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2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust


bncho
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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I always get missed unless there's no chance of rain and I'm in the middle of staining a huge deck. Only one tiny cell in the entire state. That's when I get hit lol

You have a huge deck?. Unfortunately mine is small and nobody enjoys sitting on it. 

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5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No lol. My business restores decks and pavers. I could restore your deck and it would be beautiful. You'll love sitting on it after im done. 

Good to know. I have a Bluestone porch so i couldn't use your services, but if i have any friends i will definitely keep you in mind. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah AI is way north with precipitation 

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it.  Especially for places NW of 95!  It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified.  I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow.   Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet.  We've tracked worse odds things than this.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it.  Especially for places NW of 95!  It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified.  I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow.   Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet.  We've tracked worse odds things than this.  

Talk dirty to me. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This honestly is the most tease storm I've seen.  When we're about to give up, the EURO/AI comes in and dangles the bait just close enough that we think we can reach it.   Hope is a dangerous thing in this game.

Just opened this thread after not looking since the 06 6z Euro, and... Damn it. I'm still in

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This honestly is the most tease storm I've seen.  When we're about to give up, the EURO/AI comes in and dangles the bait just close enough that we think we can reach it.   Hope is a dangerous thing in this game.

For the last 48 hours with the exception of that one crazy euro run that went nuts...what we've seen is pretty consistent across guidance IMO.  There are clearly two main likely permutations here.  If the wave is weaker and too much energy gets focused on that frontrunner secondary the storm slides south.  If the wave is just a bit more amplified and or focuses on the main STJ wave we have the chance of some snow.  The snow idea pops up randomly across about 20% of the guidance because that's probably about the odds of that solution.  So we keep randomly seeing that idea pop up on something.  That result is still in there...still a possible option, we just need to thread the needle with the amplitude and track of the wave.  

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