2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[yoda]

@CAPE would like the 12z RRFS

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, yoda said:

@CAPE would like the 12z RRFS

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

If this happens I’m offing myself. 

[paulythegun]

12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS compared to 6Z.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

@CAPE would like the 12z RRFS

Hell, I wouldn’t mind either. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward

100% believable.  

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

100% believable.  

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.

[Weather Will]

So question is whether this is a blip, new trend, or final solution???? 

[87storms]

So what time is the rain supposed to start tomorrow?

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.

Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week 

[DDweatherman]

In weenie fashion, what I’m taking from the “ass” models - SREF, RRFS, etc. is that they made huge moves from 6z to 12z, much like the 3k Nam did and even the 12k to some extent. At least lends credence to that crack rock the gfs has been smokin on since last night.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week 

We’d all welcome and accept with open arms. Something tells me the final chapter on this one isn’t written yet.

That said, the euro will probably do what it’s been good at recently…lead us all down a dark alley then leave us for dead 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

@CAPE would like the 12z RRFS

lol

It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air'

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week 

We pray with childlike faith.

[bncho]

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? 

Need it to also be good at qpf in this case…

[NorthArlington101]

RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS.

But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? 

It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure.

[87storms]

Just now, CAPE said:

lol

It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air'

There’s a better chance that Vince Carter wins the dunk contest this weekend.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS.  Looks like a move of the low center 25-50 miles west is still possible.

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS.

But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Alright @psuhoffman weenie model or no...THIS is an example of what should be able to happen, right? And even the NAM...low got deeper, solution got colder...

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS.

But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose

Fv3 6z to 12z was much improved so I wouldn’t tie that directly to gfs. 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? 

No model is ever good here at cold chasing precip…it’s probably our most miserable type of setup.

[WxUSAF]

Glad to be asleep for most of this 

[mitchnick]

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it

[bncho]

Are we reeling this one in?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

Are we reeling this one in?

If it snows 4” I’m getting a tattoo of Roy Orbison.