2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I always get missed unless there's no chance of rain and I'm in the middle of staining a huge deck. Only one tiny cell in the entire state. That's when I get hit lol

You have a huge deck?. Unfortunately mine is small and nobody enjoys sitting on it. 

[midatlanticweather]

[psuhoffman]

OMG have you seen the UKMET?

 

 

 

it shows absolutely nothing 

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You have a huge deck?. Unfortunately mine is small and nobody enjoys sitting on it. 

No lol. My business restores decks and pavers. I could restore your deck and it would be beautiful. You'll love sitting on it after im done. 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No lol. My business restores decks and pavers. I could restore your deck and it would be beautiful. You'll love sitting on it after im done. 

Good to know. I have a Bluestone porch so i couldn't use your services, but if i have any friends i will definitely keep you in mind. 

[bncho]

12z EURO AIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

[WxUSAF]

Yeah AI is way north with precipitation 

[Weather Will]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah AI is way north with precipitation 

Can you pin this thread?  Thanks.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z EURO AIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

Could be right because it skips right over us.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO AI total precip. compared to 6Z

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah AI is way north with precipitation 

All the models go to what it had been showing being south then it decides to flip the other way now lol 

[bncho]

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO AI total precip. compared to 6Z

We get 1-2 inches of snow out of .86 QPF.    Lot or rain in there somewhere

[stormtracker]

Euro has precip entire while 850 is sub zero, but it's light

[stormtracker]

It's close as fuck in the next panel

[stormtracker]

[baltosquid]

This thing is gonna bait us so hard, isn’t it

[bncho]

LFG!!!

[stormtracker]

Lose complete thermals after that panel, but it's pulling away

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's close as fuck in the next panel

As in me being 60 miles North of you makes me happy?. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EURO Low is intensifying more this run which is great, but a little too far off the coast this run. We need perfect track and intensity for this to work with marginal temps.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah AI is way north with precipitation 

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it.  Especially for places NW of 95!  It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified.  I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow.   Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet.  We've tracked worse odds things than this.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

This thing is gonna bait us so hard, isn’t it

This honestly is the most tease storm I've seen.  When we're about to give up, the EURO/AI comes in and dangles the bait just close enough that we think we can reach it.   Hope is a dangerous thing in this game.

[ravensrule]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't think this is likely, but at the same time I am a little surprised so many have totally given up on it.  Especially for places NW of 95!  It's actually trended colder the last 24 hours...now we really just need the wave to end up a little more amplified.  I can remember plenty of times we were in worse shape at 72 hours and got some snow.   Not saying this is likely, just that it's not such a crazy long shot that its time to be saying NEXT yet.  We've tracked worse odds things than this.  

Talk dirty to me. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

As in me being 60 miles North of you makes me happy?. 

Sure,  ok.  Yeah

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This honestly is the most tease storm I've seen.  When we're about to give up, the EURO/AI comes in and dangles the bait just close enough that we think we can reach it.   Hope is a dangerous thing in this game.

Just opened this thread after not looking since the 06 6z Euro, and... Damn it. I'm still in

[nw baltimore wx]

I see the thread got pinned. Storms are always better when AmWx is playing catch up.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Just opened this thread after not looking since the 06 6z Euro, and... Damn it. I'm still in

I'm still not a believer, but I'm going to follow

[hstorm]

Wasn't yesterday's prevailing wisdom that the Euro AI never wavers and had already put the nail in the coffin on this storm?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This honestly is the most tease storm I've seen.  When we're about to give up, the EURO/AI comes in and dangles the bait just close enough that we think we can reach it.   Hope is a dangerous thing in this game.

For the last 48 hours with the exception of that one crazy euro run that went nuts...what we've seen is pretty consistent across guidance IMO.  There are clearly two main likely permutations here.  If the wave is weaker and too much energy gets focused on that frontrunner secondary the storm slides south.  If the wave is just a bit more amplified and or focuses on the main STJ wave we have the chance of some snow.  The snow idea pops up randomly across about 20% of the guidance because that's probably about the odds of that solution.  So we keep randomly seeing that idea pop up on something.  That result is still in there...still a possible option, we just need to thread the needle with the amplitude and track of the wave.