Maestrobjwa storm coming along. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

How’s the @Maestrobjwa storm coming along. 

Get ready to be fringed.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

The closest 500mb analogs to this setup are probably March 1958 and December 1992. Not that its going to play out like either of those at the surface.

I was talking to @TSSN+ and @HighStakes earlier this evening and said March 58 was a decent analog in terms of the general setup. March 58 maxed out so don’t expect that. The issue with analogs is often the analog used was the max event for that type of pattern and 99/100 repeats of the same setup won’t reach that level or extreme. Although the potential exists if it went perfectly. A more likely outcome is always a less extreme version. 

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, bncho said:

tf is the UKMET doing with the thermals??

 

Now if they did happen can it go in my book?

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like I said, I  can see where this is going, and it's east with the goodies in keeping with Niña tradition. 

That is a very valid concern and odds favor a miss to the east in a Nina but not EVERY time goes that way, so we can’t just assume. But yes my biggest fear would be a weaker primary with a late bombing tightly wound miller b that crushes east of us. That’s the hecs MO for Nina 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Now if they did happen can it go in my book?

That is a very valid concern and odds favor a miss to the east in a Nina but not EVERY time goes that way, so we can’t just assume. But yes my biggest fear would be a weaker primary with a late bombing tightly wound miller b that crushes east of us. That’s the hecs MO for Nina 

That's the lean so far with every model that shows a storm. EuroAI is now running, but I  wouldn't expect it to pick up on that nuance at this stage...but it could based on our luck I suppose. 

[Nomz]

Euro running. Someone up for PBP?

[bncho]

AI south and east

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's the lean so far with every model that shows a storm. EuroAI is now running, but I  wouldn't expect it to pick up on that nuance at this stage...but it could based on our luck I suppose. 

Ggem just came around. I’d wait a run to assume it’s settled on a final idea. All the guidance right now still has a healthy enough primary that we get a good snowstorm of not the HECS places east of us would get. There is time to see it adjust either way.  My bigger fear is the primary trends dryer and it becomes a pure miller b which would carry the threat of a real screw job up here. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

AI south and east

2 things. 1, it's definitely learning. And 2, let's everyone quit putting this thing on a pedestal, because it jumps around with the rest of them.

[coastal front]

Still gets down below 980mb so still a monster. Just not as much altitude gain

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

2 things. 1, it's definitely learning. And 2, let's everyone quit putting this thing on a pedestal, because it jumps around with the rest of them.

It's also 7 days out, if it wasn't jumping around 7 days out, it would have been the greatest thing in meteorology since like weather baloons lol