yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 @CAPE would like the 12z RRFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, yoda said: @CAPE would like the 12z RRFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: If this happens I’m offing myself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WB 12Z RRFS compared to 6Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, yoda said: @CAPE would like the 12z RRFS Hell, I wouldn’t mind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 12z RFFS (pronounced Arfs!) model. Used 10 to 1 to distort the snow upward 100% believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: 100% believable. Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So question is whether this is a blip, new trend, or final solution???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So what time is the rain supposed to start tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year. Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In weenie fashion, what I’m taking from the “ass” models - SREF, RRFS, etc. is that they made huge moves from 6z to 12z, much like the 3k Nam did and even the 12k to some extent. At least lends credence to that crack rock the gfs has been smokin on since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week We’d all welcome and accept with open arms. Something tells me the final chapter on this one isn’t written yet. That said, the euro will probably do what it’s been good at recently…lead us all down a dark alley then leave us for dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, yoda said: @CAPE would like the 12z RRFS lol It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week We pray with childlike faith. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, bncho said: The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? Need it to also be good at qpf in this case… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS. But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, bncho said: The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, CAPE said: lol It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air' There’s a better chance that Vince Carter wins the dunk contest this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WB 12Z RRFS. Looks like a move of the low center 25-50 miles west is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS. But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Alright @psuhoffman weenie model or no...THIS is an example of what should be able to happen, right? And even the NAM...low got deeper, solution got colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS. But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose Fv3 6z to 12z was much improved so I wouldn’t tie that directly to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, bncho said: The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right? No model is ever good here at cold chasing precip…it’s probably our most miserable type of setup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Glad to be asleep for most of this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z. I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Are we reeling this one in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, bncho said: Are we reeling this one in? If it snows 4” I’m getting a tattoo of Roy Orbison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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