Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Interstate]

Saturday is going to one of those times I hate CAD!!

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

All winter they have been hawking warm just to bail out later. They have been deeply unserious this winter, lol

That week is probably our last legit shot until next year.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude we’re getting a 97-98 redux lol

Still have PTSD from that.  Seriously.  .10 for the year.

[stormtracker]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You could say today's Euro weeklies cooled down a bit starting week 3. Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202603020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202603230000

It ain't over until we say it is!

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still have PTSD from that.  Seriously.  .10 for the year.

Had 3 perfect track phasing bomb 40F rainstorms that winter. If Nino is moderate to strong I’d feel pretty optimistic. If it’s a super Nino, back your umbrella

[Terpeast]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Had 3 perfect track phasing bomb 40F rainstorms that winter. If Nino is moderate to strong I’d feel pretty optimistic. If it’s a super Nino, back your umbrella

That was awful. Mountains from SC north got buried

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

If Nino is moderate to strong I’d feel pretty optimistic. If it’s a super Nino, back your umbrella

This is a little bit of a misconception. Does a Super La Nina mean brutal cold? 

[konksw]

3 hours ago, Interstate said:

Saturday is going to one of those times I hate CAD!!

Only really shows up like that on the GFS op. All the ensembles, Euro, GEM, show a toasty Saturday. 

 

[Weather Will]

45 minutes ago, konksw said:

Only really shows up like that on the GFS op. All the ensembles, Euro, GEM, show a toasty Saturday. 

 

WB 18Z EURO is much colder for Friday.  NBC4 Kammerer's Fantastic Friday is in jeopardy.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, konksw said:

Only really shows up like that on the GFS op. All the ensembles, Euro, GEM, show a toasty Saturday. 

 

 

 

Both the Euro and AIFS are showing it at some point between Thursday and Sunday, though the exact timing has been bouncing around.  I suspect one of these days is going to be a lot cooler than currently forecast.

[Interstate]

4 hours ago, konksw said:

Only really shows up like that on the GFS op. All the ensembles, Euro, GEM, show a toasty Saturday. 

 

Well now it is the GFS, ICON, UK, and Euro all have the CAD signature, at least for my neck of the woods up here in Northern MD.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO gives us two waves of digital snow to watch. Only 13 days of tracking to go.....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO gives us two waves of digital snow to watch. Only 13 days of tracking to go.....

Models have really come around to a better looking Pacific.. 

[Heisy]

This strong front keeps showing up on the euro Ai and euro to a degree. It’s also on the EPS. Around day 8-9. We saw the euro have that fantasy event. It was also loading up at the very end of the run. It’s a +PNA pattern, but not much blocking showing up so probably would have to time waves perfectly

[Heisy]

WB 0Z EURO gives us two waves of digital snow to watch. Only 13 days of tracking to go.....

Just for fun, it’s March whatever ha, but this was about to be a massive nor’easter, and cold/frozen by the looks of it

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just for fun, it’s March whatever ha, but this was about to be a massive nor’easter, and cold/frozen by the looks of it

This is it.  This is the way

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

This is it.  This is the way

Open a new March thread and make it happen!

[Scraff]

Let’s give this last opportunity a go! I don’t have any chips left though. Anyone got some I can borrow? Will trade you for beers. 

[WxUSAF]

GFS and GGEM not too aggressive with the BDCF late this week. NAM does look aggressive, but at the end of range obviously.

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude we’re getting a 97-98 redux lol

if we have an east based super nino heading into fall...then yea best to just assume the winter is going to be a dead ratter.  I know you were joking but some do just automatically assume Nino=Snow.  Which is funny because I remember after we had 3 dead ratter nino's in a row, 1992, 1995, and 1998, the prevailing thought before 2003 was Nino=warm snowless winter lol.  Then we had a run of extremely snowy nino's and it flipped the other way.  The truth is somewhere in between and that it depends on the details.