Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Jake Wx]

Would the nam have been good ?

[TSSN+]

Long way to go with this one. Lots of adjustments in models to continue for next 2 days at least. 

[psuhoffman]

Things are still trending...this is not the final outcome we are seeing today.  But everything is trending the way we want for now.  That's all I'm taking from this.  UK was nice except freaking torched at the surface...would have been a nice 4-8" snow across the area if it wasn't so damn warm at the surface.   

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

And the one model that really hasn't shifted its solution much in the last 24 hours....you already know.

[ravensrule]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

And the one model that really hasn't shifted its solution much in the last 24 hours....you already know.

It will in less than an hour. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

And the one model that really hasn't shifted its solution much in the last 24 hours....you already know.

Not exactly 

 

[Weather Will]

Nice looks today, but I would characterize it more as a windshield wiper going back and forth- no real trends yet. Plus it only really matters what the EURO and its AI show...the rest of the models are just not in the same league putting it kindly...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, ravensrule said:

It will in less than an hour. 

I was talking about the Euro AI which has continuously showed snow for us for many runs in a row now.

[dailylurker]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

a lot of changes still happening...but I need to know how a sub 990 low tracking INSIDE Hatteras ends up mostly missing us! 

Salisbury always gets 25" while Parrs Ridge gets 4". Toss lol

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

Would the nam have been good ?

 It's the nam at 84 hours so it wouldn't matter  if it was good. Nam at 84 hours is as useful as the letter "g" in the word lasagna 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not exactly 

 

Those are definitely favorable shifts last 3 runs!!

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

And the one model that really hasn't shifted its solution much in the last 24 hours....you already know.

No I don't know...every single model has shifted quite a bit...Euro had been the only steady one and then it shifted last run...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No I don't know...every single model has shifted quite a bit...Euro had been the only steady one and then it shifted last run...

The Euro AI!  It has shown snow for us many runs in a row now.

[Lowershoresadness]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Salisbury always gets 25" while Parrs Ridge gets 4". Toss lol

I asked my AI girlfriend if Salisbury could get 3 feet of snow. She said "we need to talk"

[winter_warlock]

So far most models have trended better at 12z!! Now we wait on the king!!! 

[bncho]

@Jake Wx I was probably too quick to cancel this storm. I wasn't really paying any attention to h5 and didn't notice the 67 different vorts. There's gonna be a lot of variability due to that...

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

So far most models have trended better at 12z!! Now we wait on the king!!! 

[bncho]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

So far most models have trended better at 12z!! Now we wait on the king!!! 

If the AI Euro drops 20" this place will explode

[Shad]

Euro AI has been the leader in this evolution so far....not saying its right but its definitely leading the pack

[Weather Will]

Before the WB 12Z EURO suite runs:  AI since 12Z yesterday:

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Before the 12Z EURO suite runs:  AI since 12Z yesterday:

This is what I'm saying!  It hasn't really changed much, it's changing the QPF but it never shit the bed totally and went dry or just IVT....

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The Euro AI!  It has shown snow for us many runs in a row now.

I guess if you don't differentiate between 24" and 4" lol 

[nw baltimore wx]

@Weather Will just can't help himself. 

[winter_warlock]

 I like where WPC project the storm to go on Sunday and Monday

 Good placement of the low.. IMO

[Weather Will]

Before the WB 12Z EURO runs since 12Z yesterday;

[baltosquid]

The Euro AI does change but it doesn’t tend to make big jumps in this range… it did however tick NW at 06z and had some h5 changes that track with the more amped look we have seen across 12z guidance, so hopefully that continues. Should know in 20 minutes or so!

[WesternFringe]

23 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You know how this works out right?

No, no one does.  That is why we are all here tracking the models run to run. 

If you know how this works out, you should tell us and save us all the time we are investing into tracking.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess if you don't differentiate between 24" and 4" lol 

I guess back to 0z Monday it was showing the big dog, but I think all yesterday it was fairly consistent.  Def more consistent than everything else that's for sure. 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

If the AI Euro drops 20" this place will explode

 Yes it will 

[BristowWx]

24 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

A definite jump west on CMC compared to 00z!

 

not just that jump west but 995 to 971...I'd say that's a tick stronger