2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^That's probably why the GLAAM goes so positive. 

[Jebman]

I have a question: If this record Nino goes very very very very very far east-based, does this mean places far west like Texas will end up missing out of some or most of the rain? Someone in an earlier post stated the Nino will be extremely far east-based, and the convection will follow it OUCH! That, does not sound very good for all of us DRY PARCHED TEXANS. Man that would be a massive BUMMER. Because I crave floods Floods FLOODS FLOODS!!!!

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

July 2026 PDO: -2.03

 

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

 That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb.

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

Based solely on the url, it looks like v5 (version 5?) is the lower number and v6 (version 6?) is the higher number.

[snowman19]

This thermocline is ridiculous

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

This one shows -1.29 

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This one labels it as -2.03

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 

That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason.

[bluewave]

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

Southern hemisphere appears to be better synced with the el nino, though. Not perfectly, but close. Troughs and ridges look to be approximately in the same places, albeit slightly off. S Pac looks like split flow, aiding those record snows in the Chilean Andes. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Southern hemisphere appears to be better synced with the el nino, though. Not perfectly, but close. Troughs and ridges look to be approximately in the same places, albeit slightly off. S Pac looks like split flow, aiding those record snows in the Chilean Andes. 

Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America.

Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer.

This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper. 

[snowman19]

A small area of +10C is starting to develop in the subsurface

[PhiEaglesfan712]

MJJ 2026 ONI (NOAA): +1.4

MJJ 2026 RONI: +1.0

AMJ 2026 ONI (Eric Webb): +1.0 [NOAA's value came at +0.9]

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 
 

 

 

Not exactly strong correlations to begin with in the NH, with the exception of the low southwest of the Aleutian’s that appears to be displaced about 60 degrees east. 

[LakePaste25]

For the NH at least, it appears to be a better fit for +PMM, which is an actual pattern driver much more so than the PDO.

 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

For the NH at least, it appears to be a better fit for +PMM, which is an actual pattern driver much more so than the PDO.

 

Completely agree about the PMMS. Once we get into met fall and the effects in the NH start to become much more pronounced, I think that’s when we see a big pattern shift along with the change in the PDO. The +IOD just got going at the tail end of July. Once that strengthens throughout the fall and starts constructively interfering/coupling with El Niño, that’s when the big changes in the NH really get going